China Russia NATO

Corrupt, authoritarian states like China and Russia can make impressive short-term military gains but they do not have the fiscal staying power to compete in the long game of history. __ Foundations Matter

Russia and China can make calamitous trouble for the rest of the world, before reality sinks in. The ultra-nationalist hard heads and corrupt elites who rule those nations will be forced to face the facts sooner or later.

… claims (or fears) of Chinese global domination are clearly overblown. The budget numbers just don’t add up.

… China’s population is rapidly aging, placing enormous pressure on health and pension systems. The proportion of the population that is aged 65 and over is expected to rise from 10 percent today to more than 20 percent in 2035. Elder care will increasingly strain Chinese government budgets in the decades to come. __ China

… ordinary Russians are nervous because they know their country is a declining power. Although Siberia is rich in energy resources, timber, water and minerals, the entire Russian population east of the Ural Mountains, traditionally the eastern boundary of Europe, is only 25 million.

Worse, just 7 million live in the most eastern part of Russia, while just across the border are more than 100 million Chinese suffering from a lack of clean water and an endless need for energy and other raw materials.

Even modern economic deals like the ones proposed raise fears that opening the door to China will lead to a flood of traders, merchants and investors that cannot be countered by native Russians. This is not an economic issue, but an ethnic one, driven by a sense of nationalism.

Even as Moscow seeks Chinese economic aid, it, too, fears the growth of China’s military strength.

The past half-decade has seen concerns that Russia’s long-term ability to defend Siberia is being hollowed out by depopulation and Chinese growth.

… Relations between Russia and China, even over economic ties that should benefit both, will be tense at the best of times. If China’s economy weakens, Beijing may seek more access to Siberia than Moscow is willing to give. ___ China vs. Russia

Putin’s Russia becoming another North Korea

Russia’s navy and airforces are losing potency.

The “Russian Empire” is spread too thinly and is likely to disintegrate.

Meanwhile in Europe, national leaders are in denial over the inevitable changes coming to Eurasia. Europeans have grown soft and weak, and without a toughening up and a change in leadership they may be easy prey to the next horde sweeping out of Africa and Eurasia.

Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine has had two positive effects.

The first is that NATO has returned its attention to Europe after focusing for so long on the faraway war in Afghanistan. Back home, the organization has established six command centers in Eastern Europe with the aim of supporting 5,000 troops and boosting the defenses of what has been a neglected area of the alliance.

The second consequence is that the war in eastern Ukraine is making all NATO members finally confront their decline in defense spending-even though there is little political will in many finance ministries to increase defense budgets.

… “If a country such as Georgia joins NATO, we have to be ready to defend it,” an Eastern European diplomat said. “Would we be willing to take on Russia?”

Added to that is Russian intimidation of NATO, as Russia’s permanent representative to NATO, Alexander Grushko, made clear. “Any political game concerning NATO expansion into Georgia and Ukraine is filled with the most serious, most profound geopolitical consequences for all of Europe,” Grushko told the LifeNews television channel.

But it was Russian expansion into Georgia and Ukraine that changed Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture. And it is Russia that is trying, as ever, to veto any further NATO expansion. ___ NATO Fears the Inevitable

In other words, conflict of some type between NATO and Russia is inevitable. Wise NATO leaders would make the necessary preparations.

More: NATO Rots from Within Germany and Turkey

Authoritarians in Russia and China face an End Game

…Aleksei Kudrin, a mainstay of the Putin government for more than a decade until his resignation last year, issued a report declaring that “research shows that the crisis” in the Russian economy and political system “has become irreversible, regardless of the scenarios of its further development. Maintaining political stability, let alone a return to the pre-crisis status quo, is no longer possible.” In a press conference, Kudrin said there was a fifty-percent chance that Russia was headed for a recession that would produce a political breakdown and a change of government.

Competition in the global defence market
From now on, Russia and China will find themselves caught in an increasingly risky competition for influence in Eurasia and elsewhere. China is winning in Central Asia, and is slowly but surely moving into the Russian Far East. If Putin does not step back from the abyss in Eastern Europe, the dragon will eventually have bear for lunch.

Putin’s China Syndrome

Russia’s grand projects are losing steam, its oil & gas are losing their clout.

A clash of worldviews need not necessarily lead to WWIII

Instead of antagonising NATO, both the bear and the dragon should be courting NATO and the west so as to assure access to advanced western science and technology into the indefinite future.

World’s Top 1000 Universities

Russia is lucky to have any schools in the top 1000. In ten years it may not have any of that rank.

Already now, Russia’s scientific institutions and universities lack access to everything from subscriptions to the latest technical journals to modern lab equipment. That will one day take its toll.

