China’s Leader Prepares for a Major Crisis

President, Party Secretary, and Supreme Military Commander Xi Jinping Prepares for Crises Ahead

China’s President Xi Jinping has made extreme changes to the organisation of the CPC’s military (the PLA)

Xi has made a strong move to consolidate all military power in China directly under his own command. Until now, the man who was President and Party Secretary also had nominal control over the PLA. But now Xi has made that control unmistakably real.

Under sweeping changes to the military, the headquarters of the General Staff, General Political, General Logistics and General Armaments departments are being replaced with seven departments, three commissions and five affiliated institutions, state-run CCTV reported on Monday.

The new units will come under the CMC’s [Central Military Command’s] direct control rather than be overseen by one of the headquarters.

Defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian said the agencies would become “advisory, implementation and service bodies to the CMC” __

More on this and other recent changes by Xi to the PLA

Crisis I: China Bubbles are Ready to Pop in Domino Fashion

There are lots of bubbles inside China, largely because both national and local governments have pursued a mix of stimulative policies even as the health of the underlying growth model deteriorated. Massive over-investment in real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing capacity, overvalued stock prices and poorly priced financial assets have created an increasingly toxic and dangerous economic situation inside China, and a rattled government is doing its best to keep the system from imploding…

All over the world, the producers of commodities and manufactured goods have bought into the idea that Chinese demand is a perpetual growth machine. Producers of everything from cotton to copper to soybeans to silicon chips have assumed that double digit growth in China’s appetite for the components of its industrial machine will continue indefinitely—and they have invested to create the capacity to match this inexorably growing demand. From the jungles of Africa and the backwoods of Brazil to the rice paddies of Thailand and the Australian Outback there have been massive investments in mining, agriculture, energy production and infrastructure that assume continuing and even accelerating growth in Chinese demand…

We do not yet know whether China’s economy will fall into recession, or how exactly China will manage its mix of overbuilt manufacturing capacity, land speculation, empty apartments, local government debt and over-built infrastructure even as it attempts to move to a more market based economy. We do not and cannot know when all of China’s chickens will come home to roost—and how fast they will be running to get there.

__ Walter Russell Mead

This debt crisis cannot be solved

We are looking at the ongoing collapse of China’s internal bubbles, as well as the collapse of the global bubble in commodities and other markets that China’s internal bubbles caused to inflate around the world.

If exporting nations suffer as a result of the collapse of China bubbles, that will be something for them to deal with in one way or another. If China’s people suffer en masse as a result of the CPC’s corruption and manifest economic incompetence, that would be another matter — a matter for Xi’s shiny new security apparatus to deal with.

Crisis II: An Internal China Crisis Would Not Remain Confined to China

One of the main reasons that Xi is consolidating power in the party and its military, is because he understands the potential for China’s internal problems to spill out into the larger world. Keeping tight control over the Chinese provinces, armed forces, and militias will not be enough, if China’s people are pushed to the verge of revolt by economic crises.

China Needs Good Water, Good Soil, and Good Air That It Does Not Currently Have

China has destroyed the quality of its own soil, water, air, and food, in its heedless rush to blow industrial, real estate, and infrastructural bubbles of inferior quality construction. No thought was given to the future need for natural resources of high quality — the rush to accumulate hard assets and the illusion of hard power was too strong. Now that the house of cards is in danger of falling, China must look to new, undefiled resource supplies.

From Beijing’s viewpoint, the best source for new supplies of clean resources is the far east of Siberia, currently under the control of the Russian Federation.

Siberia is as resource-rich and people-poor as China is the opposite. The weight of that logic scares the Kremlin… Siberia – the Asian part of Russia, east of the Ural Mountains – is immense. It takes up three-quarters of Russia’s land mass, the equivalent of the entire U.S. and India put together. It’s hard to imagine such a vast area changing hands. But like love, a border is real only if both sides believe in it. And on both sides of the Sino-Russian border, that belief is wavering.


Six Wars China is Certain to Fight

China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

… China will make territorial claims based on the domain of Qing Dynasty (similar way by making use of the domain of the Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia) and to make propaganda campaigns favoring such claims. Efforts should also be made to disintegrate Russia again.

In the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of previous five wars, it is the time to make Russians pay their price.

