Human Capital Fleeing Europe?

Europe is faced with a serious brain drain problem. Since the introduction of the euro, more qualified workers have left Europe than have newly arrived. In the pre-crisis years, the 15 countries that adopted the euro currency exhibited, on average, a net loss of around 120,000 postsecondary-educated workers each year. They were mainly attracted by the United States’ higher salaries, world-class universities, and efficient bureaucracy. In the years leading up to the Great Recession, from 2000 to 2008, Italy lost around 1.5 million professionals — many of them with very advanced skills. __ Foreign Affairs


Everyone knows about the new Russian brain drain triggered by fear over Russian invasions into east Ukraine and Crimea. The Russian brain drain goes hand in hand with a severe currency crisis and massive capital flight from Russia.

Not as many people are familiar with Europe’s brain drain problem. In fact, Europe is undergoing two simultaneous brain drains: The first involves the movement of highly talented people from one European country to another. This “within-Europe” brain drain is not considered as serious a problem as the other brain drain: Migration of talented Europeans to non-European countries.


Out-migration of European scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, and sports/entertainment celebrities has long been a sore point for European leaders. But a new out-migration of wealthy and talented Europeans threatens to deplete the continent’s human capital even further.

Russia is no longer Mother Russia without its violinists, poets, and novelists. Former Soviet scientists and engineers helped pioneer the high-tech wizardry originating not from Moscow, but Tel Aviv. The Jewish Shahs in Los Angeles are a reminder to Iran of a far more valuable weapon they once had, and then lost. Syrian Jews were thankfully spared the present mass murders in their former country, and along the way they invented the designer jean industry. Polish, Lithuanian, and Ukrainian Jews left a cavernous cultural hole behind where they once lived and then proceeded to invent the American songbook, film and fashion industries — not to mention stand-up comedy.

__ http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/good-luck-without-your-jews-europe/#ixzz3PHa7gd26

Jews have become like “canaries in a coal mine.” History teaches that it is a sign of serious decline when Jews are routinely persecuted and killed. Europe should have learned that lesson by now.

Fanatical muslims and neo-nazis represent a net negative to any country, and any population would be better off without them. Jews, on the other hand, tend to help build science, culture, advanced medical care, advanced engineering, and other net benefits.

But Europe is not only losing its Jews. It is also losing non-Jewish scientists, engineers, highly skilled medical clinicians and researchers, industrialists, and the kind of entrepreneurial minds that build multi-billion dollar enterprises. When one combines this loss of talent with the very low birth rates among ethnic Europeans, the future of Europe might seem bleak to some observers. Particularly if Europe does nothing to correct the underlying policies of immigration, taxation, energy, etc. that are leading to inexorable decline.

The flow of talent worldwide reflects shifting tides of opportunity and prosperity. These shifts have occurred for as long as human civilisations have existed. But in the modern age of rapid technological development and implementation, shifts in talent can lead to multi-decadal shifts in global dominance for particular nations or cultures. It is something to pay attention to, and to strive to understand.

Ultimately, Europeans need to acknowledge that only radical reforms can reverse the tide of the ongoing brain drain. It won’t be easy to lure the most talented Europeans back home, but the continent has no other choice. Otherwise, talented people — regardless of the passports they hold — will shy away from Europe, to the detriment of the continent’s present and future economy. __Edoardo Campanella

Original Al Fin blog “emigration” label

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Demographics, Europe, Russia and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

21 Responses to Human Capital Fleeing Europe?

  1. jabowery says:

    Getting rid of Jews has very damaging long-term consequences. Just look at Germany today.

    • alfin2101 says:

      Perhaps you mean that comment tongue in cheek, but it holds more truth than you may realise. 😉

      • KW says:

        What do you mean by that?

        • alfin2101 says:

          Jews started returning to Berlin West Germany almost as soon as the unconditional surrender went into effect and the Nazis lost power. Otherwise the recovery of West Germany would have likely taken a good deal longer.

          As to the new appeal of Berlin to young Israelis, it makes for interesting reading and observation. Thanks for the link.

