Not Enough of Russia Left for a Dog to Gnaw On

The border, all 2,738 miles of it, is the legacy of the Convention of Peking of 1860 and other unequal pacts between a strong, expanding Russia and a weakened China after the Second Opium War. (Other European powers similarly encroached upon China, but from the south. Hence the former British foothold in Hong Kong, for example.)

The 1.35 billion Chinese people south of the border outnumber Russia’s 144 million almost 10 to 1. The discrepancy is even starker for Siberia on its own, home to barely 38 million people, and especially the border area, where only 6 million Russians face over 90 million Chinese. With intermarriage, trade and investment across that border, Siberians have realized that, for better or for worse, Beijing is a lot closer than Moscow.

The vast expanses of Siberia would provide not just room for China’s huddled masses, now squeezed into the coastal half of their country by the mountains and deserts of western China. The land is already providing China, “the factory of the world,” with much of its raw materials, especially oil, gas and timber. Increasingly, Chinese-owned factories in Siberia churn out finished goods, as if the region already were a part of the Middle Kingdom’s economy. __ China Will Reclaim Siberia

Will Russia Fade Quickly ... Or Slowly?

Will Russia Fade Quickly … Or Slowly?

Things are different between Russia and China now. An ever-weakening Russia has been losing control of Siberia for decades now, to an ever-strengthening China. With Putin on the warpath in Europe, Siberia is taking a low priority in Moscow. China is happy to carry the load of control and development of Siberian resources.

It is significant that the Chinese authorities are already setting up special organs on their own territory to manage the zones of assimilation in Russia. “The Heilongjiang Administration has formed a special leadership group responsible for resolving issues that arise in the process of constructing and developing foreign industrial and agricultural zones,” the Chinese state agency reports (Heilongjiang is a border province neighboring on Russia with a population of more than 38 million and its administrative centre in Harbin). Thus, the process of assimilating Russia’s Far East is being managed and controlled not so much from Moscow or Khabarovsk as from Harbin – more exactly, from the “special leadership group” set up by Chinese officials in the Heilongjiang Province Administration. The management of Chinese zones on Russian territory from the PRC is perfectly justified – __ Conquest vs. Buyout

[caption id="attachment_2522" align="aligncenter" width="600"]China:  A Phased Takeover of Siberia China: A Phased Takeover of Siberia

Under Putin, Russia is becoming mired in a number of violent conflicts across its borders with Eastern Europe. As a result of Putin’s misplaced aggressions plus relatively low prices of Russia’s fiscal life’s blood — oil & gas (gas prices are tied to oil prices) — Russia’s ability to control and develop Siberian resources is beginning to lapse.

The Russian economy is suffering — with inflation approaching 20% according to some data from Russian retailers — and Russians are beginning to express uneasiness over Putin’s willingness to sacrifice Russia and Russians to prop up his own prestige and sense of manliness.

A war with Ukraine, that’s the most ridiculous, the most idiotic thing that Putin could have come up with,” Smagurov said. “We have put ourselves in such a position that we’re against everybody — against Europe, against ourselves, against the United States, against normal life.” __

But that is the way things are in Putin’s Russia.

Foreign capital is shunning Russia, and Russian capital is fleeing the country. Russia’s banks are already reporting large losses due to Putin’s Ukrainian adventure, and the future seems likely to pile larger losses upon larger losses. In view of Russia’s continuing violent assaults against Ukraine, the EU is preparing yet more economic sanctions.

No one believes Russia anymore

As Russia loses prestige and economic ground in Europe, it is in danger of losing control of the source of most of its wealth — Siberia. The former world superpower is falling — in slow motion collapse — to fit into Moscow, St. Petersburg, and surrounding lands.

End Game -- NovoChina

End Game — NovoChina

Russia has made so many enemies under Putin, and under the USSR, that many factions will be standing in line to grab a piece of Russia when the nation’s government next collapses. Whether there will be anything left that could be called “Russia” is not a certainty.

IBT: Do you expect Russia’s population to keep declining?

LIOTTA: Yes. We should expect to see between a quarter and as much as a third of Russia’s current population simply vanish in the next 35 years — a loss of more than 30 million people….

There is another problem Russia has as well. Its population is aging. Russians age 65 or older will comprise 20 percent of the population a decade from now.

IBT: Are life expectancy rates in Russia much lower than in Western Europe?

LIOTTA: Yes, by about a decade. In very rough terms, since life expectancies vary widely by states, life expectancies for western Europe are 77 years, for Russia they 67 years.

Russia is literally vanishing in eastern Siberia, making the region quite tempting for China. Too few people without enough immigrants for replacement labor could seriously affect Russia’s future power. __ Neverending Collapse

Can the US CDC save Russia from itself?

