Murder Out There

Worldwide Homicide Rates http://chartsbin.com/view/1454

Worldwide Homicide Rates
http://chartsbin.com/view/1454


Out of Wikipedia’s list of 50 world cities with the highest murder rates, the US provides 4: Detroit, New Orleans, Baltimore, and St. Louis.

Rank Municipality Country Homicides
(2013)
Population
(2013)
Homicides
per 100,000
24 Detroit  United States 332 706,585 46.99
26 New Orleans  United States 155 343,829 45.08
36 Baltimore  United States 234 619,493 37.77
45 St. Louis  United States 109 319,294 34.14

Overall murder rates in the US are between 4 and 5 per 100,000. Notice how much higher murder rates are in particular US cities, compared to overall US murder rates. The contrast is even higher when one zooms in on particular suburbs and communities within an urban area.

Detroit is populated by 82.7% African Americans. Baltimore boasts 63.7 % African American. New Orleans has 60.2% African American. And St. Louis claims 49.2% African Americans in its population. __ Wikipedia

It might be an interesting exercise to compare the list of top 100 most dangerous cities in the US with a list of US cities with large African American populations. More: 25 most dangerous US neighborhoods — young and black.

Ron Unz looked at correlation coefficients of murder rates in US cities correlated with the black population, white population, “hispanic” population, and asian population. Below is his graphic representation for US cities above 500,000 population.


The correlations are essentially identical for cities of 250k and greater.

Keep in mind that a clearer correlation between violent crime and race can be discovered as one narrows the search to particular communities within the larger cities. For example, in East St. Louis, murder rates are at 63 per 100,000, reflecting the higher proportion of African American residents in East St. Louis (98% black) as opposed to St. Louis (50% black), across the river (St. Louis murder rate 34 per 100,000).

Comparing national murder rates, one can find many countries — including Russia and several African countries — which rank very high on the international murder rankings. But for some reason, most of their cities fail to rank in Wikipedia’s top 50 cities by murder rate. Why is that?

For one thing, when homicide is concentrated within particular cities and their surroundings, the violence is somewhat contained — and the rates are diluted by the far lower crime numbers outside of those cities, where most people live.

In addition, for many countries in the third world, the keeping of careful crime statistics is not a high concern by government officials, for various reasons: Much crime in those countries is committed by thugs in the employ of government factions, and is ignored in official statistics. Other nations simply do not bother to fund agencies to compile statistics in any meaningful way. In those cases, international estimates are likely to understate the real figures.

Other countries may have uniformly high crime rates, both inside and outside the cities. In those cases, overall violent crime and murder may be high without any one city ranking high in global rankings.

In yet other countries, a concerted effort may be made to “launder statistics” which may reflect badly on quality of life within particular countries. Very few nations are anxious to air their dirty laundry, besides the US perhaps.

Try to avoid cities and neighborhoods with high crime rates. If you are planning a trip near Detroit, Miami, Baltimore, New Orleans, or other high-crime US city, be sure to do your research in advance. Stay on main thoroughfares, avoiding “high crime” areas. Do not trust your GPS in and near such locations.

One can imagine how much safer and more productive the US would be without these high crime centres. But Americans — and the rest of the world — must play the hand they are dealt. Europe is being deluged with similar high-crime populations as have plagued the US for generations now. London has already enjoyed the benefits of multiculturalism, and many other cities across Europe and the Anglosphere are likely to attain a closer appreciation for the differences that multicultural immigration can bring.

Location is key.

Hope for the best. Plan for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.


Articles about Blacks and Crime on the original Al Fin blog.

The genetics of violence (from Unsilenced Science blog)

Stuff Black People Don’t Like

PDF “Natural Born Killers” PDF research study on the genetic origins of extreme violence

Publications list for JC Barnes, a prolific criminology researcher looking into the genetics and evolution of violence as well as the biosocial correlates of violence

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10 Responses to Murder Out There

  1. jabowery says:

    What I find fascinating is the surge in white murder rate circa ’93 thru ’95 concomitant with the lowering of Hispanic murder rate. Assuming this isn’t merely a (for some mysterious reason) _gradual_ change in reporting status of some “Hispanics” to “Hispanic whites” during those years) there are a couple of things that could be related: 1) The Reagan amnesty of 1986’s supposed imposition of border security was finally seen to be fraud — so Hispanics basically had land to conquer in the US rather than in-fighting, resulting in a sense of loss of territory among whites and resulting infighting over the decreasing scraps of what was once their territory, 2) Boomer females were entering menopause in very large numbers, resulting in a declining fertile white female to fertile white male ratio — with the attendant in-fighting. Perhaps both contributed. (Of course, these are ecological correlations so one must take into account a potential “ecological fallacy” in any interpretations.)

    • alfin2101 says:

      Unz is graphing correlation coefficients rather than actual rates in his graphs. This makes a significant difference when attempting to interpret the curves.

