The article below claims that Russia’s population is currently growing at a slow rate.
Russia’s population is actually growing, not shrinking, although its growth is very, very small. While the population was shrinking in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, at the moment it is slowly growing. Despite this, it’s likely that the population will shrink again between now and the next ten or twenty years, as the country’s very smalll growth is completely driven by immigration, not natural growth.
While projections into the future of Russia are very difficult, it’s estimated that Russia will fall from the 9th most populous country to 17th by 2050. Russian Prime Minister Vladmir Putin has announced that he plans to boost Russia’s dwindling population by encouraging immigration and higher birth rates, but estimates show that Russia’s population will drop from 2013’s 143 million to only 107 million by 2050. __ Russia Population
Has the Russian population finally recovered from the disastrous demographic collapse that started in the Soviet era, and continued through the turbulent transition, well into the current neo-imperial phase? Putin says everything is fine, and his media associates in Russia and abroad agree with him. But is it possible for government statistics to mislead, even in Russia where the media speaks with one voice?
While Russia’s population began to fall in absolute terms in 1992, the seeds of the decline were planted two decades earlier. In the mid-1960s, when Stalin-era policies to promote childbirth ended, birth rates began to decline and death rates edged up.
Indeed, the birth rate today of 12.5 per 1,000 people is less than half the Stalin-era high of 26.9 in 1950. The death rate, at 14.2 per 1,000 people, is also almost double that of 1960, when the figure was 7.4.
Krupnov believes the total number of premature deaths that can be attributed to the collapse of the economic system is in the order of 10m-20m people. This compares with the figure of roughly 22m deaths in the second world war.
The problem is not just confined to Russia. Serious population decline is also affecting other eastern European countries, including Ukraine, Bulgaria and Hungary. _FT
The demographic trends of Russia’s cities are distinctly different than the trends in the countryside:
Russia’s depopulation, while more or less a country-wide phenomenon, is not uniform across all Russian territories; there is considerable regional variation within this overall national average. Not all oblasts even experience negative natural increase; in 2006, 20 of Russia’s 89 oblasts reported more births than deaths. These areas tend to be where ethnic and religious minorities are overrepresented.
… Combined male and female life expectancy at age 15 is lower than for some “lower middle income economies,” such as India. Male-only life expectancy at age 15 is one of the lowest in the world, lower than many of the World Bank’s “low income economies” such as Haiti and Benin. Russian male life expectancy at this age even ranks below the “failed state” of Somalia. Although Russia has experienced depopulation four times in the last century, the most recent occurrence is unique as it is occurring in peacetime rather than as a result of war or state-directed violence. The causes and solutions of the problem are therefore more complex than in the past. _Putin’s Russia
Russia’s ethnic minority population is growing the most rapidly, through both immigration and differential birth rates.
Russian populations have been in chaotic flux for decades, and are now poised on the brink of a particularly steep plunge.
Russia’s phenomenal run of prosperity would have been an ideal time to diversify the economy beyond energy, a goal that harks back to the days of Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. Instead, energy’s share of the economy actually increased; as of late 2012, oil and gas accounted for about 70 percent of exports, compared with less than 50 percent in the mid-1990s, providing half of the government’s revenue and roughly 17 percent of GDP, according to the EBRD. Gazprom alone represents 14 percent of the Russian stock market’s total capitalization. __ Business Week _ quoted in DyingRussia
Putin blew a golden opportunity to diversify his economy, and make conditions better for young Russian men and women to start families. As a result of Putin’s failure, Russia’s brain drain, womb drain, and capital flight continue — and threaten to grow out of control, should oil & gas prices drop for an extended time period.
… as in Soviet times, there is no political accountability for the Kremlin. Russians have allowed Putin to seize total control of TV news, so many Russians simply don’t understand the true extent of Putin’s failures. And even if they did, Putin freely liquidates critics and opposition leaders. This means Putin has no more to fear from failure than did the Poliburo, and only national collapse can undermine his rule. _Dying Russia
The public health system and health care system in Russia are such that Russia’s epidemics of HIV, TB, Alcoholism, Tobacco abuse, and manifestations of national malaise such as suicide, are only likely to get worse.
