Will the Disintegration of the Russian Government Lead to Chaos?
Robert D. Kaplan says yes, and there are many reasons to agree. A few optimists have other ideas:
The looming disintegration of the Russian Federation would “not be a catastrophe but a good thing” for non-Russians who would be able to keep more of their own resources, for Russians who would gain the chance to move toward democracy, and the rest of the world because Moscow would be less threatening… __ Quoted in Window on Eurasia
Of course, it is Ukrainian business analysts who are being optimistic about the coming disintegration of Russia, so take it with a grain of salt. 😉
The global economic downturn of 2007-2009 was a dress rehearsal for something worse that is likely to hit the world’s economies over the next several years. The sub-prime crisis was bad enough, but it was easily understood in retrospect, and could have been easily prevented by a better class of politicians and ratings agencies inside the US.
What is coming will be more widely and deeply rooted, harder to eradicate, and more difficult for most analysts to understand — largely because most analysts are incapable of seeing beyond their nation or area of special interest.
Your Government is Sponsoring a Censored Invasion
For the last [few years], articles about an alarming rise in rape in Scandinavian countries committed by North African and Middle Eastern immigrants circulated on the Internet. But, by and large, the mainstream media ignored these items. The reason for this was obvious. No one, least of all anyone employed by a liberal publication or broadcast outlet, wanted to bolster paranoia about Muslims or foreigners or, even worse, feed race-based sexual fear that fuels racial violence. __ https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/europe/immigration-unmentionable-refugee-question-cologne/
The stealth invasion of the civilised world by primitive peoples from parts of Asia and Africa can have consequences as devastating as an attack from outer space. We may focus on the “rape epidemic” but the broader consequences of this invasion will make the rape invasion seem like a friendly game of “spin the bottle.”
“German Russians” Want These Violent New Immigrants GONE!
Russian-speaking Germans who immigrated to Germany from the former USSR are the biggest and most influential group of immigrants inside Deutschland Today.
Although there is a perception that Turks and Poles account for the biggest immigrant groups in Germany, the plurality of those meeting this definition are Russian-speaking people from the former Soviet Union, mainly Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan…
“It’s stupid and dangerous to open the gate to anyone who wants in,” says Julia Brinkmann, a “Russian” living in Berlin. “How do you integrate such a mass?”
There still are fewer Middle Easterners and Africans combined in Germany than there are “Russians.” __ http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-06/germany-s-russians-are-wary-of-new-arrivals
Hitler might have done better going after the violent, low-achieving tribal groups in Asia and Africa, rather than trying to “avenge past wrongs by France” and attempting to exterminate the Jews. Hitler destroyed much of Europe irrevocably, and Putin and Merkel are doing their best to finish the job.
No Death Star Needed When the Corrupt, Stupid, Dishonest, and Power-Mad Rule
Between a slowing Chinese economy, collapsing commodity prices, and the beginning of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle, many emerging-market economies have become quite fragile, notably Russia and Brazil __ 5 Views on 2016 Economic Decline
No, there is no need for an invasion from outer space. Criminal governments have already conquered, and control the media, academia, and other cultural institutions of indoctrination and coercion.
GDP Numbers Are Largely Untrustworthy: Consider that You May Have Been Suckered!
Based on the research firm’s own sales managers indexes, India’s growth is in line with official numbers, Jones said. “In contrast, our China Index is showing much more muted levels of growth in the region of about half the official data suggests.”
Economic incompetence, criminality, and dishonesty abounds at the highest levels of the BRICS nations. It is only being exposed as the China bubbles begin to pop.
A darker view sees a credit bubble emanating from years of misguided over-investment in China’s infrastructure, housing and manufacturing. China has created an unsustainable credit bubble, and this will come crashing down, taking the Chinese—and by implication, East Asian—economy with it. This view does not deny the need to restructure the Chinese economy, but anticipates a cyclical downturn, a financial crisis along the lines of 1998. The Chinese economy will not see a “soft landing,” but rather a full-blown crash. __ Hasta la vista, Dragon Bubble
“We judge that China’s debt situation has probably passed the point of no-return and it will be difficult to grow out of the problem,” states a report by Bank of America’s chief strategist David Cui.
One of China’s more intriguing postures is the forming of alliances with Ukraine and other Eastern European and Central Asian nations formerly under the economic thumb of Russia.
Because of all the Cold War era arms factories Ukraine inherited in 1991 when the Soviet Union, not to mention huge stockpiles of Soviet weapons, ammo and equipment, Ukraine became one of the biggest exporters of military gear on the planet in the 1990s. China has been a regular customer and is familiar with what the Ukrainians can do. Because China is one of the few major allies Russia has, Russia in unlikely to pressure China to back away from deals with Ukraine. China and Ukraine have been doing business since the 1990s and China sees more opportunity there, despite the threat of Russian invasion (which would probably avoid damaging Chinese properties).
__ Chinese Alliance With Ukraine Grows
It is logical that China reaches out economically and militarily to Ukraine, to hedge its bets. Because of how military manufacturing was apportioned between the parts of the USSR, Ukraine became better at building many things than almost all Russian military plants. Military turbine engines, critical parts for ships, fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, missiles, rockets, and other important items and systems needed by a high-tech military, were often better-made and designed by the Ukrainian contingent. After the breakup of the USSR — and particularly since the Kremlin’s ongoing war against Ukraine — China is tempted to shop at the better military store whenever possible.
