The concept of “ethnic Russian” is difficult to pin down, exactly. Putin seems willing to go to war with all comers over the ambiguous idea of Russian ethnicity. We hope that saner heads will prevail.
Moscow, certainly, is full of people who would not likely be considered “ethnic Russian.”
… there have been frequent indications that the official Rosstat numbers are inaccurate both because of the ways in which the information is gathered – many non-Russians in Moscow avoid enumeration – and processed – officials boost the number of ethnic Russians by folding in other groups into that category or by outright falsification.
… According to this source, of the 10,969,000, people in Moscow, ethnic Russians form 31 percent, Ukrainians eight percent, and Belarusians three percent, thus giving the Slavs as a group 42 percent of the total, still less than half of a city that many view as archetypically Russian.
There are many Turkic people living in Moscow, and many more living in Russia as a whole.
Given that “ethnic Russians” have fertility rates near 1.3 children per woman, and the TFR for Turkics and other Muslims is closer to 2 or above, Russia’s “average TFR” of 1.7 reveals how populations are shifting away from “ethnic Russians.”
We can genetically divide the Russian people into two main types: Northern Russians and Southern Russians.
… “Here, we see that (in our analysis) modern Russians appear to be the result of two admixture events: one event a few hundred years ago between a population best represented by modern Eastern European populations, and one best represented in our sample by the Oroquen [a Tungusic-speaking people of northern China]; and a second, much older event. […] very ancient East Asian ancestry prior to 500BC, in the case of Russia at least, and a recent event, consistent with approximately Mongol-empire era admixture, together contributing ~10% of DNA in [ethnic] Russians […]”
Multiple genetic studies of Russia with the expected conflicting results were quoted at the link above.
In the Wikipedia article on Russian Demography, it is said that Russia contains roughly 80% “ethnic Russians (2010 census),” with the remainder made up of mainly Turkic and other Muslim groups. There are over 12 million Turkics living in Russia, according to this Wikipedia article. Continuing differential birthrates between Muslims and Russians will lead to a rapid shifting of the population balance over the next 35 years.
The genetic study of populations has just begun, so it may take many years before scientists can definitively answer the question: “What is an ethnic Russian?”
The growing number of minorities within Russia are becoming more uncomfortable with Putin’s quasi-racist approach to contemporary policy:
To understand and appreciate Putin’s decision [to annex Crimea], one has to understand the center piece of Russian policy. Throughout its history, Russification, as a social policy, has been a useful tool for empire building. It served as an artificial binding force for a large expanse of land populated by a variety of ethnic groups.
It’s surprising to learn that, for the first time in centuries, the Russians have become a majority in their own country. That was not true until recently and this fact could explain the emergence of a new majority rule social policy.
… Paying respects to the tsar meant recognizing the questionable right to rule. As leader of the Russian Empire, the implication was, of course, the Russians and their culture were superior to all other ethnic groups. and that the Russian Church was superior to all other religions.
… In Ukraine, Stalin put a halt to any separatism in favor of unity- meaning, of course, Russian domination. This was a leader who thought that ideas were more powerful than guns and one idea that could not be tolerated was state sovereignty.
This repressive and regressive philosophy gave rise to the image of the Soviet Union as a monolithic state, resistant to change. All that came crashing down with startling suddenness when the countries that made up the Soviet Union asserted their independence and established claims to their own sovereign borders.
With the fall of the Soviet Union, one might have thought this policy would have been tossed into the rubbish bin of history. However, in Georgia and now in Crimea, Putin has found a new use for Russification, probably its last real utility.
As a pretext for a Russian invasion, minority Russian populations can claim (with little or no legitimacy) of mistreatment by the majority, and Russia can wear the mask of the pretend defender of the pretend victim. Although Putin received standing ovations when he formally announced the annexation of Crimea, few outside Russia are fooled by the land grab of Crimea.
All of this is even more ironic, given the ambiguous nature of “Russian ethnicity” itself. In many parts of Russia, Turkics are in the majority. Perhaps that should give them the right to break away from the Russian yoke? It doesn’t matter. Sooner or later, the demographics of Russia will shrink the central core of the state to the area surrounding Moscow and St. Petersburg.