The unstoppable collapse

Russian Population Pyramid 2013

Russian Population Pyramid 2013

A shortage of working age / military age / breeding age Russian males rushes into the breech that is currently filled by an older generation of males busy in the act of self-destruction.

Putin let slip the dogs of war … whatever comes next is on him

Power grab for private oil company by close Putin friend reveals corrupt nature of Putin regime

Russia’s past or Russia’s future?

Who’s that in the corner smoking a cigar and playing the Neville Chamberlain card? Why it’s President Obama!

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8 Responses to Not Enough of Russia Left for a Dog to Gnaw On

  1. bob sykes says:

    Every white population is undergoing demographic collapse, too. Russia is just ahead of us on this. Actually, I believe some western European white populations are crashing more rapidly than Russia’s.

    Many Middle Eastern populations are also declining or are about to. The Iranians are in actual decline, and I think the Turks are, too. The Korean and Japanese populations are also collapsing. Most importantly for your scenario, the Chinese population is now at its peak and will soon begin to decline.

    However, Russia has more nukes than we do and a wider variety, especially tactical nukes that we no longer have.. Unless the Russian nukes magically disappear, Siberia will not become Chinese. More likely is a deeper Russo-Chinese alliance. I would not be surprised to see Chinese troops reinforcing their Russian allies in Europe. Of course, China might well achieve de facto control of Siberia, and Russia might tolerate it for the value of the alliance in Europe.

    Despite the recent horror story of an exploding world population, the correct UN projection, which the world has been following for 30 plus years, is the low projection. This predicts a peak world population of 8 to 8.5 billion in 2030 and a slow decline thereafter. The real question is what happens to the world’s economy with declining numbers of people, especially rich people.

    • alfin2101 says:

      I believe it was Russia that invaded Ukraine, not the other way around. Russia is the bull in the China shop, stirring up more violence and bloodshed, more premature death in European populations. And Russia has barely begun making its violent inroads against Europe, according to Putin and his spokespersons. How is that helping the demographic situation in Europe?

      Russia’s ongoing meddling in Syria, Iran, and the rest of the middle east is likewise reaping a harvest of dead, inadvertently pulling the hapless and incompetent Obama into the fray. Putin is doing all of this to try to raise oil & gas prices, but so far to no avail.

      Putin to China: “Half my kingdom for a rich and powerful friend to assist my genocide and ethnic cleansing of Eastern Europe!”

      Whether China will answer the call, or will play Putin on for a stupid chump, remains to be seen. China has many ties to Ukraine as well. Ukraine is the natural leader of the steppe, not frigid and barbaric Moscow.

  2. Abelard Lindsey says:

    Russian TFR has recovered from a low of 1.2 to 1.7 today. They seem to be coming out of their fertility crisis.

    • alfin2101 says:

      Abelard: See the comment below by NekasM. The rapid influx of Central Asians combined with the more prolific reproduction rates of the newcomers, has allowed putative Russian fertility rates to seem to recover slightly. We will need to wait to see what fertility rates for Chinese nationals living inside Siberia turn out to be. I suspect the “one-child policy” will not apply to them.

  3. NekasM says:

    23 September, 2014 at 16:42-
    Only thanks to immigrants from Caucasus,Central Asia and other parts of the World!
    When have you last been in rasija and in they kindergartens and maternity hospitals….!
    P.S. In many large west Euro city’s birth rate have recovered also, so do in many south USoA states 🙂

    • alfin2101 says:

      Yes, very true. Always check specific rates for immigrants and other subpopulations before making claims about indigenous fertility rates.

    • Abelard Lindsey says:

      I don’t doubt you in the least (LOL)!

      I thought the claims made by Putin and other Russia boosters that the fertility crisis was resolving itself were a little dubious.

      • alfin2101 says:

        Well, you got me there. Got me there good. 😉

        I failed to address the question of how Siberia could be losing its Russian population when so many Central Asians are moving into the country. Most of the newcomers are locating in Russia’s cities, rather than out in the countryside. Likewise, ethnic Russians inside Siberia are moving westward toward the cities, out of Siberia — or they are dying off.

        So Russia’s population is increasingly concentrating West of the Urals, in the general area within and around the two largest cities — Moscow and St. Petersburg.

        But the makeup of that population is shifting away from ethnic Russian and orthodox, toward Central Asian and muslim. If you look at a recent population pyramid of Russia, you will see that the country’s population will soon be hit with another crisis as working age males retire and die off, with very few younger males to replace them.

        That is part of the dynamics of population change which a simple TFR cannot reveal.

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