      Unz’ graphs demonstrate a strong relationship between the presence of blacks in a community and levels of crime. Such graphs should have been accompanied by graphs showing arrest rates, conviction rates, and incarceration rates, by race. Unfortunately, for reasons of political correctness, such data can be difficult to obtain.

  2. Craig says:

    no Chicago?

    • alfin2101 says:

      Particular regions and neighborhoods of Chicago are very violent: http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/2010/10/25-most-dangerous-neighborhoods-young.html

      Murder rate rankings change from year to year. Larger cities lilke Chicago have higher non-violent populations to balance against their violent populations, keeping rates lower than smaller cities or neighborhoods that contain higher concentrations of high crime multicultural populations (eg East St. Louis).

      It isn’t difficult to see and understand the problem. It is also easy to see that today’s media culture and political systems are unable to face the problem, much less solve it..

      For a parallel, non-governmental solution to succeed, the problem must be understood by a large enough number of competent, independent-thinking people who are willing to pursue moral action outside the boundaries of government.

      New disruptive technologies that empower individuals, families, and small cooperatives, should provide local communities with better ways to defend themselves against outside encroachments.

    • Gazza says:

      Chicago above Rio or Johannesburg?

  3. This is beyond shocking. From reading this blog, I would have been certain that the top cities would have been Russian. Yet nary a Russkie municipality is in the top 50.

    • alfin2101 says:

      Yes, well I am shocked that they allow gambling in this establishment, so neither of us is beyond a shock or two. 😉

      But seriously, I addressed that very question in the body of the article. High rates of murders in cities suggests a concentration and partial containment of violence within the city and the immediate surroundings. High rates of murders across an entire country — as in Russia — suggests that the problem is ubiquitous across the landscape.

      Genetic predisposition to violence — as in sub Saharan Africans — is one contributor to the problem, as we see in any city with appreciable black populations, including London. But other contributors include organised crime — such as we see in the drug gangs of Latin America and in Russia.

      When government itself funds roving gangs of hit men — as in Russia — the problem is amplified. Except that those homicide statistics never make it to the official listings.

      Can you imagine the murder rates of an East St. Louis that was transplanted inside Russia? Phenomenal.

  4. Gazza says:

    These lists aren’t very scientific I wouldn’t take them too seriously.

    Places like East London (South Africa) and Rio de Janeiro are missing yet a bunch of comfortably safer US cities make the list – because the author has apparently failed to notice that they’re municipalities that are part of a much larger city but happen to have the word “city” in their official municipal title. In fact, these US “cities” are based on hugely arbitrary political boundaries that don’t come close to corresponding with *their* recognisable built-up area.

    Detroit is actually a “city” of 5 or 6 million. New Orleans is around a million, St. Louis is above 2 million etc. The murder rates for Detroit, New Orleans, St. Louis and Baltimore are 10, 19, 7 and 9 per 100,000 respectively (or 5 with Washington combined with Balt. if you use that delimitation).

    • alfin2101 says:

      Certainly you have a point. On the other hand, when one looks at specific municipalities within a greater metropolitan area, one can sometimes discern specific elemental bases for criminal activity which are “watered down” by looking at a less stratified, more mixed population.

      When looking at municipalities and neighborhoods with high % populations of particular ethnic groups — and correlating these population breakdowns with crime statistics — one can generate hypotheses which can then be tested further. Political correctness is generally an obstacle to valid inference, but a political correctness revered by one generation often becomes a laughingstock for other generations.

      • Gazza says:

        There is also the problem that some central municipalities possibly have artificially inflated crime rates and possibly for murder as well because of moving populations which makes the metro (the CITY in the true sense of the word) the better comparison. I don’t think moving populations affect US cities though in terms of murder (as far as I can tell), I’ve seen a few cities in the developing world which have suspicious ‘city proper’ homicide rates which I suspect are ballooned by the suburban municipal pop.

        St. Louis especially but also Detroit to a lesser degree are unfairly penalized compared to Memphis in these “city” (municipality) comparisons because their “city” (municipality) comprises only a small section their metro (CITY) population. Look at Memphis’ city (municipality) pop. and it’s metro (CITY) pop. then compare that with St. Louis, Detroit, Washington etc. It’s rather obvious. The metro area (the actual CITY and exurbs) of Memphis has a higher murder rate than all of them.

        One municipal exurb of Rio had a murder rate of 85 per 100k in 2012. Presumably it’s illogical that this is inflated because it’s an outlying area, if anything it would be deflated because of a significant % of the municipal population migrating to the ‘City of Rio’ municipality for much of the time (Rio’s real city pop. is 12-13m.)

        So you see the problem with including US cities and not Rio in the study, and not Johannesburg, not East London etc. In all honesty, I think comparing cities (A METRO AREA/AGGLOMERATION def.) of a similar pop. density is the way to go.

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