The lowest TFR rate in 1970 was Finland at 1.8, but by 2014 Singapore had the lowest rate at just 0.8!
The highest rate in 1970 was Rwanda which had a TFR of 8.2. In 2014, Niger had the highest rate with 6.89 (Rwanda’s has fallen to 4.62).
… the world’s two most populous countries have both seen their TFR drop significantly between 1970 and 2014. India’s dropped from 5.5 to 2.4 a 56% decrease, while China’s dropped from 5.5 to 1.6 a 71% decrease and well below replacement. __ http://brilliantmaps.com/fertility-rates/
Europe is Being Hit Hard by Demographic Change
The European Union was supposed to be an economic superpower, but after seven years it is still struggling to recover from the global economic crisis. Economic growth is sluggish at best (and uneven, given the divide between a more prosperous north and a debt-burdened south). Adjusting for inflation, the gross domestic product of the 19 countries now sharing Europe’s common currency, the euro, was less in 2014 than it was in 2007. Widespread joblessness and diminishing opportunities confront an entire generation of young Europeans, especially in Spain, Italy, France and Greece. The economic malaise tinges everything: Young people resist marriage for lack of economic opportunity. __ http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/20/magazine/has-europe-reached-the-breaking-point.html?_r=0
Europe is experiencing low indigenous birthrates while being inundated by large numbers of uneducated and unassimilable migrants with a relatively high tendency toward violence. Europe’s economic policies place crippling burdens on the productive while rewarding the unproductive. Throw in the suicidal energy and industrial policies, and all signs point toward societal decline.
Many societies with unintelligent populations are growing rapidly, while societies with more intelligent populations are shrinking. This combination of increase in low IQ populations with an overall shrinkage of high IQ populations creates a dysgenic population trend. Over time, societies that were once productive and innovative will begin to look more like the nations of sub-Saharan Africa and the dysfunctional Muslim world.
Russia is a demographer’s wonderland, exhibiting enough signs of dynamic and often contradictory demographic change to delight any demographer’s heart. Keep in mind that Russia is a multi-ethnic empire, administered largely by ethnic Russians, but with significant populations of non-ethnic Russians occupying key parts of Russia’s rich heartlands.
… areas with a higher proportion of children are generally those also with a higher proportion of indigenous peoples (i.e. a lower proportion of ethnic Russians). This correlation is confirmed by the figures listed in the Wikipedia article on the demographics of Russia: ethnic Russians have the country’s second-lowest fertility rate. (Russia’s Jews have the lowest fertility figure of all ethnic groups.) As can be expected from the high birth rates in these three regions, Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Tuva rank at the top in the percentage of children, with about a third or more of their populations under the age of 17. In contrast, in most of European Russia (and a few regions in Siberia) children constitute less than 20% of the population, and in most oblasts in central Russia the figure is below 17%. Unsurprisingly, the lowest percentage of children is found in the two federal cities: 14.3% in Moscow and 14.4% in Saint Petersburg.
Another demographic problem affecting Russia — besides low birthrates, high death rates, high levels of suicide, alcoholism, illicit drug use, HIV, Hepatitis, TB etc. — is the steady outflow of talented Russians from Putin’s gulag.
Currently, political repression and a failing economy are contributing to a dramatic outflow of moderate, middle class Russians from the country, who are leaving in search of better prospects. This brain drain is bleeding Russia dry of its most educated and innovative citizens, such as young business whiz Pavel Durov, the creator of VK, Russia’s most popular social media network. Durov is only one of approximately 200,000 disillusioned young Russians who have moved away from Russia this year, and more are expected to follow. __ http://gucaravel.com/russias-new-demographic-crisis/
This brain drain — combined with an often sinister “womb drain” and the wide array of problems with public health and vital statistics — amounts to a cumulative crippling of Russia’s future potential. Russia’s educational system was already under collapse over a decade ago. Today’s Kremlin leadership is not looking to the future when making its corrupt and erratic policies and plans.
Poor economic prospects in much of Europe and Russia will inevitably impact future fertility and quality of life measures in those regions. A significant drop in skilled and intelligent working-age populations will likely lead to economic death spirals which will be difficult to reverse. China is another nation that is beginning to experience disruptive demographic change:
For the first time in at least three centuries—and maybe all recorded history—China will not be the world’s most populous nation. India overtakes it by 2022 at the latest, according to the U.N.’s most recent population projections, which were released late July.
The workforce—those aged 15 to 59—has already begun to decline. The peak year was 2011, according to Beijing’s official National Bureau of Statistics. There is concern that China will not be able to support its growing ranks of retirees—set to double to 20 percent of the population in 2035—because the pool of workers is contracting by three million a year. As Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics noted about the one-child policy, “They kept it going 15 years too long, disastrously.”
So the decline in the workforce concerns economists as well as demographers. __ Demographic Disaster in China
China has already become a toxic wasteland, however, and desperately needs new lands and territories with clean water, soil, and air to keep its current and near-term populations as healthy and productive as possible. Since Russia has the land but not the people — and is conveniently close by — Beijing naturally is looking to expand in that direction as events allow.
Demographics are destiny. If you do not show up, you cannot play the game. That is one of the most insistent lessons of global fertility and demographic change. A demographic takeover of the planet requires a population average IQ of no higher than 70 IQ points! Time favours the dysgenic trend.
Disruptive Technologies Will Allow the Creation of “Islands of Competence, Stability, and Prosperity”
More competent and intelligent populations are likely to generate sub-populations of strong, innovative, independent persons that cooperate in networked communities of a resilient and anti-fragile nature. It will become easier to build parallel infrastructure and supply lines for vital needs, and to fuel continued innovative development apart from dysgenic Idiocracies of decline.
Such communites will not be built upon racial, ethnic, or religious foundations, but rather upon a common philosophy of competent future-orientation, expansion, and abundance. Disruptive innovation combined with intelligence, executive function / strength of character, and independent vision free of mainstream groupthink, will lead to a new “diaspora” of Dangerous Children. The demographic nature of such a diaspora will be difficult for present day demographers to comprehend, much less predict.