In the meantime, the current dictator of Russia is leading the nation’s people into some hard times in the name of protecting “ethnic russians”:
The economic costs of Russia’s more aggressive foreign policy continues to pile up. While unemployment has remained at about five percent underemployment and widespread poverty is growing. The government recently announced that the GDP shrank 3.7 percent so far this year. But average family income has fallen ten percent and inflation (over ten percent a year) is reducing consumer purchasing power further. A lot of this increase has been caused by escalating food prices. The official poverty rate is up to 15 percent and the actual rate could be nearly twice that. Some parts of the country have an official poverty rate of close to 40 percent. Foreign and local economists do not see this decline halting for another two or three years. That assumes that the price of oil will remain low, Western sanctions remain in force and foreign investors will continue to stay away. The economic damage has been so great that Russia has fallen out of the top ten of world economies. The government budget is shrinking as well but some government spending has not been cut much, if at all (like the military, intelligence services and police). There are big cuts in construction and maintenance of infrastructure (housing, transportation, utilities) and cost-of-living increases for millions of elderly pensioners. The fall in the value of the ruble (against foreign currencies) had led a growing number of foreign airlines halting all service to Russia and a growing number of foreign companies are shutting down their Russian operations. Now, because of Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane, Russia has imposed a lot of economic sanctions on Turkey, a major trading partner. While these will hurt Turkey, the Turks do not have international sanctions imposed on them like Russia does and can find outer customers and suppliers. Russia is not so fortunate and will suffer more economic damage because of the sanctions on Turkey.
Russia says it is adapting to the sanctions and doing a lot more trade with China and China is supplying a lot of the lost foreign investment (essential for economic growth). China is not replacing what has been lost of foreign investment, which is down over 80 percent even with the Chinese help.
And so on top of all of its economic problems, Putin now wants to go to war — in a figurative and economic sense — with Turkey!
Staunton, November 29 – Moscow’s war of words against Turkey and its insistence that the rest of the Turkic world break with Ankara over the shooting down of the Russian warplane over Turkish airspace are alienating both the Turkic republics inside the Russian Federation and Turkic countries beyond Russia’s borders that Moscow has wanted to keep as friends.
The article linked above demonstrates how the Kremlin is putting counter-productive pressures on Turkic republics within Russia, and stirring up trouble in Turkic states in Central Asia.
By disrespecting Turkey’s “near abroad,” Putin caused the shooting down of the Russian military jet. Russian elites should encourage Putin to take a “time out” before he makes enemies of virtually every nation on Earth except Iran.
The real threats to Russia are the black swans that no one expects — least of all Putin. Demographic decline comes naturally to a nation whose people have lost their way. Mortality rates are back up. Birth rates to “ethnic Russian” women are down for multiple reasons.
Russia has over 1 million slaves living within its borders. At this time Russia holds the largest slave population of any nation at least partially based in Europe. Many contemporary Russians living inside Russia are descendants of freed serfs, so slavery in Russia may be easier for many to accept.
As more Muslims flood into Germany, slavery is likely to increase there. Muslims have never given up slavery.
Millions of children end up on the streets in Russian cities. Girls fall into prostitution, boys fall into crime.
Young girls as young as 11 are groomed to become “models,” only to find out later that the word “model” is used very loosely in Russian organised crime circles — including those linked to government officials.
Other than the girls who get out of Russia to study, to work in legitimate fields, or to marry, the luckiest girls in Russia are those who can pay $1,000 a week to be trained as mistresses for businessmen and gangsters.
: “Never wear jewelry on a first date, the man should think you’re poor. Make him want to buy you jewelry. Arrive in a broken-down car: make him want to buy you a smarter one.”
The students take notes in neat writing. They have paid a thousand dollars for each week of the course. There are dozens of such “academies” in Moscow and St. Petersburg, with names such as “Geisha School” or “How to Be a Real Woman.”
“Go to an expensive area of town,” continues the instructress. “Stand with a map and pretend you are lost. A wealthy man might approach to help.”
The only thing that “ethnic Russian” people still living inside of Russia are left with, is an insincere jacked-up nationalism that exists mainly to benefit Putin. And cheap vodka.
Why is Russia constantly at war, again?
DANGER WARNING! The Following Highly Classified Information is on a Strict Need To Know Basis Only
The Russian government recently announced a plan to open up 6 of its 42 publicly identified closed cities (officially named closed administrative-territorial formations), as of January 1, 2016 (Tvrain.ru, October 30). Closed cities, a carryover institution from the Soviet Union, are home to military installations; facilities used for the development, production, or storage and disposal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD); and other facilities considered central to Russian national security (Interfax, October 23). During the Soviet era, these cities were given code names and did not appear on official maps. In their current manifestation, many of these cities have been identified and have been permitted to resume using the historical names they held prior to their closure. However, entry into these cities is still strictly regulated, even for Russian citizens.
If you were previously unaware of Russia’s “closed cities,” you must forget that you ever heard of them.
But seriously, Russia’s economic situation must be growing dire for this first opening of the closed cities to be taking place. We should all hope that none of Russia’s WMD stocks will mysteriously escape onto the global black market in the midst of all the change and turmoil.