Scientists at the University of Northumbria are predicting a period of extremely low solar activity, which last occurred during the frigid period known as the Maunder Minimum, 370 years ago.
A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645.
… Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.
“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.” __ Royal Astronomical Society
Zharkova and colleagues first observed three consecutive solar cycles in great detail. They then tested their solar model against the detailed observations. The results (97% accuracy) were intriguing enough to present the findings before the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, North Wales.
The earth is 15 years from a “mini ice-age” that will cause bitterly cold winters during which rivers such as the Thames freeze over, scientists have predicted.
Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the sun’s activity which they claim produces “unprecedentedly accurate predictions”.
They said fluid movements within the sun, which are thought to create 11-year cycles in the weather, will converge in such a way that temperatures will fall dramatically in the 2030s.
Solar activity will fall by 60 per cent as two waves of fluid “effectively cancel each other out”, according to Prof Valentina Zharkova __ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years.html
A 60 per cent fall in solar activity is nothing to sneeze at. A prudent person might set about gathering cold weather gear and perfecting his cold weather survival skills.
If correct — further study is naturally required — Zharkova’s prediction would mean a return to freezing temperatures last seen 370 years ago. During that period the River Thames froze to such an extent that regular “frost fairs” were held during the winter, with market stalls and ice skating a common sight on the river.
During the winter of 1683-84 the river was frozen solid for two months at a thickness of 28cm, according to historical records. Solid ice was also reported extending for miles off the coasts around England, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. __ http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-07/13/mini-ice-age-earth-sunspots
Another prediction of cooling via solar variation is more cautious, predicting cooling on the scale of a “Dalton Minimum,” rather than the colder and longer “Maunder Minimum.”
The UK Met Office is giving lip service to the possibility of a “mini-ice age” within the next 40 years, but they boldly predict that it will not cancel the global warming apocalypse. 😉
What is the bottom line? The exciting possibility that we are beginning to understand solar cycles to a deeper level, giving us more powerful tools for predicting global climate. Solar energy has always been in control of Earth’s climate. It is taking “science” entirely too long to understand how it all works.