Monthly Archives: May 2016

Nightmare on Your Street: Could You Survive the Loss of the Power Grid?

Posted on 31 May, 2016 by alfin2101

The Power Grid Has Gone Down and Will Not Come Back Up: What Do You Do? Stores are closed. Cell service is failing. Broadband Internet is gone. Hospitals are operating on generators, but rapidly running out of fuel. Garbage is … Continue reading →

Posted in Discontinuities, Doom, Electrical Power Grid, Survival Prepping, TEOTWAWKI | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

China’s Phantom GDP: 35% at Risk

Posted on 30 May, 2016 by alfin2101

How Far Can You Trust China’s GDP Numbers? The GDP framework cannot tell us whether final goods and services that were produced during a particular period of time are a reflection of real wealth expansion, or a reflection of capital … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Economics | Tagged | Comments Off on China’s Phantom GDP: 35% at Risk

Mastery is More Than a Matter of Time

Posted on 28 May, 2016 by alfin2101

… the difference between experts and less skilled subjects is not merely a matter of the amount and complexity of the accumulated knowledge; it also reflects qualitative differences in the organization of knowledge and its representation (Chi, Glaser & Rees, … Continue reading →

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How Large a Population Is Required to Build an Advanced Civilisation?

Posted on 25 May, 2016 by alfin2101

“The world we have made as a result of the level of thinking we have done thus far creates problems we cannot solve at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” — Albert Einstein Fertility is high … Continue reading →

Posted in Disruptive Technologies, IQ, Rebuilding Civilisation | Tagged | 11 Comments

Oil Prices May 2016

Posted on 25 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Oil markets are never in balance. Producers always misjudge demand and either over-shoot or under-shoot with supply. Balance is simply a zero-crossing from one state of disequilibrium to the next, from surplus to deficit and back again. __ Art Berman … Continue reading →

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The Hollowing Giant: Autophagy in the former USSR

Posted on 24 May, 2016 by alfin2101

autophagy: self-digestion; eating oneself Corrupt institutions and governments divert resources away from productive projects and enterprises, toward powerful insiders in government, and well-connected family, business, and criminal interests. This results in a “hollowing out” of the competence and productivity of … Continue reading →

Posted in Russian Decline | Tagged | 2 Comments

Sweet AGE-ing: Focus on Advanced Glycation End-Products

Posted on 23 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Advanced glycation end products, (AGEs) are proteins or lipids that become glycated as a result of exposure to sugars.[1] They can be a factor in aging and in the development or worsening of many degenerative diseases, such as diabetes, atherosclerosis, … Continue reading →

Posted in Biomedicine, Longevity, Practical Medicine | Tagged | Comments Off on Sweet AGE-ing: Focus on Advanced Glycation End-Products

Venezuelan Utopia: Is It the Future?

Posted on 22 May, 2016 by alfin2101

For years, the top radical tourist destination, the political equivalent of the Pattaya Beach brothel, has been Chavista Venezuela. Hollywood stars, the leaders of the British Labour party and Spanish “popular resistance”, and every half-baked pseudo-left intellectual from Noam Chomsky … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, geopolitics, Utopia, Venezuela | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Making the World Safe for Sex

Posted on 21 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Summer Olympics in Brasil and a Young Man’s Thoughts Turn to Sex But is it safe? Thanks to a growing endemic threat of Zika virus in Brasil, you can’t be sure. No one wants to be condemned to death — … Continue reading →

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US Isolationism in the 21st Century: Quest for Unaligned Utopia

Posted on 20 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Once, the US was a relatively isolationist destination — the shining city on a hill for opportunity seekers around the world. Built upon a wise legal foundation, it had only to deal with a number of pesky issues of human … Continue reading →

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Demography and Fertility: Destiny and the Fickle Womb

Posted on 19 May, 2016 by alfin2101

The lowest TFR rate in 1970 was Finland at 1.8, but by 2014 Singapore had the lowest rate at just 0.8! The highest rate in 1970 was Rwanda which had a TFR of 8.2. In 2014, Niger had the highest … Continue reading →

Posted in Coming Anarchy, Demographics, Dysgenics, Economics | Tagged , | 14 Comments

Financial Crisis: Who Will Be Next to Reach Deadly Default?

