Of All the Varieties of “Doom,” Demographic Doom is Most Likely to Lead to Wars and Collapse
… it’s the youth bulge that stands to put greater pressure on the global economy, sow political unrest, spur mass migration and have profound consequences for everything… __ Too Many Low-Quality Youth
Low IQ Nations Have Exploding Populations
Over the next 4 decades, the demographic explosion of low IQ youth will be severe in SubSaharan countries and in several Muslim nations experiencing youth bulges. The inevitable flood of refugees from wars, famines, and plagues in those regions will make today’s European migrant crisis look like a church picnic.
For the most part, these youth will be incapable of maintaining a high tech society, so expect infrastructure in host countries to decline — slowly at first, then in exponential fashion. In most countries of Europe, this decay will be seen within cities and communities that absorb the most immigrants — which often means the capital cities such as Paris, Brussels, London, etc. Over time, the decline will spread out and become a national problem.
Most Voters Incapable of Thinking that far Ahead
The welfare states of Europe are not prepared for the influx of low-IQ, low-skills, low-aptitude migrants that are headed toward their borders. In fact, across the advanced world, skilled work forces are in decline while unskilled and untrainable populations surge to break down all obstacles to entry. But they will be incapable of replacing the more intelligent and highly skilled populations that are dying off in countries such as Russia, Japan, Spain, Italy, Germany, etc. Such countries will experience a severe and unwelcome demographic awakening.
Many Buffer Nations are Filling Up with Refugees
Lebanon is certainly not the only country in the war-torn region to suffer from a swollen population due to refugees. In fact, Jordan actually has more refugees as a proportion of its population than Lebanon. Around a third (2.9 million) of the country’s population (9.5 million) is estimated by the Department of Statistics Census to be made up of refugees. Of those 2.5 million refugees nearly half (1.26 million) are from Syria while the rest are made up of Egyptians (636,000), Palestinians (634,000), Iraqis (131,000), Yemenis (31,000) and Libyans (23,000).
Thanks in part to the influx of millions of displaced persons from conflict zones Jordan’s population has skyrocketed in the past decade. In 2004 there were 5.1 million people in the Kingdom. In 2015 the population had grown by nearly 87 per cent to 9.5 million people! Yes, that’s right, in ten years, the country has doubled in size.
The majority of this population growth is due to non-Jordanians. The country’s population growth as a whole per year was about 5.3 per cent, but for non-Jordanian’s in the country it stood at 18 percent per year (!) and for Jordanians only 3.1 percent per year.
Other nations in “buffer zones” from North Africa to the middle east to various parts of Asia and Latin America are likewise filling up with illegal alien migrants posing as “refugees.”
Clearly some way of blunting this burgeoning bulge of low-IQ and low-aptitude / high violence-prone youth and young adults is becoming more urgent for the sake of global stability.
India is Pushing Depo-Provera Injections
This year the government is introducing the injectable contraceptive DMPA – better known as Depo-Provera – into the public health system, with a view to making it available throughout the country. Women who want to space their children will have free access to a reversible method of birth control – a three-monthly injection of a synthetic hormone (depot medroxyprogesterone acetate), administered discreetly away from husband and in-laws. If a woman wants another child they simply stop taking it and nine or ten months later they should be able to conceive.
Depo-Provera is a reversible form of contraception, less invasive than tubal ligations and abortion. Misoprostol and Mifepristone are two types of oral abortifacent, capable of terminating early pregnancies. Such forms of birth control are likely to become more common as low-cost methods of manufacture and distribution are developed for the third world.
China’s one-child policy helped to slow China’s out-of-control population growth, and rapid urbanisation provided perhaps an even stronger check on population growth. In China’s cities, most young couples will probably continue to opt for only one child, if opinion polls reflect the public mood accurately.
Japan: Preview of Coming Attractions for Developed World
The population is expected to shrink by a third in the next 50 years, and as a result, “the shadow of an economic collapse is creeping over Japanese society,” according to the Japanese Center for Economic Research. Facing that bleak forecast, the government is encouraging people to have children by subsidizing everything from speed dating to day care. But so far, those programs haven’t had much success.
Japan faces a collapse of its working-age population, as does Russia — and several European nations. While advanced robots and artificial intelligence can make up for some of the lack, the repercussions of such a population collapse would still be economically dire. Most futurists have failed to comprehend the depth of complexity of such demographic declines. Almost without exception, academics, journalists, and policy-planners do not understand that third world emigrants will not be able to replace the native populations of advanced countries, in terms of intelligence, aptitude, impulse control, creativity, innovativeness, and other traits necessary to support a high technology infrastructure.
Russia’s Problem in More Detail
At the end of 2014, the Russian statistical agency Rosstat published its updated demographic forecast through 2050. The forecast confirms that demographics will remain the biggest political, social, and economic challenge for Russia in the coming decades. Moreover, contrary to earlier estimates, the situation will not stabilize by 2030-2035.
… The forecast also provides an estimate for labor-force growth (population of the working age), which is important for assessing the long-term economic prospects of the country. Here, the forecast looks even worse, because the share of Russia’s working age population is declining by about the same magnitude in all scenarios—from 60 percent to less than 50 percent. This decline takes place in two waves: an initial labor force decline by 8-12 percent (medium and low scenarios) between 2015 and 2020, and then by another 10-20 percent after 2030 (Chart 3).
By 2050, Russia’s population is expected to drop to almost half of its current levels. Most of the decline will affect the numbers and quality of Russia’s workforce, military-aged force, and women of child-bearing age.
Russia and Japan are just a bit farther along than most advanced nations in terms of demographic decline. Spain, Italy, and Germany — as well as a number of Eastern and Central European nations, Canada, Taiwan and South Korea, face similar prospects.
China’s demographic problem — 35 million excess males compared to number of females — is likely to be solved via war and other large government funded projects requiring large levels of manpower. Coincidentally, the geographic area of Russia is likely to shrink, perhaps as one of the CPC’s projects.