Global slum populations are expected to double, from 1 billion up to 2 billion, over the next 15 years. (Source)
By 2030, nearly 60 percent of the humans on this planet will live in a city, and within 100 miles of a coast. Just about all the world’s population growth, over 2.5 billion souls, will be concentrated in the developing world. We need to recognize both the potential for prosperity built into future trends like urbanization, and recognize the dark side in shortfalls in government, the rise of tech-savvy gangs, and fetid slums. __ Small Wars Journal
Slums are the perfect breeding ground for violence, hunger, and infectious diseases. Human populations in the third world are still growing — particularly in sub Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia. The level of technological expertise in these impoverished areas is typically low, since average human IQ correlates closely with levels of affluence.
Often, water supply to individual households is unavailable. In some cases, public water pipes may be provided, but often these pipes become laden with excrement and refuse.This fetid water is what people use to drink and bathe in.
Similar arrangements may be made for electricity, drainage, and toilet facilities. There is very little dependence on public authorities. As a result, these areas become a breeding ground for germs and disease. Inhabitants live in squalor. Kibera Slum in Nairobi, Africa, is one example of a slum that operates without any kind of public garbage disposal. Inhabitants literally live on top of their trash. __ http://www.myseveralworlds.com/2009/04/05/slums-around-the-world/
In third world slums, humans live in close proximity with disease reservoirs, providing neighborhood-sized experimental laboratories for infectious diseases of all types to mutate and transform themselves rapidly.
Worldwide mortality due to infectious diseases Rank Cause of death Deaths 2002
1993 Rank N/A All infectious diseases 14.7 25.9% 16.4 32.2% 1 Lower respiratory infections 3.9 6.9% 4.1 1 2 HIV/AIDS 2.8 4.9% 0.7 7 3 Diarrheal diseases 1.8 3.2% 3.0 2 4 Tuberculosis (TB) 1.6 2.7% 2.7 3 5 Malaria 1.3 2.2% 2.0 4 6 Measles 0.6 1.1% 1.1 5 7 Pertussis 0.29 0.5% 0.36 7 8 Tetanus 0.21 0.4% 0.15 12 9 Meningitis 0.17 0.3% 0.25 8 10 Syphilis 0.16 0.3% 0.19 11 11 Hepatitis B 0.10 0.2% 0.93 6 12-17 Tropical diseases (6) 0.13 0.2% 0.53 9, 10, 16-18 Note: Other causes of death include maternal and perinatal conditions (5.2%), nutritional deficiencies (0.9%),
noncommunicable conditions (58.8%), and injuries (9.1%).
Westerners pay attention to sensational epidemics such as Ebola and pandemics such as HIV/AIDS. But many diseases such as cholera can kill millions every year and be ignored. As the slums grow, the death tolls from plagues, starvation, and violence will grow alongside.
Some prognosticators expect world slum populations to double over the next 35 years, but that is a very optimistic estimate:
By 2050, the world’s urban population will swell to 6.25 billion, with 5.1 billion people living in cities in the developing world. Of these, as many as 2 billion people will live in slums. ___ http://www.citylab.com/work/2014/01/amazing-endurance-slums/8120/
If 5.1 billion people will be living in third world cities by 2050, expect well over half of them to be living in slums — although it may not be politically correct to call them that.
Whether third world slum populations explode rapidly or at a more moderate pace, depends upon the level of monetary and humanitarian aide — as well as other investments — that the advanced world chooses to make in the third world. The good intentions of more affluent populations may help accelerate the buildup of hellish urban areas in the impoverished world.
No good deed goes unpunished.
The blowback from the third world in the form of dysfunctional immigrants, disease, violence, terror attacks, and the acceleration of dysgenic decline and entitlement debt, will be severe.
Slum populations inside the great cities of Europe and the Anglosphere will grow larger, more violent, and more difficult to govern. Home-grown terror will increase from New York to Paris to Berlin to Toronto. Slum populations will also provide a firm foothold for emerging infectious diseases, fresh from the third world.
By financing and otherwise enabling the growth of third world populations beyond their ability to support themselves, affluent nations are creating the conditions that will lead to their own rapid decline over the next decades.
As the first world is transformed to more closely resemble the intermediate and third worlds, formerly affluent populations will experience hell on Earth more and more fully.
Can advancing technology stop the twin destructors of debt and demographic decline? Only if they enable a radical restructuring of national and international politics and power structures. We are looking for more resilience from new technologies, and the facilitating of greater self-sufficiency among competent and intelligent populations.
HFTB. PFTW. It is never too late to have a Dangerous and Resilient Childhood.
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