High rates of abortion combined with high male death rates are blamed for most of the ongoing decline of ethnic Russians. Immigration of non-Russians helps to keep overall population and overall birth rates from collapsing. There is an ongoing problem of large numbers of newborns being abandoned by mothers to a horrific orphanage system, where abuse is widespread.
Large numbers of Russian babies are never born. Of those that are born, large numbers are abandoned to orphanages and other places even worse — because the mother cannot care for them.
Comparing Russia and the US, we see that heart disease is the most common cause of death in both countries.
|Cause Of Death||Rank||Deaths||Rank||Deaths||Summary|
|Coronary Heart Disease||1||1,467,827||1||445,864||+ 1,021,963|
|Other Injuries||3||166,943||21||25,827||+ 141,116|
|Lung Cancers||4||114,151||3||165,402||– 51,251|
|Liver Disease||7||96,493||19||30,027||+ 66,466|
|Stomach Cancer||8||89,353||31||13,230||+ 76,123|
|Colon-Rectum Cancers||9||89,197||7||62,592||+ 26,605|
|Population = USA||Total||
In statistical terms, Russia suffers from a large number of “excess deaths” compared to the US — 2,356,309, in adjusted population terms.
Russia’s situation is precarious on many levels.
Will Russian leaders scale back their ambitions, become more risk averse, and more readily cooperate with the international community to compensate for Russia’s decreasing human potential? Or will they decide that drastic measures such as preventive wars and a nuclear weapons buildup are needed to compensate for their lost “mass mobilization” potential against foreign threats? Unfortunately, demographic analysis alone cannot answer this question.
… The Soviet Union was the third most populous country in the world at the time of its death in 1990, ahead of the United States. Russia’s current population places it in eighth place in terms of national population size, and Russia appears to be falling further over time. _Russian Demographics
Never trust the press releases of a national dictator who controls all the media. One may express the best of intentions, but when one’s actions are counter-productive to the stated goal, words are worse than excrement. At least shite is useful as fertiliser.
While projections into the future of Russia are very difficult, it’s estimated that Russia will fall from the 9th most populous country to 17th by 2050. Russian Prime Minister Vladmir Putin has announced that he plans to boost Russia’s dwindling population by encouraging immigration and higher birth rates, but estimates show that Russia’s population will drop from 2013’s 143 million to only 107 million by 2050. _Russia Population 2014
History tells us that it is possible for entire tribes and ethnicities to disappear, if forces of demographic collapse proceed to the point of no return.
This is what seems to be happening in Japan, and a few other relatively advanced nations in East Asia and Europe. Some populations seem to have disappeared from time for no apparent reason.
In the case of Russia, it would seem that excess mortality in males (alcohol, suicide, violence, etc) combined with a large-scale anti-natalism among young Russian women, largely accounts for Russia’s demographic meltdown. The ongoing brain drain and womb drain out-migrations do not help, either.
This is useful knowledge to keep in mind in the light of Tsar Vlad’s belligerent and potentially apocalyptic campaign to reassemble a grand new Russian empire.
Our best assessment is that without alcohol, Russian mortality would still be higher than in western Europe, but much lower than it is currently in Russia. But it is unlikely that Russians could tolerate their current circumstances without abundant quantities of vodka tonic.
Update 1 Jan 2015: One of the likely side effects of Russia’s drastic cuts in public health and health care spending is a decreased availability of medical abortions to young women. This will likely lead to many more back-alley abortions, many more abandoned babies, and many more street children who will fall into very bad habits of drugs, alcohol, and crime. These unfortunate newcomers will be counted in Russia’s vital statistics, and celebrated as a victory for the Kremlin. They will also likely accelerate the ongoing decline and fall of mother Russia.