The population of far Eastern Siberia has collapsed to 6.3m from over 8 million twenty years ago, leaving ghost towns along the Trans-Siberian Railway. Russia has failed to make a go of its Eastern venture. With a national fertility rate of 1.4, chronic alcoholism, and a population expected to shrink by 30m to barely more than 110m by 2050 — according to UN demographers, not Mr Putin’s officials — the nation must inexorably recede towards its European bastion of Old Muscovy. The question is how fast, and how peacefully. __ China Holds the Cards
The vast expanses of Siberia would provide not just room for China’s huddled masses, now squeezed into the coastal half of their country by the mountains and deserts of western China. The land is already providing China, “the factory of the world,” with much of its raw materials, especially oil, gas and timber. Increasingly, Chinese-owned factories in Siberia churn out finished goods, as if the region already were a part of the Middle Kingdom’s economy.
One day, China might want the globe to match the reality. __ NYT
The process of population replacement in the Russian Far East is ongoing. Russians want out and Chinese want in. Russian women are preferentially marrying Chinese men, for reasons of economic well-being and domestic harmony. Chinese investors and businessmen are taking over Siberian industry, agriculture, commerce . . . and eventually political control.
A floating population of tens of thousands Chinese traders and seasonal workers continually moves back and forth across the border, one of the longest in the world. The immigrants settle not only in border areas but increasingly deeper into Russian territory, and some backlash is imminent. These developments raise several questions for Russia as to the migration’s impact, China’s long-term plans for Siberia, and potential Chinese dominance in the region. __ Harvard Review
Ethnic Russians are flowing out of Siberia, and ethnic Chinese are flowing in, taking over. It is a natural, and seemingly inexorable process.
By invitation, China is moving into Russia in a determined manner, taking control of Russian coal deposits, oil fields, and agricultural land in Siberia. Like earlier western investors, China will add significant value to fixed assets. But Putin will find it much more difficult to steal valuable Chinese developments, given the geopolitical and economic realities in which he has placed Russia. Russia is becoming China’s “bitch.”
Vladimir Korsun, a China specialist at the Moscow International Relations Institute MGIMO, said that . . . the Chinese “require a government security and special favours, special conditions, such as giving them some territory”. ___ http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33196396
Once the Dragon sinks its talons into the soft underbelly of Russia, there will be no letting go. Somehow, in the back of his mind, Putin understands the trap he is stepping into. He simply cannot help himself.
China is Russia’s existential threat. Russian doctrine makes clear that tactical nuclear weapons would be used to defeat a Chinese attack. The willingness to use nuclear weapons to stop a conventional attack is the key insight from Putin’s statement. __ http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/06/18/world-view-russias-saber-rattling-nuclear-threat-may-be-directed-at-china-not-europe/
Putin has forced Russia to hand China the keys to the kingdom. China will only help Russia in exchange for Russian land, Russian energy and mineral assets, Russian top-secret military assets, and general lebensraum.
Russia is encouraging companies to develop ventures with Chinese partners after the U.S. and Europe applied sanctions that have impeded access to international capital markets as the Ukraine conflict intensified. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow this month for a Victory Day parade in Red Square, as well as talks on business ties. __ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-25/deripaska-s-en-eyes-up-to-1-billion-of-investments-from-china
All of this “friendly cooperation” between the two duplicitous and power-hungry nations can easily remind one of the “Hitler-Stalin pact.” A marriage of convenience until the time is ripe to go for the jugular. Most Russians are not blind to the danger. But most Russians do not have much power over their own lives — except the decision to escape by vodka, suicide, or emigration.
Chinese investment in Russia, particularly in areas like commodity rich Siberia, could undermine loyalty to Moscow and shift it towards Beijing in the years ahead. __ http://seekingalpha.com/article/3226036-china-takes-advantage-of-a-preoccupied-world
This is already happening in the Russian Far East. Alienation from Moscow is a spreading phenomenon of constraint-propagation, sweeping across the Siberian landscape. Central Asian nations that once had close ties with Moscow are finding that China is offering them better deals.