          • jabowery says:

            If correlation doesn’t imply causation, what does lack of correlation imply? See, for example, the Wikipedia table of Jewish population percentage by country. If there is a substantial ecological correlation, it most certainly doesn’t jump out at you. By the way, this is in stark contrast to the United States where one of the strongest sum total coefficients of determination with all other demographic variables is the Jewish percent of Whites — and the correlations with Jews percapita are not very nice:

            Here are the correlates with Jews:

            99 with JewishPercentOfWhites
            94 with RussianPercapita1990
            87 with AIDSTotalPercapitaThru2001
            (log) 86 with log(FamiliesWithIncome150000ormorePercapitaIn1990)
            86 with sqrt(West_IndianPercapita1990)
            (log) 84 with log(FamiliesWithIncome125000to149999PercapitaIn1990)
            83 with HIVPositiveTestsPercapita2001
            83 with sqrt(ImmigrantsJamaicaPercapita1998)
            (sqrt) 83 with sqrt(ItalianPercentOfWhites)
            (log) 82 with -WhiteYearsMarried18To44In2000
            (log) 82 with log(FamiliesWithIncome100000to124999PercapitaIn1990)
            (log) 82 with log(FamiliesWithIncome75000to99999PercapitaIn1990)
            82 with sqrt(ImmigrantsDominicanRepublicPercapita1998)
            (log) 81 with log(FamiliesWithIncome60000to74999PercapitaIn1990)
            (sqrt) 81 with log(ItalianPercapita1990)
            (sqrt) 80 with sqrt(RomanianPercapita1990)
            (log) 80 with log(ImmigrantsNonWesternPercapita1998)
            (log) 80 with InnerCityPercapita1990
            (log) 80 with log(LithuanianPercapita1990)
            (log) 79 with log(ForeignBornPercapita1990)
            (log) 79 with log(PublicEducationTeacherSalaries2000)
            (log) 79 with log(ImmigrantsTotalPercapita1998)
            (sqrt) 78 with GSPServicesPerGSP1999
            (log) 78 with log(FamiliesWithIncome55000to59999PercapitaIn1990)
            (log) 78 with log(ForeignBornPercapita2000)
            (log) 77 with -FamiliesWithIncome12500to14999PercapitaIn1990
            (log) 77 with log(DoctorsPercapita1990)
            (sqrt) 77 with -log(SuburbanPercapita1990)
            (sqrt) 76 with GSPServicesPerGSP2000
            (log) 76 with -FamiliesWithIncome17500to19999PercapitaIn1990
            (log) 75 with -FamiliesWithIncome20000to22499PercapitaIn1990
            (log) 75 with log(ImmigrantsIndiaPercapita1998)
            (log) 75 with -FamiliesWithIncome15000to17499PercapitaIn1990
            (log) 75 with log(MedianFamilyIncome1990)
            (log) 74 with log(MothersAgeAtFirstLiveBirth2000)
            (sqrt) 74 with log(ImmigrantsChinaPercapita1998)
            (sqrt) 74 with log(GreekPercapita1990)
            (log) 73 with log(ArabPercapita1990)
            73 with AustrianPercapita1990
            (log) 73 with -FamiliesWithIncome22500to24999PercapitaIn1990
            (log) 72 with -FamiliesWithIncome10000to12499PercapitaIn1990
            (sqrt) 72 with sqrt(HousingPricesPercentChange1980To2004)
            (sqrt) 72 with log(UkrainianPercapita1990)
            (log) 72 with log(MothersAgeAtFirstLiveBirth1990)
            (log) 71 with -sqrt(VoteBushPercent2004)
            (sqrt) 71 with BirthsPerAbortion1998
            (sqrt) 71 with AbortionsPerFertileWoman1998
            (sqrt) 71 with sqrt(HousingPricesPercentChange5YearsPriorTo2004)
            (log) 71 with -FamiliesWithIncome25000to27499PercapitaIn1990
            70 with CostOfLivingHousing2000
            (log) 69 with log(MothersAgeAtFirstLiveBirth1980)
            (log) 69 with log(AbortionsPercapita1998)
            (sqrt) 69 with -log(RuralPercapita1990)
            (log) 68 with log(FamiliesWithIncome50000to54999PercapitaIn1990)
            (log) 68 with log(HungarianPercapita1990)
            (log) 68 with log(MothersAgeAtFirstLiveBirthIncrease1970to2000)
            (sqrt) 68 with sqrt(H1BWithJobsPercapita1997)
            (log) 67 with -FamiliesWithIncome27500to29999PercapitaIn1990
            (log) 67 with -log(FedExpendituresPerDollarOfTaxes2002)
            (log) 67 with -log(FedExpendituresPerDollarOfTaxesSansDC2002)
            (log) 66 with log(PolishPercapita1990)
            (log) 66 with log(Age25To44Percentage2000)
            (sqrt) 66 with MothersAgeAtFirstLiveBirth1970
            66 with CostOfLivingComposite2000
            (log) 66 with log(SATWICHEParticipationRate2001)
            (log) 65 with -FamiliesWithIncome5000to9999PercapitaIn1990
            (log) 65 with log(PublicEducationExpenditurePerStudent1998)
            (sqrt) 64 with -GSPIndustriesPerGSP1999
            (log) 64 with -log(ImparingWaterPollutantsSedimentationMilesPercapita2003)
            (sqrt) 64 with log(Subsaharan_AfricanPercapita1990)
            (log) 64 with RobberyPercapita2001
            (log) 63 with log(HateCrimeEstimatedPercapita1996)
            (sqrt) 62 with -GSPIndustriesPerGSP2000
            (sqrt) 61 with HousingPricesPercentChange12MonthsPriorTo2004
            (log) 60 with log(HateCrimeEstimatedPercapita1999)
            59 with PrisonerDeathsFemalePerInCustody1988
            (sqrt) 59 with CostOfLivingRank2000
            (sqrt) 58 with -FamiliesWithIncome30000to32499PercapitaIn1990
            (log) 57 with -log(FedExpendituresPerDollarOfTaxes1992)
            (log) 57 with -log(FedExpendituresPerDollarOfTaxesSansDC1992)
            (log) 56 with -log(Age18To24Percentage2000)
            (log) 56 with AlcoholConsumptionPercapita1986
            (log) 55 with log(Asian_or_Pacific_IslanderPercapita1990)
            (log) 55 with -SATIMeanVerbal1991
            (sqrt) 55 with -log(FamiliesWithIncome32500to34999PercapitaIn1990)
            (log) 55 with -log(IraqWarCasualtiesPercapita2005)