Russia, on the other hand, has painted itself into a corner.
… Russia has entered a phase of mutual estrangement with a large part of Europe; and it has, for the foreseeable future, acquired a hostile Ukraine on its border, whose new foundation for nation-building is based on hostility to Russia. Finally, Russia has been sucked into the permanent theater of conflict that is the Middle East. This is the price to pay for its bid to return to the world political arena after a twenty-five-year break.
… Russia needs to unambiguously prioritize domestic development—not just for the sake of having an international role, but to give itself any kind of future. Russia’s current political and economic order, if it persists, will sooner or later doom it to a tragic failure as a state. __ http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2015/12/15/russia-needs-plan-c/in4j
Many crucial military parts and systems which the Kremlin had counted on for its grand military renovation, are no longer available from Ukraine and the west.
For that and many other reasons, Russia is forced to inflate its “Potemkin Military Juggernaut.”
Almost all of the Russian Ground Forces’ tanks and armored vehicles date back to the 1980s. Russia’s lone carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, was launched in 1990. All three types of Russian heavy bombers pounding Syria were built by the Soviet Union and only inherited by Russia.
… International sanctions, brought on by Russia’s annexation of the Crimea as well as plunging oil prices have quickly taken a heavy toll on the economy. The Russian economy has slipped into recession, with GDP alone slipping 4 percent in the past 12 months.
A falling economy has affected military spending. In 2015, Russia’s defense budget increased by a staggering 33 percent. However, before the year was over some of that spending had to be taken back, and the increase was revised downward to 25 percent. Unable to forecast an end to Russia’s economic problems, the defense budget is slated to go up less than 1 percent in 2016.
… Russia is not self-sufficient in a great deal of high tech industry and relies on international vendors — when the Russian shipyard Sevmash refurbished an aircraft carrier for India, a large amount of equipment was sourced from the West and Japan, likely without their knowledge. That sort of sourcing is just not going to happen anymore.
… Struck by sanctions, Russia’s defense production will be hampered by a lack of a domestic high tech industry, sometimes in the unlikeliest of ways: For example, modern fighters and the Armata tank make extensive use of LCD displays to convey information to the crew. Russia, unlike the much smaller South Korea, has no domestic LCD industry.
Needless to say, Russia’s ambition to spend $700 billion on armaments is as dead as Julius Caesar.
The Kremlin’s impulsive rush to war has turned out to be one of its Achille’s heels, rather than the mark of a strong nation — as it wishes the world to believe. As the truth about Russia’s “paper bear” military becomes better known, the Kremlin may be tempted to fall back on its nuclear ace in the hole — either under its own flag, or via a cats paw such as North Korea.
If there is insufficient political will for comprehensive reform, then, just as happened with the last imperial regime a century ago, an acute foreign policy crisis could trigger the collapse of not just the system, but the entire country.
China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and other members of that medieval clique of nations, have been ramping up their “nuclear rhetoric” and overall war talk recently. This sabre-rattling and war-mongering does not help the global outlook for 2016 and beyond. Modern emerging styles of warfare will likely change things significantly. But Russia, China, and its low-rent allies in North Korea, Iran, Syria, etc. have been slow on the uptake — except on the cyber-warfare and theft-of-technology fronts. Disruptive technologies in hundreds of other areas have been passing the new “axis of evil” entirely, due to their inability to maintain interactive bottom-up economic structures that trade freely. Graft exerts too strong a pull on Putin, Xi, the mad mullahs, and most other leaders of emerging, third, and primitive world nations, for them to allow a healthy and partially independent economic structure to emerge inside their fiefdoms.
And so the forces of disintegration rage quietly but fiercely inside the distinct regions of the bear and the dragon, from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok to Xinjiang to the China Seas. Potential for fragmentation within Africa and tribal Asia is incalculable and ancient. In Latin America, Brasil and Bolivia have significant potential for internal division. A civil war in Venezuela is not out of the question, although the new government there may mitigate some of the deadly tension that has been building up.
The emerging global economic decline and poxy anarchy of 2016 and beyond has old and strong roots that grow in Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America, and parts of the Anglosphere. Politics, Economics, Demography, Organised Crime, Technological Advances, Ancient Blood Feuds, and the multitude of weaknesses residing in human nature and reborn on a daily basis out of the human genome, combine with other factors to create an unraveling of immense proportions.
Remember that one should never underestimate the ability of “third world infiltrators” and invaders into Europe and the Anglosphere to stir up trouble. New methods of dealing with them will have to be devised, possibly using some of the disruptive technologies well known only to a few.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.
Those Who Put Their Money on Russia, China, and the BRICS are in for a World of Hurt
Being misinformed is unfortunate, but not fatal. Being too
stupid stubborn to change course when the information landscape clears, may be an incurable condition — past a certain age. Remember that the ability to change one’s own mind can be an exhilarating experience. Never pass up a good opportunity to do so.