Uneducated and unskilled populations are proliferating, while skilled and educated populations are dying off.
[By 2050] there will be more Japanese over age 80 than under 15. Japan’s population – now 127 million – is expected to fall to 108 million by 2050. By 2100, according to the U.N., the population could be 84.5 million, but Japan’s National Institute of Population projects a drop to roughly 60 million. __ http://www.ocregister.com/articles/countries-691974-population-world.html
Is immigration the answer? Japan doesn’t think so, although Europe is now accepting millions of untrained, uneducated, culturally alien and antagonistic immigrants in an attempt to keep the welfare state going.
Germany and Europe in general faces demographic headwinds and workforce gaps that will serve as major economic drags for years to come.
… the millions of refugees to enter Europe in 2015 are young, [but] their lack of qualifications and barriers to integration make them unlikely to contribute towards meaningful workforce solutions, especially in the near term.
Of the top ten national populations in 1950, 5 will drop out by 2035. Russia, Japan, Germany, UK, and Italy will be on the decline, quite possibly beyond the point of no return.
Differential rates of demographic growth are contributing to a New International Population Order. Whereas six of the world’s 10 largest populations in 1950 were more developed countries, today the number is two – the United States and the Russian Federation – and by 2035 the Russian Federation is projected to be displaced by Ethiopia (Figure 1).
… Average ages of population, for example, have increased in most countries, with the highest now at 46 years in Italy, Germany and Japan. Among the developed countries the proportion of elderly aged 65 years and older surpassed for the first time the number of children aged 0 to 14 in 2015 and that noteworthy transition is expected among the developing countries in 2075.
Developed nations’ populations are ageing; undeveloped nations’ populations — particularly in Africa — are young and fertile.
Japan has been particularly singled out as an ageing nation with ongoing depopulation of the countryside.
Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is also its oldest. The average age is 46, among the oldest in the world, due mostly to low fertility rates (only about eight births per 1,000 people) and long life expectancies (to age 84 on average).
…. Meantime, Japan’s working-age population has been declining since the late 1990s and is on track to shrink by more than a third by 2035. That decline is a function not only of its low birthrate, but also its lack of immigration, a factor that continues to augment the working-age populations of most Western countries.
Nations with declining working age populations and loss of skilled populations without replacement, share particularly poor prospects for the future. Japan, Korea, Russia, Italy, Spain, Germany, and other European nations share that sorry fate.
“The Russian population collapse is one of the most severe in the world. Five years from now, the Russians will not have sufficient demographic capacity to man the Red Army. It’ll be less than half the size that it is today. So if the Russians are going to use military strategy to assure brighter days, Putin knows they have to do it now. And so he is by expanding west.”
… “There is a lot of noise breaking out of the international system about Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Russia, the Ukraine and China. There’s this perception that things are falling apart. And they are. It’s not myth. Things really are falling apart. But international instability doesn’t hurt the United States anymore. In fact, if you want to be really cold about it, it actually helps.” __ http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/cheryl-hall/20151110-u.s.-is-unstoppable-as-the-worlds-economic-lion-geopolitical-expert-says.ece
Russia’s life expectancy and birth rate are once again showing signs of strain under the current Putin recession. The Russian population is ageing rapidly — and not at all gracefully.
‘The mortality rate is increasing this year. No one knows yet how high it will get and for how long. I cautiously suggest that it is the beginning of another round of mortality rate growth,’ said Vlasov.”
There are many factors that can be said to be to blame for Russia’s life expectancy falling below the global average, although it is hard to assess the importance of each one. A poorly performing economy is one factor, especially as government expenditure on health care is being reduced. Additionally, Russians are “reckless” about their health and consume “unhealthy” amounts of alcohol. This might be down to the “here and now” mentality of many Russians who do not plan ahead and think about their lives in the future since “life in Russia is so unpredictable” (Isupova). What is more surprising and sad is that “lack of motivation” is also one of the potential factors. Isupova argues that many elderly Russians are lacking the desire to continue living. She explains that:
“It doesn’t mean a person wants to commit suicide, she said, but they care less about their health. ‘Especially men — when they get older, they simply don’t see a role for themselves in society. Once they quit their jobs and become pensioners, they don’t know what to do with their lives,’ while women, at least, can enjoy being grandmothers, she told The Moscow Times in a phone interview.”