          • KW says:

            I’m not sure what you mean. Only about 10 to 15,000 Jews returned to West Germany after the war. By 1990, they only numbered about 26,000 in West Germany and the average age was quite old, as many young Jews had been leaving in the intervening years. West Germany’s population in 1990 was about 62 million.

          • alfin2101 says:

            And yet look what only one Albert Einstein was able to accomplish. One should not confuse the absolute number of a group with the impact that they have.

            This is true whether you are speaking of blacks, Jews, or Nazis.

          • KW says:

            I’m not sure how Albert Einstein and his accomplishments analogizes to postwar West Germany.

          • alfin2101 says:

            Here is a look at Jewish Nobel Laureates

            Albert Einstein was but one of many Jewish scientists, engineers, physicians, writers, musicians, and persons of many professions who made a significant positive impact on their nations of residence. It is rather like yeast in bread or beer, not much is required to achieve a good effect.

            One of the enduring themes of the Al Fin blogs is how important market dominant minorities and other high-achieving minorities are to the well-being of a nation. It is not a difficult point to grasp.

            If you yourself want to make any particular point, I would suggest you do so in straightforward terms rather than beating around the bush. This comment thread as already gone badly astray, and is coming close to requiring euthanasia.

          • KW says:

            In your original comment, you seemed to suggest that postwar West Germany had not succeeded economically.