During his meeting with the Chinese Vice Premier, Vladimir Putin expressed readiness to expand bilateral practical cooperation into wider areas and strengthen all-round cooperation with China in politics, trade, economy, culture, people-to-people exchanges, high technologies, infrastructure development and international affairs.
Putin did not have to invade Crimea or instigate a bloody hybrid war in Donbas. His choice now made, the people of Russia must pay the price.
[Putin] did not, after all, have to annex Crimea, get Russia involved in a prolonged conflict in eastern Ukraine or do anything else that has resulted in antagonizing the West — Russia’s most likely ally against an increasingly powerful China, which has been more slowly but more successfully reasserting itself as a great power than Russia.
… Just like previous Russian rulers, then, what Putin may actually be doing is setting Russia up for yet another catastrophic setback. __ http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/will-putin-lead-russia-to-glory-or-disaster-op-ed/524092.html
Russia is a land of perpetual catastrophe . . . just call it “bad luck.”
Putin’s poor choices have awakened a slumbering west, re-igniting a cold war and arms race that Russia cannot win.
Large-scale exercises recently were conducted by NATO in the Baltic Sea, landing troops only 100 miles from Kaliningrad, the home of the Russian Baltic fleet. NATO is parading armor through the Baltics and other Eastern European countries such as Poland. Western airpower is being built up in the region and now there is talk of permanently stationing NATO tanks and armored vehicles in former Soviet territory.
The United Kingdom’s defense minister, Michael Fallon, warned Russia that the exercises being held in the Baltic Sea were “not a game” and that Britain “would not be intimidated by Russia.” It seems that the Kremlin’s announcement of adding 40 more nuclear missiles to its inventory awaken the sleeping defense giant in the West.
Now concerns of a new arms race between the West and Russia are very real and front-and-center. With the weak and feckless Obama administration winding down, Moscow must realize a more hawkish president may be waiting in the American wings and could do wondrous things with a Republican Congress to revitalize the American economy and her defense spending.
China itself is still dependent upon western technology to build its military, space program, and economy — and very much needs western expertise in virtually every important phase of its industrial modernisation. China does not want to get into a conflict with the west for Russia’s sake.
Instead, China will continue to encourage Putin to weaken Russia up to the point that his regime falls and Russia erupts into internal chaos. Then China will move to take what it believes has belonged to China all along.
China will play a waiting game with Russia, hoping the country will eventually implode from a lethal combination of ethnic strife, government corruption, Islamic rebellion, fiscal mismanagement, and a commodities driven economy that lacks diversity. When a total collapse does occur and chaos ensues, China will move in a deliberate and swift fashion across its 4,000 km boarder with Russia to secure what it can of the Russian Far East and Siberia. — China and Manifest Destiny
Ever wonder where Putin’s absurd “cult of personality” originated? You can thank Vladislov (Goebbels) Surkov:
Surkov is the man most responsible for nurturing pro-Putin sentiment, which increasingly resembles a Stalin-like cult of personality. Surkov is Chechen by descent, infused – like Stalin – with the saber-rattling mindset of the Caucasus. Under his watch, the central focus of the Kremlin’s communication strategy has been to sustain the perception that the West wants to destroy Russia. Thus, the conflict in Ukraine has been framed as a renewed struggle against fascism – and in defense of Russia’s true, anti-Western identity. The supposed threat to Russia today was underscored for the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, with billboards springing up across Moscow to remind Russians of the sacrifices that victory required.
Like the Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels, Surkov is not overly concerned about facts. Emotions are at the core of the Kremlin’s message; indeed, they are the tie that binds Putin to his subjects. __ Nina Khrushcheva
For the chumps and dupes who take Surkov’s propaganda seriously, there is very little help to be had. As surely as a senile person, they have taken leave of the real world.
Russia in a tight spot with loss of Ukraine suppliers, and China can’t supply everything Russia needs
Meanwhile back in China, stomachs are turning
This is the country that Putin is handing Russia over to, as a “pet.” Wake up Russians.