Can Poland Hold Russia Back Long Enough to Save Europe, Once Again?

Poland saved Western Europe multiple times. First, from the Mongols:

Fierce resistance by Polish and Hungarian armies held the Mongols off from western Europe long enough for the great Khan to die in 1241, necessitating an interruption to the Mongol invasion of Europe so that a new great Khan could be chosen. The Russians, of course, had already fallen, and remained under Mongol dominance for centuries.

Poland saved Western Europe from the Ottoman Turks in 1683:

From 1453 to 1683 the Ottoman Turks had progressively penetrated the Balkan peninsula and then central Europe, subjecting the inhabitants to Moslem rule. Sobieski and the Poles arrived at the very last moment when it was possible to defeat them before they took Vienna, and this victory was a turning-point in the history of Europe and the world. It began a steady movement by Christian Europeans to expel the Turks from the Balkans. __

Poland saved Europe from Russia in 1920:

In 1920 Europe was aflame and the appeal of the victorious revolutionary Lenin and Communism was immense throughout Europe, among the unemployed, the demobilized, and the intellectuals… Among the most momentous events of twentieth-century history is the defeat of the Communist Red Army in the Battle of Warsaw in the summer of 1920, “the miracle on the Vistula,” the subject of Adam Zamoyski’s excellent recent book Warsaw 1920: Lenin’s Failed Conquest of Europe.

Russia Threatens Eastern Europe

Poland should take its own defense seriously. [President Komorowski] recently announced two major arms purchases — Raytheon Patriot missiles from the United States, and 50 French Airbus Group helicopters — as part of Poland’s program to modernize its army.

Poland also needs to encourage Ukraine’s westward course, says Komorowski, who believes a stable, democratic, European Ukraine is vital to Poland’s security. “The Western world must understand that it will not be safe until Ukraine is safe,” he said in speech at the Ukrainian parliament in April, the first by a Polish president since 1997. Earlier this year, Komorowski stated that Poland was ready to sell weapons to Ukraine. __

Ukraine is in the middle of updating its own arms industry in order to face the Russian threat. As more Eastern European nations gear up to face violent Russian neo-imperialism — and join forces with NATO and the EU — Poland should find itself less alone than it has been up to this point.

Quietly, Poland has emerged as a bastion of stability in an increasingly volatile Europe. While political prognosticators loudly ponder the possible end of the United Kingdom and the European commitment of Greece and Hungary, very few bother to even consider the future of Poland so strong and certain does it seem.

It is a result that Europe should be proud of. Poland has worked hard to position itself alongside France and Germany as a pillar of the European Union. Sunday’s election moves them further along that path. And next door in beleaguered Ukraine, politicos will be taking notes. Poland has proven its doubters wrong and a new generation of Ukrainian leaders hopes that in another twenty years, they will have done the same. __

It is clear to the historically savvy that Germany and Russia were to blame for both WWI and WWII, and the catastrophic effect the two wars have had on European population numbers in the 20th century. It is amusing that many “white nationalists” favour the bloody Russian invasion of Ukraine, given Russia’s historical culpability for the large decline of European populations and influence.

Volatile Muslims make up between 15% and 20% of Russia’s population, and are procreating quickly, while ethnic Russian numbers are due to crash. At this stage, no one knows what Russia’s true population really is. Russia is getting older, with a changing population pyramid that reflects this rapid ageing.

Population numbers coming out of Russia can no longer be trusted. Births, deaths, abortions, orphanage populations — all of these numbers have shown unlikely and abrupt shifts that have “Kremlin propaganda” written all over them, to those who understand how to read demographic stats “between the lines.”

Over the past few years, population estimates for Russia have approached a fantasy land of conflicting trends and variation. In October 2010, the IMF indicated that Russia’s population for that year was less than 140.4 million and declining very fast (down more than 1.6 million from 2008). Within 11 months, the IMF projection had apparently revised the 2010 population up to 142.9 million (presumably to match the results of the dubious 2010 Russian census), which now represented a substantial increase – not decrease – from 2008. Both the 2010 and 2011 datasets showed the population had been declining since 2009, and the decline was expected to continue out to at least 2014.

When the IMF April 2014 dataset was released, Russia’s population was shown to be unchanged for the entire period from 2007 through 2014 – in sharp contrast to any prior dataset. Only six months later, a new population dataset was produced that now shows that the Russian population has been increasing over the past few years – and magically stayed exactly the same in 2013 and 2014 (an effective statistical impossibility).

As for the reliability of population projections for Russia, a 1997 Department of Commerce report predicted that Russia’s population would remain stable at 148 million from 1990 through 2000, then gradually increase to 150 million by 2010. This did not occur.

Knowing Russia’s real population would be useful, but it is exceedingly unlikely we know what is really going on in this nation. Consequently, all population-based economic indicators and their corresponding trends for Russia should be treated with extreme skepticism. ___ Russia’s Freaky Tweaky Population Numbers

Russia is ruled by a KGB Mafia junta, with the criminal Putin as mafia tsar. Everything that comes from the Kremlin is a lie — propaganda and disinformation, fit only for chumps and dupes.

In the meantime we see the continuing capital flight, brain drain, womb drain, appalling death rates, low birth rates among ethnic Russian women, higher birth rates among outsider populations, a rapid depopulation of Russians inside Siberian Russia, an astounding influx of ethnic Chinese mating with Russian women and taking over Russian business interests across Siberia. Russia’s future was already grim before Putin’s misadventures in eastern Europe. The country is being rapidly bled dry by Putin’s inner circle. How long before they turn on Putin himself, in order to loot the biggest looter?