            Einstein got his Nobel for work he did while living in Switzerland. I don’t think he regarded his work as being done for Switzerland. His work was published throughout the scientific community internationally. It wasn’t a Swiss enterprise.

          • alfin2101 says:

            To the contrary, I refer to modern Germany of today, with its suicidal energy and immigration policies, and anti-natalist welfare regime. Modern Germany is losing its industries and in danger of reverting to its Nazi past. The Israelis moving to Berlin may experience a re-living of history if they are not careful.

            Contrast a pre-war Germany full of high-achieving Jewish citizens working alongside high-achieving ethnic Germans, with a modern Germany blinded by lefty-green stupidity, oriented toward creating a static purgatory of decay as opposed to a dynamic future.

          • KW says:

            I’m not sure I follow. Are you saying that postwar West Germany and Germany today were and are worse off economically than prewar Germany? Prewar Germany had arguably the worst performing economy in the history of modern Western democracies.

            And what do you mean by Germany reverting to its Nazi past? I don’t see any indication of that.

          • alfin2101 says:

            Certainly post-WWII West Germany was worse off than pre-WWII Germany. It had just been demolished in a total war — bombed to hell. Thanks to US help, West Germany recovered (while E. Germany was plundered by the USSR).

            Germany experienced 2 economic recoveries between WWI and WWII. The first was between 1924 and 1929, financed by generous US loans. This recovery was curtailed by the global depression in 1929 and a US call for repayment of loans in 90 days. Germany could not repay the loans, and did not do so. Germany suffered the effects of the global depression including very high unemployment,, and subsequently suspended reparations and loan repayments.

            The Nazi default on long-term loans in 1933 set the stage for an “economic recovery” that allowed Hitler to fund a massively expensive build-up to WWII. The large-scale seizing of Jewish property and assets played a part in the short-lived pre-war “recovery.” Drunk with plunder, Hitler made a serious miscalculation as to Germany’s ability to sustain a global war after having killed and driven its Jews away.

            The Jews were, of course, an important part of Germany’s economy throughout the between-war years.

            According to Sir Arthur Bryant the British historian (Unfinished Victory (1940 pp. 136-144):

            ‘It was the Jews with their international affiliations and their hereditary flair for finance who were best able to seize such opportunities.. They did so with such effect that, even in November 1938, after five years of anti-Semitic legislation and persecution, they still owned, according to the Times correspondent in Berlin, something like a third of the real property in the Reich. Most of it came into their hands during the inflation..

            … Sarah Gordon (Hitler, Germans and the “Jewish Question”) essentially confirms what Bryant says. According to her, ‘Jews were never a large percentage of the total German population; at no time did they exceed 1% of the population during the years 1871-1933.’ But she adds ‘Jews were overrepresented in business, commerce, and public and private service.. They were especially visible in private banking in Berlin, which in 1923 had 150 private Jewish banks, as opposed to only 11 private non-Jewish banks.. They owned 41% of iron and scrap iron firms and 57% of other metal businesses.. Jews were very active in the stock market, particularly in Berlin, where in 1928 they comprised 80% of the leading members of the stock exchange. By 1933, when the Nazis began eliminating Jews from prominent positions, 85% of the brokers on the Berlin Stock exchange were dismissed because of their “race”.. At least a quarter of full professors and instructors (at German universities) had Jewish origins.. In 1905-6 Jewish students comprised 25% of the law and medical students.__ Source

            The Jews were an easy target for Hitler and the Nazis. But after the war devastated Germany, re-building was more difficult for the loss of many of Germany’s best men — including most of its Jews.

            Germany today is much worse off than it could be, or than it would have been without the massive loss of good genes — both the Jewish ones and the ethnic German ones. It is now in essence a stupid lefty-green anti-natalist nation in danger of precipitous decline if it persists in its energy, immigration, and welfare policies.

            This interplay of dynamic demography and political economics seems quite simple and clear to me, but of course not all people think the same.

            This topic thread has outlived its usefulness, no longer adding any benefit to the original post. Feel free to post comments elsewhere, so long as they stay fairly close to the topic at hand.