… the number of Russians adequately skilled in their professions to work in the outside world will rapidly decline in the near future. And when the question arises, “Is it time yet to get out of here?” the answer will increasingly be: “Nobody needs you over there, anyway.” __ http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/will-russias-brain-drain-dry-up-op-ed/527001.html

China is struggling in the education department as well — as one might expect of a nation that jails and murders its most promising minds unable to escape the country.

Can China dominate the 21st century?

Rather than “the China century,” what is approaching out of the fog is more likely “the coming anarchy.” Best begin making provisions, should Pax Americana break down entirely.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

More:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/07/russia-slides-back-to-the-middle-ages.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/vladimir-putin-failed-spy/2015/08/07/1b51170a-3c72-11e5-b3ac-8a79bc44e5e2_story.html

Russian GDP plunges almost 5% . . . No relief in sight

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3 Responses to China Russia NATO

  1. bob sykes says:

    The only regions not experiencing or approaching population collapse are Africa and India, so the real question is, Who goes away first? Likely Russia, but all the rest will follow inexorably, including the US.

    World population generally follows the low UN projection, which is the only one based on current data and reasonable assumptions. That projection has the total world population peaking around 2030 at 8 to 8.5 billion, with a slow decline thereafter. It is possible that would be a good thing overall. Japan seems to be managing fairly well, better than we are.

    Russia, China, Europe and North America also either are in or entering a period of internal multicultural conflict, which might evolve into open race warfare. Europe adds open religious warfare. It’s hard to see how any of these regions can maintain the sort of internal cohesion needed for democratic government functioning. The best model for the future of these countries (and us) might be Hussein’s Iraq or Assad’s Syria, both multicultural states held together by brute force. Of course, we ended that.

    The US and western Europe are also undergoing large-scale colonization by low IQ masses from Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. The combination of no social cohesion and uneducable masses makes the bright technological future you often write about seem like in-your-face mockery. Mad Max seems more likely.

  2. Rollory says:

    “conflict of some type between NATO and Russia is inevitable”

    If by “NATO” you mean “the United States”, ok. I don’t agree with it but I can understand the position. It’s fairly typical inside-the-Beltway thinking.

    However if you mean that European nations/peoples/governments are remotely interested and/or willing to lift a finger to stop Russia from doing whatever the hell it likes anywhere in the borders of the former USSR, *or* if you mean that Russia has any intention or interest in crossing the Polish or Hungarian border with military forces of any type, then you are simply wrong. I would advise spending a few months living in Europe and speaking with people in their native languages to begin getting a grasp on the extent of your error. NATO is simply not a factor.

    The European military challenge is to harden their hearts and start using up-to-deadly force against migrants. NATO was a tool to keep the Russians out – and shows up in headlines now only when ex-Soviet satellites want a usefully dimwitted tool to counterbalance Russia – and is no longer of any meaning or practical use to the western European member states for whose defense it was originally formed.

    • alfin2101 says:

      Yes. Most European nations have population pyramids very much like Russia or Japan. They simply do not signify when talking about the future.

      But NATO does not need to fight Russia. As long as oil prices are $50 + dollars bbl below Russia’s fiscal breakeven, and sanctions against Russian interests have even a minimal effect in limiting the movement of advanced outside technology into Russia, Russia as we now know it (forget the former USSR) is toast. NATO only needs to position solid forces along the new iron curtain that Putin has thrown up. Russia will never again be in a condition to challenge even a much-weakened NATO, if NATO chooses to place itself where the dangers are greatest to its members..

      NATO is basically the US, UK, and Canada. Poland is becoming stronger, so it must be reckoned with in NATO meetings. The Baltic states have a direct stake in how aggressive the madman Putin becomes, and I would not write them off as merely a part of the former USSR. That would be a parochially Russian POV which Kremlin propagandists and trolls would like for Europeans to foolishly adopt.

      What was NATO involvement in Afghanistan all about? Does anyone know? Certainly European nations/peoples / governments were not — for the most part — remotely interested and / or eager to lift a finger to fight in Afghanistan? Sometimes when multinational alliances are involved, decisions are made that are difficult to explain in hindsight, and impossible to predict in foresight.

      Most Europeans probably did not want to fight WWI or WWII either. Events sometimes have a way of moving the world in directions it does not want to go. It really depends upon how madly insane Putin allows himself to go.

      Putin and Russians respect only strength. Anything besides palpable strength is seen as weakness, and a green light for further aggression. You don’t have to fight a war if your enemy sees you as very strong and willing to use your strength. That is NATOs only task when it comes to Russia.

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