There must be a war with Russia.

Though at that time, China has become an advanced power in navy, army, air and space forces, it is nevertheless the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China should be well prepared in nuclear weapons, such as the nuclear power to strike Russia from the front stage to the end. When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield. They can do nothing but to hand over their occupied lands and to pay a heavy price to their invasions. __ CDM

The real strategy to subjugate Russia and take back stolen Chinese lands, would involve a thorough infiltration of Chinese influence into every aspect of Russian weapons technology and military command and control. This has become easier due to Putin’s policies of isolating Russia from the more advanced parts of the world, and to the exquisite levels of corruption in Russia that prevent the internal development of domestic broad-based private industries that would spur technological innovation.

Russia is hopelessly dependent on outsiders for its advanced technologies, and China is an obvious direction for Russia to turn for help — in fact China is one of the very few countries still willing to provide Russia with many advanced electronic weapons systems. Russia is making it easy for China to insinuate itself into both weapons and communications systems.

When China is Forced to Move, It Must be Ready

The ongoing China Bubble collapse injects a sense of urgency into Xi’s drastic moves to consolidate power. China’s people have been prone to revolt against central power for many thousands of years. China’s entire history is a cyclic history of empire building followed by disintegration of empire. This cyclic history is well-known to China’s current leaders — they do not wish to allow the next inevitable collapse to occur while they are in power.

In just over a hundred years, China has endured multiple collapses of government and civil war — not to mention radical changes in the forms of existing governments and a great famine resulting in up to 50 million deaths.

The same recent history of multiple collapse applies to Russia, whose Tsarist empire collapsed in 1917. Within a year the successor government collapsed to the Bolsheviks. Stalin’s rise to power can be seen as an internal coup. In 1991, the government of the USSR collapsed. In 1998, the Russian government came very near to collapse during the economic crisis. Putin is currently pushing Russia closer and closer to another economic collapse which could lead to something much worse.

China and Russia are Destined to Fight it Out

It doesn’t really matter in the end what they are destined to fight over. Hard facts of life in China suggest that the trigger cause will be a matter of control of resources — as much of the course of WWII was dictated by the perceived needs of Japan and Germany to seize critical resources of enemies.

1.5 billion people is a lot of mouths to feed. And when a large number of those mouths are growing older and less able to produce for the rest, the pressure to provide ever greater resources for the masses becomes more severe. Xi is bright enough to feel the weight of history — and the futures of his multiple constituencies — on his shoulders. He can manage multiple chains of thought and planning on several time scales.

Putin lacks those senses and facilities. He is — to put it simply — a pig with a very good public relations staff. But the pig can still demand respect and feel a sense of self-pride. But he is not likely to understand what kills him at the end.

China is Still on the Ascent in Many Ways. Russia is On the Decline

China’s massive population is still growing, from sheer momentum. Russia’s population (without the Muslims) is shrinking — particularly from the Far East and much of the rest of the periphery. China is still extending its control outward. Russia’s control of its far-flung districts is becoming almost impossible to maintain.

All China needs is a bit more time to take further advantage of the ongoing decline of Russia, to minimise its own risks when it is forced by existential factors to seize the resources of its neighbors — including those of Russia.

How far China must go to destabilise and disassemble Russia depends entirely on the type of resistance Russia is perceived to be able to mount.


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2 Responses to China’s Leader Prepares for a Major Crisis

  1. bob sykes says:

    China merely reprocesses commodities into products for export. The weak Chinese demand for commodities reflects the fact that the external world itself is in recession, and its demand for Chinese products is collapsing. Chinese economic collapse is world economic collapse.

    As to war with Russia, China gets all it needs from a weakened Russia without provoking a nuclear war, which would damage China much more than Russia. There will be no invasion of Siberia until, and unless, Russia first collapses, which is not impossible. China’s military is aimed at its other neighbors. Taiwan is first on the list.

    • alfin2101 says:

      There is no mention of nuclear war except in the quoted china-patriot future scenario.

      In reality, China will not need to confront Russia’s nuclear weapons, nor is it likely to need to use nuclear weapons against Moscow for a decapitation strike on command and control. Thanks to Putin’s incompetence and the tendency of the Chinese to play a longer and more subtle game, China will have other, gentler means to castrate the bear.

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