  2. A.B Prosper says:

    The side effect of globalism is the movement of human capital to wherever it can make a better living. One would think this would raise nations up to a more equal level but it doesn’t. It seems that happens is it drags everyone down to the lowest common denominator.

    As for a fix, well the best thing that can happen is an end to any form of trans-nationalism or multiculturalism. All of these philosophies and variants are toxic to the well being of regular folks,. The rootless people whose ideal society seems to be a gulag-shopping mall do fine but the vast majority of humanity, it causes misery. The elite of any society must be bounded and rooted, locked down or they’ll destroy everyone around them and the best boundaries, nationalism and identity are damaged by trans-nationalism and multiculturalism.

    As for the Jew issue, its a harbinger of nothing. Really they are leaving because their elite espoused policies that weakened the established culture but in the end created a new multi-cult that is far more dangerous to them and harder to control.

    Besides the Its pretty clear from centuries of experience, Europe doesn’t want them there and only someone pigheaded would keep fighting that tide, Better they come to the US, probably the most Philosemitic non Jewish nation on the planet or go to home to Israel. They’ll be better off and in the case of the US so will we.

    Also re: energy and taxes. All developed human societies will hit these bottlenecks sooner than later. There isn’t enough energy to make modernity sustainable long term . rationing and cutback are inevitable. You can’t make energy greatly cheaper in hopes of creating jobs for very long and you can’t cut taxes much farther either. Even easier conditions do nothing to spread wealth. To do that you have to control trade and incentive distribution otherwise the cuts will all flow to the top.

    Also the birth rate issue in Europe is related to automation. Simply until it becomes no longer cost effective to use machines, its not possible to keep enough people employed to replace the population.No decent, moderately intelligent person wants to raise children on the urban dole these days and with staggering unemployment and underemployment among young people of peak reproductive age , its simply not feasible to have many children.

    Its like that old Everclear lyric “They have never had the joy of a welfare Christmas” and anyone who has who isn’t dysgenic won’t subject his or her children to that.

    Worse, most societies have reached the maximum amount of wealth redistribution they can tolerate. In the US this is about 20% of GDP federally plus state, county and local. Its known as Hauser’s Law. Its much higher in Europe but even if all immigrants were repatriated its simply not possible to provide a lot of the population with an income they want to have children on or even can. Its a social carrying capacity bottleneck .

    Now in the past, religious pressure and lack of knowledge and opportunity conspired to keep birth rates up a bit but that’s gone and the Elite who were counting on people behaving irrationally as always but now that people are behaving rationally (well the non dysgenic ones anyway) the system starts to fail.

    Another problem is that a lot of trends combine and create a condition where much of the normal cueing system that facilitate reproduction isn’t working . Now in my option anyway, women can’t figure out which men are the best and so they linger, Essentially is a tyranny of choice issue

    The actual solution is politically not feasible, eliminate female suffrage ,limit formal education and employment among women and ban most birth control and abortion. Your birth rate will skyrocket . You will not however get the people you might want to run a modern society with that Taliban style approach . of course if Europe doesn’t get its act together they may get it anyway when Euro-Arabia happens or the Neo-Nazis take over,

    Alternately you can pay people not not have children and allow for a faster drop, very low immigration heck reverse immigration and no dole for unmarried persons with children till they population stabilizes at a level that can be supported . That however smacks of eugenics and more important we really don’t know what the floor is, the leadership of the UK or anywhere despite what the conspiracy people say isn’t enamored with a half to a 2/3 decline and ruralization at all.

    • alfin2101 says:

      I will only single out one aspect of your comment, your comment on energy.

      If you read the linked documents contained in this article: http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/2011/08/peak-oil-meet-heat-that-spells-your.html

      review the graphics in this article: http://alfin2300.blogspot.com/2012/03/gallery-of-world-hydrocarbon-endowment.html

      and skim the articles in this archive: http://alfin2300.blogspot.com/search/label/unconventional%20hydrocarbons

      you will begin to catch a glimpse of why peak oil apocalypse and the great global energy shortage myth is a club for dupes.

      The other parts of your comment contain variable amounts of reason, novel ideas, and “conventional wisdom.” Our everyday logic follows a form of “constraint propagation,” where we are bound by assumptions and the edifices of conclusions that follow logically from them. Our assumptions and premises generally require a more thorough examination and revision than most of us allow.

      On the topic of limited resources, I recommend a reading of Julian Simon’s Ultimate Resource II. Suspend your disbelief long enough to give it a good mental tumble. Simon neglects the issue of human biodiversity, and differences in potential among various breeding groups of humans. But nobody’s perfect.

      Even taking into account the ongoing dysgenic demographic changes taking place around the globe, humans can do a lot better than they are doing. The Dangerous Child Method of Education and Child-Raising is mainly about developing novel methods of using the human brain. The revolution promised by novel ways of thinking is greater than any other disruptive technology currently imagined.

      • A.B Prosper says:

        Thanks for the interesting links.

        I am fairly familiar with arguments against peak oil though a refresher in yours would not be amiss. I tend to be something of a devotee of the Archdruid Report and J.M. Greer’s theory of catabolic collapse however so that certainly colors my perceptions. I do not believe that our resource base especially taking culture into effects can support as many humans at the standards of living we are accustomed too or ion the case of rapidly developing places such as China, are desired. Well baring some lucky breakthroughs anyway. Let us hope I am wrong for all our sake. Also I’ll certainly check out Simon’s link. Thanks for that.

        To your last point, I agree 100% we all can do much better and as someone who was raised in a somewhat dangerous way, I strongly see the advantages. Now I don’t have children so its moot for me but in the event that I do, no doubt I will find the methods you espouse to be quite useful.

        Regardless , I certainly enjoy your blogs and hope my comments are of some value.

        • alfin2101 says:

          It is clear that you put a good deal of thought into your comments, and try to be fair even when you disagree. That is appreciated.

          I have been influenced by the ideas of Bucky Fuller and Julian Simon when it comes to human ingenuity and the use of natural resources. As I learned more about HBD (human biodiversity), it became clear that Malthusianism still applies to a particular subfraction of the human population. Whether there is anything “humane” that humans can do about the looming dysgenic idiocracy remains to be seen. I sincerely hope that there is.

    • jabowery says:

      Its astounding how innumerate people can get when it comes to Jewish accomplishment: They routinely forget there are such things as negative numbers! Quoting Kevin MacDonald’s response to John Derbyshire’s innumeracy: “The dispossession of Europeans is the ultimate defeat — an evolutionary event of catastrophic proportions for people of European descent. Whatever the contributions of Jewish “entrepreneurs, jurists, philanthropists, entertainers, publishers, and legions upon legions of scholars,” they could never make up for this cataclysmic loss and for the political instability and chronic ethnic tensions that have been unleashed by the Jewish intellectual and political movements discussed in The Culture of Critique.”

      • jabowery says:

        Greg Cochran describes one of these “trade-offs” thusly:

        “Generally, being some kind of asshole is not considered relevant in considering this kind of prize. That seems fair: it’s the work that matters, not your bad breath or devotion to the Lost Cause. But what is the right course when the same person who did the excellent work spend most of his career trying to corrupt that same field?”

        Indeed, if one were to trace back the origins of the attack on anyone who hypothesizes that heritability matters, (hence promoting dysgenics by default), one would find the giants on whose shoulders Lewontin stood to be just as Jewish. Why? Why would Jews, who have one of the highest degrees of heritable IQ advantage, go to such trouble to render thought about heritability of IQ a mortal sin for everyone else?

        To ask is to answer.

        • alfin2101 says:

          It is a logical error to blame an entire religion (Judaism) for the ideological blindness of one man (Lewontin) or any group of individuals.

          As for numeracy or innumeracy, one must always remember that numbers are only tools, easily used and easily misused. One must go one or more levels higher than the numbers themselves to understand how and when they should be used, and when a numerical result is significant or just so much smoke in one’s eyes.

Comments are closed.