Morgan Stanley has a short message for Russia: you’re doomed. _Doomed
But it really depends upon what is meant by the term “doomed.” The land will remain, and many of the people. But over time Russia’s wealth resources will be taken over more and more by outsiders. Putin is only speeding up the transition, despite what he may say or wish.
Russians have been grumbling for years about their country becoming a raw materials appendage of China. They have been seeking to induce their Chinese partners to buy more of Russia’s high-technology products and invest capital in Russian plants that manufacture such goods. They have also proposed collaborating on joint research and development projects to produce products for sale in third-party markets. Each year, Chinese officials agree to promote these goals, but the imbalanced nature of the Russia-China economic relationship has persisted and in several respects deepened. __ Russia Doomed
China is making out like a bandit in its business dealings with Russia, but most other investors might best consider cutting their losses.
Russia “looks cheap on paper but the problem is the economics don’t matter anymore,” he explained, adding “It’s really a sucker’s market.” __ A Change of Heart on Russia
Russia is spending its foreign reserves like there’s no tomorrow — and perhaps there will not be.
The sword of Damocles hanging over the economy is whether $385 billion in government reserves will run dry before oil prices rise. Rogoff, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, noted that governments habitually underestimate how fast they will go through their financial reserves when they race to bail out banks, save major state corporations and douse flames throughout an ailing economy.
Last year, for example, the Central Bank of Russia said it had shelled out more than $80 billion to shore up the value of the ruble on currency markets.
“If oil prices stay low, under $70 per barrel, they are going to run out of money sooner rather than later,” Rogoff said. __ Running Out of Time
Russia is already well below the “$385 billion” level in hard currency reserves. And the bottom is not nearly so far away as most foreign observers seem to think.
Russia is mired down in a costly Ukrainian quagmire that can only grow worse for the dying bear, which was already dying from the inside out.
US President Obama stands on the sidelines for now, reluctant to involve the US directly as an arms-supplier for Ukraine. But the US is far from the only player in the global arms supply trade. Sooner or later, Ukraine will get its advanced weapons and advanced training. More Russians will be returning to the motherland in body bags.
Although more American voices are being raised in favour of arming Ukraine with advanced weaponry, it bears repeating that direct American backing is not necessary for Ukraine to get the arms and training it needs. Indeed, it may be necessary for Ukraine to suffer a bit more Russian rape and brutality before the country wakes completely out of its deep Soviet-era slumber of corruption and helpless dependency on Russia.
In the meantime, most Europeans are growing more and more wary of Putin’s bloody machinations not so far to their East. A re-arming of Russia’s traditional foes is in the offing, just at a time that Russia can least afford a genuine confrontation.
Update: New, more reliable Russian News outlet opens in Riga. Working on a shoestring budget, Meduza is one of the new breed of Russian news outlets worked by ex-pat Russian journalists eager to counter the “shine on shite” Potemkin Kremlin propaganda.
Discover how weird a place Russia is becoming. Open your eyes to where Russia has been led by its mafia / KGB government of elite thugs.
242 days that should have Putin’s minions very worried
The Long War for Eastern Europe
Putin Stands to Lose More than Face
Russia without Siberia
Putin Brought it on Himself
Ukraine is Unifying Against Russia and Putin
The Winter of Russia’s Discontent