Posted on 18 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Venezuela is an extreme example of a nation driven to deadly default by a string of bad government policies. Why “deadly default?” People are dying in Venezuela because hospitals, other institutions, and much of the public cannot afford foods, medicines, … Continue reading →

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Venezuela | Tagged | Comments Off on Financial Crisis: Who Will Be Next to Reach Deadly Default?

Living in Deep Space: Growing Living Space Colonies

Posted on 17 May, 2016 by alfin2101

NASA has funded an approach to robot construction of a “growable” space habitat. Such construction is meant to be scaled from habitat scale up to larger colony scales. Deep Space: Scalable Habitats for Long Distance Space Travel or for Distant … Continue reading →

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Shadow Wars and The Modern Mercenary

Posted on 15 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Characteristics of Shadow Wars 1. States matter less. Today’s “great powers” aren’t just countries, they’re multinational corporations as well as the super-rich. The Fortune 500 are more powerful than most countries, most of which are fragile or failed states. … … Continue reading →

Posted in Europe, Military, Russia | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Murdering the Criminal Class: A Case Study

Posted on 14 May, 2016 by alfin2101

The obvious way to eradicate crime is to eradicate criminals, but neither the lawgivers nor the constabulary seem inclined to do this. __ Jeff Cooper Case Study: Phillipines Eradicating criminals may seem a radical approach to eradicating crime, but there … Continue reading →

Posted in Crime, Crime and Punishment | Tagged | 5 Comments

Beyond the Peak Oil Delusion: Two Scenarios for Oil Markets

Posted on 13 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Oil prices have declined substantially from the heady “peak oil delusion days” of the last decade. Now we are offered two separate narratives explaining why oil prices are likely to stay low: Demand depletion vs. splintered demand. The first [narrative] … Continue reading →

Posted in Crime, Energy, Oil Prices | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

Elon Musk Still Has One Good Idea: SpaceX

Posted on 12 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Elon the Dropout: Early Successes Elon Musk was born in South Africa, and moved to California via Canada and Pennsylvania. He had meant to achieve a PhD in energy physics at Stanford, but his plans changed when the world around … Continue reading →

Posted in Future, Green Quagmire, Space Future | Tagged , | 7 Comments

China vs. Russia: Race to Implosion

Posted on 10 May, 2016 by alfin2101

China and Russia on Track to Disintegrate? Which will collapse and disintegrate first? China, or Russia? “From what I can see, and my Chinese wife can see, China will probably soon implode. Just what the catalyst will be is uncertain… … Continue reading →

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Disruptive New Paradigms in Space Launch and Nuclear Power

Posted on 9 May, 2016 by alfin2101

A New Paradigm for Nuclear Technology Development What’s different this time is that there is a profound shift taking place from government-led, and funded, nuclear R&D to private sector-led efforts by people with strong entrepreneurial goals… These developers want to … Continue reading →

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How Stupid is Too Stupid?

Posted on 8 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Too Stupid for What? Consider that Russia wants to bring nuclear power plants to sub Saharan Africa. Given the crucial roles of maintenance and intelligent monitoring to nuclear plant safety, would building nuclear power plants in Africa be a good … Continue reading →

Posted in Africa, IQ, Nuclear Power | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

A Sense of Security is the Beginning of Disaster

Posted on 5 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Humans crave security. They will go to great lengths in an attempt to make themselves feel safe and secure. Unfortunately, there is no limit to potential risks. The ones we focus on are often the least likely to do us … Continue reading →

Posted in Doom, Environment, Everything You Think You Know Just Ain't So, Folly of Prediction, Groupthink, Peak Oil, Rebuilding Civilisation, Survival Prepping | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Energy Bridge: Cheap Oil & Gas for Next Few Decades

Posted on 4 May, 2016 by alfin2101

The Age of Cheap Oil & Gas Begins Scientific American: Another 40 million barrels per day of global oil production looms on the near horizon. Geopolitics will never be the same. A world of growing and geographically diversified oil supply … Continue reading →

Posted in Energy, Europe, Green Quagmire, Nuclear Power, Oil Prices | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Climate Apocalypse Cult: Panic, Damn You!

Posted on 1 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Conventional wisdom says you are more likely to die from catastrophic global warming human extinction than from an automobile crash. Climate apocalypse is the cult du jour for people with nothing important to worry about. And that category apparently encompasses … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Green Quagmire, Groupthink | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment