China and Russia on Track to Disintegrate?
Which will collapse and disintegrate first? China, or Russia?
“From what I can see, and my Chinese wife can see, China will probably soon implode.
Just what the catalyst will be is uncertain… For more than two decades, I have been telling people that the first thing China would do before trying to take Taiwan would be to take the Spratly Islands. If the world simply ignored that, then Taiwan would be next.
… The biggest problems in China right now are poisoned food, water, and air. Nobody trusts anybody, which is the reason why there is huge capital flight out of the country.
China has a national debt in excess of $28 trillion. But anybody knowing anything about Chinese accounting practices knows that number is probably just a very conservative number.
… People have been investing in houses only because that is the only relatively secure form of asset management. Yet home purchases are at best leases since the government can come in at any time and requisition the land for other purposes.
Construction quality of housing here is horrible. If [province name withheld] had a big quake, the dead would be in the millions. China would almost immediately collapse.
The education system wherein I work is horrible. People in the West look at high math and science scores, but they don’t realize that most of the students, like my son, cannot apply what they learn to similar math or science problems.
Students are completely unable and unwilling to ask questions. Professors and instructors don’t have offices, let alone office hours, so questions on content the students don’t understand are never answered. Of course, if a student fails a course, the teacher loses face, so every student passes.
__ Quoted by Peter Navarro in National Interest
China’s facade as a wise and strong power has fooled most idiots in western media, government, academia, foundations, and the non-governmental think tanks / lobbies / influence groups. These groups have the largest loudspeakers and can thus sway the larger crowds. But for those who can see beneath the facade, the reality of rotten infrastructure and the toxic miasma of life inside the Middle Kingdom is too noxious to ignore.
The physical map of Asia above provides a transitional view between the present map of Asia above, and the future map of Asia below. When China decides to move, it will move through the far eastern corridor, and through the Central Asian corridor. The ways are already being prepared.
Russia today is in a condition of latent anarchy, held in check by personalized and arbitrary dominance from the Kremlin.
We expect Moscow’s authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia… __Stratfor Decade Forecast 2015-2025
Russia is racing quickly alongside China, in the competition to collapse. Every decision made by President Putin in the last four years contributes to the shutting down of opportunity and independent thought inside Russia. Since 2014, Putin’s drastic swerve toward military conflict and nuclear brinksmanship have helped doom Russia’s economy to stagflation and isolation from the international investment so badly needed.
Russia has been unable, despite its efforts, to sufficiently step up trade and investment with China in its hydrocarbons, nuclear, and defense industries, among other things. To be sure, Russia has made several deals with China that, when implemented, could see oil and gas trade skyrocket. But the construction of two gas pipelines—the “Power of Siberia” and “Altai”—intended to bring gas from Siberia to parts of China have been postponed to the 2020s. To make matters worse for Moscow, low oil and gas prices have cast doubts over these projects’ profitability, and Russian energy companies, constrained by the Western sanctions regime, are also struggling to develop oil and gas fields in eastern Siberia. __ Russia’s Failed Pivot to China
Russia is heavily dependent upon China for capital investment, international commerce, technological exchange, military material, and political support on the world stage. Any diminution of China’s status would result in a considerable drop in Russia’s capacity to influence world events — short of intentionally triggering a large scale war.
More background: Coming Revolt of Russian Bureaucrats
Things are bad and growing worse for the heart and soul of Russia
Understanding How the Dominoes Will Likely Fall
Putin and the Kremlin have firm control over Moscow and most areas north of the Caucuses and west of the Urals. But rumbles of mutiny and secession are growing in the peripheral jurisdictions — often in some of the richest regions of Russia in terms of natural resources.
Similarly, a corrupt Beijing has a strong grip on most of the northern and mid-eastern regions. But areas of the south and west chafe under the harsh conditions of Xi’s new purgatorial, top-heavy scheme of dictatorship.
Both nations suffer from appreciable brain drain and capital flight. The nature of the aftermath — after collapse — depends greatly upon which of the hollow animal kingdoms (dragon vs. bear) collapses soonest.
Either way, the map seen below is likely to reflect the new reality more than the map at the top of this posting, in the aftermath of collapse.