Peaceful overthrow of an established government is an art, not a science. If you want to bring about a kindly revolution, you must know the nation and its people intimately, and act accordingly.
When the government of Iceland was peacefully overthrown, very little was heard or said about it on the world stage — other than in the financial media. Political change in Iceland was achieved peacefully, and apparently with a stable result. More
The revolutions of 1989 were successful overall in throwing off the puppet regimes of an oppressive occupying power, thus making self-determination more possible. Those revolutions were a largely spontaneous response to dominant zeitgeist that was felt from Eastern Europe to Tiananmen Square. The Chinese revolution was put down harshly by the PLA, but most of the puppet governments in Eastern Europe finally submitted to popular will.
The events began in Poland in 1989, and continued in Hungary, East Germany, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Romania. One feature common to most of these developments was the extensive use of campaigns of civil resistance demonstrating popular opposition to the continuation of one-party rule and contributing to the pressure for change. Romania was the only Eastern Bloc country to overthrow its Communist regime violently. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 failed to stimulate major political changes in China. However, powerful images of courageous defiance during that protest helped to spark a precipitation of events in other parts of the globe. Among the famous anti-Communist revolutions was the fall of the Berlin Wall, which served as the symbolic gateway to German reunification in 1990.
The Soviet Union was dissolved by the end of 1991, resulting in 14 countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan) declaring their independence from the Soviet Union and the bulk of the country being succeeded by the Russian Federation. __ Revolutions of 1989
The 1989 European revolutions that succeeded in a non-violent manner, were successful because the underlying societies were ready to throw off the foreign (Soviet) yoke. A critical mass of citizens created a chain reaction of mass effect which told the puppet leaders that they had best get out of the way. The 2010 Icelandic regime change was a similar chain reaction “mass effect” phenomenon, combined with a leadership that was unwilling to use oppressive measures against the population.
The initially peaceful 1989 Tiananmen demonstration of about 1 million civilians, turned into a bloodbath because Chinese communist leaders — fearful for the future of the CCP — were willing to deploy up to 250,000 peasant soldiers from outside Beijing, who were unable to speak the same dialect as the demonstrators. It was the Chinese method of solving inconvenient problems, and the aftershocks of that massacre of civilians continue to haunt CCP leaders every year as the anniversary of Tiananmen rolls around.
Most mainstream approaches to nonviolent revolution are doomed to failure for multiple reasons. Bad timing is one of the most common causes of revolutionary failure. Even more common is the inability of revolutionary leaders to consider all of the factors that allow the regime to maintain itself, despite dysfunction, corruption, and incompetence.
When revolutionaries are blinded by ideological stupidity and constrained by the limitations of faulty and unworkable beliefs, chances for long-term success are slim.
The best nonviolent revolutions are the ones that are only seen in hindsight. These are typically triggered by technological or scientific breakthroughs
For most large nations today, a “mass effect peaceful revolution” would likely result in a worse — more corrupt and dysfunctional populist — regime than the country started with. This is particularly true of most European and Anglospheric countries, already drowning in the dysfunction of multicultural political correctness and suicidal immigration policies. As the dysgenic Idiocracy continues developing in such countries, sudden shocks or disruptions are more likely to result in a more dysfunctional and Idiocratic state of affairs after the shocks — which are not likely to be bloodless.
That is why the disruptive technologies arising from breakthroughs in science and engineering are so important to the future of Europe and the Anglosphere. The bright fractions of such populations must be empowered to easily protect themselves from the rising flood of dysgenic Idiocracy.
When contemplating the sort of non-violent disruptive technologies that might subtly bring down particular modern governments, a number of possibilities come to mind. Information technologies are an integral part of most of these disruptors, with advanced computing and networking being central to their development and implementation.
For example, the ability to move financial assets freely and in secret anywhere on the globe, is critical. Alternative currencies and methods of payment, such as digital currencies, would facilitate the secret movement of financial assets in preparation for more active phases of separation.
This Wikipedia list of emerging technologies highlights breakthroughs in energy, electronics, materials, agriculture, medicine, robotics, communications, transportation, and outer space — as well as military breakthroughs. Don’t forget 3-D printing and molecular manufacturing.
In terms of bloodless revolutions, the most important new disruptive technologies are those that would allow families, communities, and networked communities to survive and prosper independent of central governmental interference. “Conventional” communities able to convert themselves to self-contained communities — capable of supplying their own power, water, climate control, food, medicines, and other basic needs — would be better able to withstand an extended siege by government forces, particularly if they were able to maintain trade with other communities of similar standing.
Domed communities or arcologies of various kinds could be designed and built for a wide range of terrestrial and marine settings. Robustly resilient “dangerous communities” would need to be able to “hide in plain sight” as long as necessary, before rapidly converting to a more independent status.
Such communities would need to be located in promising locations and built around alternative sustainable critical infrastructures capable of being kickstarted on short notice.
- electricity generation, transmission and distribution;
- gas production, transport and distribution;
- oil and oil products production, transport and distribution;
- water supply (drinking water, waste water/sewage, stemming of surface water (e.g. dikes and sluices));
- agriculture, food production and distribution;
- heating (e.g. natural gas, fuel oil, district heating);
- public health (hospitals, ambulances);
- transportation systems (fuel supply, railway network, airports, harbours, inland shipping);
- financial services (banking, clearing);
- security services (police, military).
The list above provides an informative look at minimal infrastructure for communities that want to be able to bridge the coming Idiocracy. Throw in education, manufacturing, construction, and repair, and you will get closer to what is needed.
Any community — or community of networked communities — that hopes to drag the hopes of an abundant and expansive future across the gulf of the coming Idiocracy, had best learn to integrate powerful disruptive technologies with a separable infrastructure — including a separable power grid with ample fuel supply chains.
That is why new technologies in chemical synthesis, nano-assemblers, rapid prototyping, gene engineering and stem cells, advanced nuclear energy, etc. etc. are so important to an uncertain future. That is also why it is important for Europe and the Anglosphere to outlast Russia — as anyone who witnessed the vicious Soviet rape of Eastern Europe would understand.
China is a different matter, since it is mainly a conjured image of outside threat to the Middle Kingdom that allows the CCP to maintain China in a prolonged state of nationalistic furor. Should the developed world slip into dysgenic Idiocracy — as it must in the absence of sufficiently powerful disruptive technologies — China’s leaders are unlikely to be able to hold the empire together.
Picture the fictional world of Neal Stephenson’s The Diamond Age. Nation-states have collapsed and the city-state is the largest and most powerful unit of political jurisdiction. Disruptive technologies rule in the future wasteland, and one must stay on one’s toes. But not stand still, never stand still.
An interesting look at the role of robots in future wars — Robots, drones, and remotely controlled mechanisms may be one of the most important technologies for R & D communities to master, alongside digital currencies and networked trade.
Another kind of revolution in Russia
The rapidly aging Russian population is not only shrinking but is not fit for any major economic or military efforts. During the last decade it was discovered that some 60 percent of Russians are elderly, children, or disabled. Out of 20 million males of working age, one million are in prison, a million in the armed forces (including paramilitaries), five million are unemployed (or unemployable due to poor education, health, or attitude), four million are chronic alcoholics, and a million are drug addicts.
Revolution can come in many forms. Some revolutionaries vote with their feet. Some vote with their wombs. Some choose other forms of escape.