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5 Responses to Can Poland Hold Russia Back Long Enough to Save Europe, Once Again?

  1. Jim says:

    I’m puzzled by the contrast between the title of you blog which suggests that Russia is on the verge of overruning Europe and the contents which suggest that Russia is on the verge of total collapse.

    • swampie says:

      I reckon it’s like North Korea, Jim. Nobody can deny that NK is a basket case, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t dangerous.

      • alfin2101 says:

        Yes. It is not a difficult paradox to resolve. Russia and friends of Russia such as North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Pakistan, etc. are all basket cases on many metrics, yet still belligerent bombasts toward neighbors and “superpowers” alike. Internal politics require warlike postures and actions by the tin god dictatorships.

        Western Europe is weak without backing from the US. Moscow would have been in control of all of Europe long ago without US power as a bulwark. Poland cannot match Russian legacy power dating to USSR days, but it is taking steps to perform a delaying action much longer than its delaying actions against Nazi Germany in the west and the USSR in the East in WWII. It is building alliances with Baltic nations and Ukraine to that end, and arming itself and helping to arm its neighbors with modern weaponry.

        In the article A Russian Crisis with No End, a Forbes author looks at Russia’s condition in detail, exposing a situation far more fraught with hazard than Russian propagandists and their “useful idiots” in the west are willing to reveal.

        Look at the conditions on the ground, rather than the propaganda from Russophiles and Kremlin trolls and their masters. Better yet, move to Russia and try to make a living and stay alive. Russia is propped up by oil & gas money and sales of various other natural resources. But long term trends point to global reductions in the use of most of Russia’s resources, except uranium as advanced technologies learn to do more with less.

        Go to Russia, young man, with open eyes.

  2. bob sykes says:

    Good grief!

    Your energy posts are always informative and welcome. Stick to those and your speculative futurism.

    But why this delusional seething hatred of all things Russian? There must be some personal history here. Russia is reacting to US aggression. It is the US that is pushing NATO armies into the Russian heartland. The US got away with it when Russia was prostrate and helpless, and the US could violate the promises made to Gorbachev not to expand NATO into the former Warsaw Pact countries.

    Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin (yes, Putin) and Medvedev all supported a common Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals, with some sort of Russian membership in both NATO and the EU. That hope was crushed by the US.

    Since the fall of the USSR, the US has been revealed to be a rogue, terrorist state whose sole purpose in the world seems to be domination and wanton vandalism. Just consider how many countries the US has trashed: Somalia, Sudan, Afghanistan (twice), Iraq (three times), Serbia/Kosovo, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and now Ukraine. I merely mention the century of terrorism in the Caribbean and Central America, where the US is universally despised.

    This reign of terror has driven Russia and many other countries outside Europe into the arms (and arms) of China. Last Saturday dozens of countries attended the VE celebrations in Moscow. Xi of China and the President of India both gave speeches praising the USSR’s contributions (the greater majority) to the defeat of Nazi Germany. Xi thanked the USSR for its contributions to the fight against Japan (much larger than the US contribution). Military units from 10 different countries marched in the VE parade, including units from China and India. This week Chinese and Russian naval units are holding exercises in the Mediterranean Sea.

    Except for Czechia, Slovakia, Greece and maybe one or two others, NATO/EU countries generally boycotted the ceremonies. Germany’s Merkel attended the wreathe-laying but boycotted the parade. She then petulantly blamed Putin for Stalin’s sins. The Western press reported her little rant, but ignored the major and historically important speeches by Xi and the President of India.

    You continually highlight Russia’s various problems, and they are many and severe. But you overlook Europe’s problems: (1) the demographic collapse of the native populations, each successive generation only ½ to ¾ the previous; abandonned rural villages (some in East Germany complete with wolves); (2) cultural collapse since 1914; (3) economic stagnation in every country; Great Depression in Greece and severe recession in others; near deflationary death spiral held off by massive (and illegal) ECB interventions; (4) deindustrialization due to insane environmentalism; approaching blackouts and brownout for cities, towns and industries; (5) colonization, with Ruling Class connivance, by masses of hostile Muslims from Africa and the Middle East, with subsequent no-go zones in major cities; violence against natives and Ruling Class protection of violent immigrant criminals; suppression of native civil rights, including free speech, freedom of press and religion, freedom of assembly; (6) tiny, toy militaries without logistical trains and war stocks; poorly trained, unmotivated servicemen; (7) a delusional, treasonous, corrupt, self-appointed Ruling Class with sham elections.

    And you invoke the medieval Lithuanian-Polish empire as a block against Russia. A Russia that might possibly be able to overrun eastern Ukraine, but could not do any damage west of Ukraine unless it lauched tactical nukes. You, yourself, have made that argument.

    The Poles, Lithuanians, Hungarians and Romanians, by the way, are looking to seize parts of western Ukraine to which they have historic (medieval) claims, should the junta lose control and Ukraine breakup.

    Look back again at Saturday. A world-historic event happened. If Russia can broker a rapproachment between India and China and form a Eurasian alliance, a new world hegemon will be created that will replace the US/NATO/EU. Even without the alliance, US/NATO/EU is checked.

  3. Jim says:

    Most of the borders in Eastern Europe are unstable not just the borders of Ukraine.

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