The global economy never really recovered from the financial crash of 2007 – 2009. Artificial “stimulus” was applied to the economies of several nations, including the US and China. But the ground was not made fertile for a true “grass roots” recovery. Most of the activity has been within the froth floating at the top of agitated waters. But that is only a distraction from the underlying corruption and decay.
Demographics is one of the keys to understanding the turbulent trends
In 2007 the total population of 25-54 year olds and total employed within the 25-54 year olds peaked. The total US population of 25-54 year olds has fallen 1 million since, 25-54 year old employees have fallen nearly 4 million, while the 55+ cadre has ramped by almost 8 million.
The impact is likely even stronger in Japan, Europe, and other locals upon which the war was waged. The loss of life higher, the birth dearth higher, the subsequent baby boom larger…and the current adjustments even more difficult. __Chris Hamilton
The institutional infrastructures in Europe and the Anglosphere were built around “baby boom” assumptions. The burst of post-war economic activity and procreation was assumed to be a new, permanent feature of the economic landscape — a “new normal.”
But there is no such thing as a “normal” economy, just as there is no such thing as a “normal” climate. Both climate and economies are chaotic phenomenon, affected by multiple out-of-synch cyclic trends, and somewhat unpredictable black swans. Demographic change underlies much of the rest of what happens.
… the US 25-54 year old population and total jobs in this … group (which is responsible for driving the US economy) peaked in total population in ’07 and has fallen since…and jobs within this group also peaked but have fallen about 4x’s more than the groups population decline. The peak and fall of this group in the US and likewise globally, particularly in advanced economies, soon sent the markets into a tailspin. And the government has made up for the falling demand by taking on debt…lots of debt. This crisis (aka, the Baby Boom bust) was entirely predicted and foretold. But for some reason the subsequent birth dearth and it’s economic impacts in the US and globally are not being discussed and rather the Fed speaks of insufficient demand being overcome by simply offering more and cheaper debt??? … remember these same issues impacting the US are not just domestic but very global and feeding on one another in global lockstep. __Chris Hamilton
(see charts at link above)
It is no mystery why analysts disagree over where the price of oil is going next year. Most economic analysts fail to take demographic change into account. The few analysts who consider demographic change almost always draw the wrong conclusions.
If you look at global population growth, you will see that most of it is taking place in third world populations. And if one stratifies the populations of the developed nations and the BRICs, one sees that most of their procreation is taking place within low IQ native and immigrant populations. In other words, not only are the 25-54 year old populations falling, they are also becoming stupider.
A stupider population is more likely to elect leaders such as Barack Obama, Francois Hollande, and Robert Mugabe.
It is against this backdrop of demographic change and declines in global demand that Russia is entering a time of deepening recession, alarming inflation, a collapsing public health infrastructure, high murder and suicide rates, brain drain, capital flight, womb drain, a steady loss of freedoms, and a potentially fatal loss of belief in any endurable future.
Russia’s indebtedness is vastly understated by conventional methods, and the long-suffering nature of her people is overstated. These are not the Russians of yore who lived through the Tsars, the Bolsheviks, the Nazi invasion, the deprivations of the Soviet years, the collapse of the USSR, and the hardships of the 1990s. This is a new, hip generation of Russians, adapted to all the abundance that artificially high oil & gas prices entitled them to. They are not likely to take to Soviet-style impoverishment as well as their parents and grandparents. They are more likely to make a break for it, or turn to some of the more destructive diversions available to young Russians.
Even now, after all the oil shocks and cyclic crashes, Russia continues to make herself fatally dependent upon energy exports to support her destructive habits of empire. Putin’s plan — a vulture capitalist’s plan if ever there was — may not work out well in the end, for the average Russian, not in this age of demographic decline.
Europe and the Anglosphere have time for one last multi-decadal hurrah! if they can shake off the perverse and suicidal leftism that is cursing them into an early grave. A cautionary tale from US politics More incompetence
It is true that Russia has been funding dissident ethnic groups, activist groups, and enviro-extremist groups in the west — along with conducting a massive propaganda blitz via television and internet. But if the west had not destroyed its own foundations of sound philosophy within government, media, and education, it would not be such ripe pickings for the lunatic fringe.
China is slowing down. Things in China could deteriorate more deeply and quickly than most people can imagine.