China’s Slow Motion Collapse?

The Chinese may “boast” that Peking University is one of the world’s best, “but no people really believe that.” Nowadays in China, he says, “the middle-class and rich persons and officials’ children—they’re sent to the U.S. to study. They know which schools are good and which are worse.” President Xi and his disgraced former rival, Bo Xilai, chose Harvard for their children.

…”Within 10 to 15 years,” he believes, China’s Communist Party will collapse. “I’m very optimistic about that.” _WSJ

At first and second glance, China is an inscrutable country, full of contradictions. Rich with cash, and still boasting economic growth better than its more developed trading partners, China can nevertheless not keep its best and most competent people home.

Corruption is rife not only in business, government, and finance — but also in academia and science. And Chinese cities continue filling up with ghosts.

China’s new leaders are tightening the grip of the Chinese police state, while attempting to regain the former skyrocketing rates of economic performance of the last decade.

It is difficult to find an Asian nation with whom China does not have serious conflict. Despite trade, Japan, Russia, and India in particular have serious issues with the dragon, to say nothing of the China Sea neighbors who are grappling with China for rich oil reserves.

China would like to wait out Russia, India, and the west — let them collapse of their own corruption and demographic decline. But China does not have the time. China’s strong men of the regions are in constant contention for power. Historically, Chinese empires tend to break up into warring territories. War against a foreign power is likely to be the nationalistic glue to hold the loyalties of the masses.

For the present, China is using its economic leverage to strengthen its military, and to spread its influence across Africa, Latin America, and much of the rest of the third world. Investments in energy are being made wherever possible, including the Anglosphere.

If you want to know what is going to happen in your backyard, sometimes it pays to keep a lookout across the pond. Michael Pettis and Patrick Chovanec will help with that.

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2 Responses to China’s Slow Motion Collapse?

  1. Matt Musson says:

    I cannot help but wonder what would happen to Asia following a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel. A wounded Israel might act the spoilsport and effectively shut down middle east oil exports for a generation.

  2. alfin2101 says:

    The best of Iran left that country a long time ago. Russia and China like to keep Iran around, just like junkyard owners like to keep vicious dogs around. A buffer layer of sorts.

    Israel, on the other hand, enjoys a healthy exchange of people, trade, and ideas with a large number of countries. If you want to talk about wounded and spiteful countries that want to pay the world back for its perceived sins against the faithful, Iran looks to be your man.

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