And, as Russia’s population ages, this lack of motivation has the potential to become even more of a problem.
The map above provides an estimate of global population shrinkage and growth by nation. The source website explains why Islam is expected to grow so rapidly in the next 30 years.
Comparing the population pyramids of Africa and Europe in the image below, one can easily predict population growth rates and ageing trends in an approximate sense.
And indeed, we see Europe rapidly ageing, and a flood of African immigrants rushing onto European shores, looking for the promised land.
One African in two is a child. The numbers are such that traditional ways of caring for children in extended families and communities are breaking down. In southern Africa, as a result of HIV/AIDS, an increasing number of families are headed by children. A recent report by the African Child Policy Forum, an advocacy group, says there are now 50m orphaned or abandoned children in Africa. It thinks the number could rise to 100m, meaning misery for them and more violent crimes for others.
… In some cities the rate of unemployment is 70%. The unemployed are recruited into militias or gangs for the price of a day’s wage. There was evidence of this after last year’s Kenyan elections, when politicians and businessmen stood accused of paying young men to turn parts of the country into war zones. Lots of underemployed young people mean too many hotheads and not enough elders. Paul Collier, an Africa specialist at Oxford University, thinks that in such circumstances young African men are “very dangerous”.
Europe is soon to discover just how many circumstances exist in which young African [and middle eastern] men can be “very dangerous.”
Global demographics represents a coming conflict of North vs. South, Old vs. Young, Rich vs. Poor, high IQ vs. low IQ, technologically advanced vs. technologically backward . . .
These trends will help fuel future wars. They will be complicated by the economic, energy, and immigration policies that are adopted by the advanced world in response to the climate apocalypse cult of pseudoscience, the green energy scam, the perceived need to maintain an unsustainable welfare state, and petty political concerns and corruption which underpin all large political and ideological entities.
Although there is nothing mysterious about all of this, the capacity of humans to ignore critical and imminent trends which are of the profoundest consequences to themselves, is unlimited.
Everything you think you know, just ain’t so. And the time available to learn what you will need to know to survive the coming interim, is vanishingly small.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late for a Dangerous Childhood.
Think of the demographic transition and the various techniques to deal with it by different countries as a giant experiment. Any good experiment has a control group and several experimental groups. Japan is the control group in that they will not allow any immigrants in. North America and Europe are the experimental groups in terms of immigration policy.
The people (mostly westerners of liberal persuasion) argue that Japan should allow for immigration. This, of course, results in an experiment with no control group. Does that make any sense at all (completely ignoring the issue of immigration itself)?
Fine, fine article Al Fin.
I wanted to add something though, simply because of the structure of human societies IQ’s much over a hundred and too much low time preference are basically abnormal. On the whole, they are not needed or useful for the human animal except in spurts
No society today can use a large well educated high IQ populace even one as large as we have and in fact the elite, mostly Mid-Wits as Vox day would call them (IQ 115 to 125 types) hate them for the simple reason that they present a constant ongoing threat to their social position, especially the super smart who can toss an economic system on its ear at any moment
Even if they weren’t a threat, we don’t have use for them. Our societies cannot be made flexible enough to tolerate constant disruption and exclusive of the Chinese menace immigration and a few other issues , I’d suggest that if we were pushing most smart people into Conservative social sciences instead of STEM and finance we’d slow our development but would be doing the right thing.
The only way humanity as a whole would be able to get smart and stay smart is either to uplift everyone to K selected, ultra smart people or to change the human biological social matrix a bit. Make people less dependent ion social posturing and the biological level. You can do both but if some of the stranger corners of the web are accurate, you’ve just recreated Neanderthal man
This would however end up with a greatly reduced population as well and is of course far too risky as anything but a gedanken
You might be interested in this:
“The North Worth Saving” by Srdja Trifkovic, Chronicles Magazine,February 2009