Multiple Paths to Russia’s Decline

Russia’s decline extends through most of its infrastructure, from its demography to its schools, health system, roads, housing, electrical power grid, to its economy and financial infrastructure. Conditions have declined so far that Russian officials fear that something as small as a cryptocurrency might destroy Russia’s economy.

Paul Livadniy, the deputy director at the Federal Financial Monitoring Service of the Russian Federation, aka Rosfinmonitrong, has warned that the cryptocurrency industry represents a threat to the Russian economy and is capable of bringing about its destruction…. Livadniy compared cryptocurrencies to traditional currencies, reasoning why the former could bring about the downfall of the country’s economy. __ Cryptocoins News

Russia’s economy has already been badly weakened by the loss of foreign investment and failing access to advanced foreign technologies over the past 2 1/2 years of Putin’s shadow wars in Ukraine, Moldova, Syria, and elsewhere. With the coming of cryptocurrency and the loss of control over financial markets by the Russian government, another final blow to the cohesion of the restless Russian empire may fall.

As a sign of ongoing decline, Russia continues to bleed its “best and brightest” to more inviting locations outside the country.

The loss of highly skilled workers will hamper the Russian economy for years to come. Russia’s educational and health care systems will further decline. Innovative companies and projects will largely set up shop outside Russia’s borders, and private enterprise in the country will diminish substantially. Russia already lags woefully behind the world in average money directed toward research and development, but losing the people behind such efforts will accelerate the trend. As a result, Russians will continue to depend on state-run industries and energy revenue to stay afloat, making the whole country vulnerable to outside shocks, such as changes in oil prices.

… The wave of Russian emigrants comes as the ethnic Russian population is already in decline, and the Muslim population (both indigenous and immigrant) is climbing. Russia’s current population of 143 million is expected to decrease by 10 percent by 2030, mostly because of the shrinking ethnic Russian population due to a low number of births, poor health care and emigration. At the same time, Russia’s Muslim populations have been booming over the past decade. The Chechen population has risen by 5 percent, and the Dagestani population has increased by 13 percent.
__ https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/problem-russias-best-and-brightest

Pressure on Russians to emigrate will only grow, as more Russians are experiencing the shock of an abrupt downward adjustment in living conditions.

Russia desperately needs new investment, new industries, new technologies, and the educational and research infrastructure capable of backing up such ventures. Most of all, Russia needs the demographic foundation — and the economic and commercial freedoms along with it — to develop and implement disruptive innovation. But these things are now lost to mother Russia.

Russia is now primarily a global supplier of oil & gas, second-rate weapons and munitions, child pornography, and Siberian natural resources. To have a real future, Russia would need to become an altogether different type of country — and the empire no longer has the quality or quantity of population base that could make that possible.

Eastern Europe is Preparing for War with Russia

In what many are calling “the Putin effect,” countries across Eastern Europe, including even Belarus, nominally Russia’s closest ally, are now arming themselves even when they have to cut social welfare spending because, in the words of one commentator, “no one wants to be the next Ukraine.

This sacrifice makes them producers of security and not just consumers who rely on others, including NATO and the United States, whatever some Western politicians may say; and it is an indication of just how frightened they are that the Kremlin leader, however bogged down he may be in Ukraine, appears to them as a continuing existential threat. __ Preparing for Barbarians at the Gate

Ukraine prepares

But Eastern, Central, and Northern Europe will not have to go it alone against Putin’s increasingly desperate and crumbling empire. NATO is putting in a token appearance in the Baltics. Perhaps more importantly, China is investing in Poland, Finland, Ukraine, Belarus, and several other nations along Russia’s western and southern flanks.

China is Encircling Russia in an Economic and Military Pincer

China is devoting a great deal of attention to nations such as Belarus, which sits directly on Russia’s vulnerable western border. Ukraine is another neighbor of Russia that is boosting economic — and military industry — ties to China. Enhanced military cooperation between Finland and China completes the western flank of the encirclement.


Rapidly building relations between China and Central Asian nations bolster the southern line of encirclement, as does the rapid influx of Chinese and Chinese influence into the Russian Far East.

Like Russia, China is also caught on the horns of demographic decline and economic instability. But the dragon is at a higher level of demographic, economic, and technological development than the dying bear. China can afford to continue leveraging its economy to build its military, espionage, and cyber-war forces, with the prospect of taking over large parts of Russia’s Siberian resources in the not-too-distant-future.

China is Not Likely to Start the War, But It Plans to Be There at the Finish

China will not need to invade, Putin is already ceding significant control in piecemeal fashion, under the table. And China is the one international poker player that Putin will not be able to bluff.

When large-scale international conflict occurs, China aims to take greatest advantage in picking up the spoils, including much of Siberia.

Russia Cannot Go on As it Is

Russia’s population is forecast to almost halve within a generation as deaths from suicide and alcoholism escalate and the birthrate falls against a background of economic decline.

The number of Russians could shrink from 143.5 million to 80 million by 2050 unless the government takes urgent action, according to Yury Krupnov, the head of the Institute for Demography, Migration and Regional Development.

Low incomes even in regions close to Moscow plus widespread pessimism over the future meant that young people were reluctant to start families. __ http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4537989.ece

More:

Can Russia survive until May Day, 2017?

This week, there have been widespread reports that the Russian elite is preparing itself for Putin’s departure (ura.ru/articles/1036269096); and others are talking openly about the likelihood of a new Russian revolution by the time of the anniversary of the Bolshevik one in 1917 (activatica.org/blogs/view/id/2654/title/fermery-v-nizhegorodskoy-oblasti-zagovorili-o-revolyucii-i-maydane)….

… the situation in Russia is so bad that people there no longer appreciate horror movies which require a disjunction between day-to-day life and what is shown on the screen (rufabula.com/articles/2016/09/29/suck-my-machete). There is certainly evidence that things are getting worse: there is no money for food for poor children in the schools of many regions (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/290056/) or for food stamps or cards for the poor more generally (dsnews.ua/world/deneg-net-v-rossii-otlozhili-vvedenie-produktovyh-kartochek-30092016114800). The Accounting Chamber says that the entire social sector is degrading rapidly…

… Ever fewer Russians accept as true claims by Vladimir Putin and his regime that the economic crisis is easing, with more than 80 percent saying that Russia is mired in one and that they do not know when it will end …

… 40,000 pensioners have fled to China where they feel that their lives are a paradise compared to what they were in Russia. Tens of thousands more are planning to move that way in the dear future, a Moscow paper reports…

… The Kremlin got the constitutional majority it wanted in the Duma, but the cost of its heavy-handed falsifications [are] having some consequences it probably would have liked to avoid. Ever more experts are documenting how fraudulent the elections were and thus raising questions about how much support the regime really has…

… __ Source

Increasingly mutinous regions will cost Moscow in the future

Advertisements
This entry was posted in China, Economics, Russian Decline and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to Multiple Paths to Russia’s Decline

  1. INFOCAT says:

    Al Fin, why are you so interested in Russia? Might i inquire about your ethnic background?

    • alfin2101 says:

      Inquiries may always be made. But it is best for them to be relevant and to the point. Such inquiries are more likely to receive a proper response.

      • INFOCAT says:

        The Question was certainly to the point. You seem obsessed with Russia. There surely is a reason for it and in most cases it is based on ethnicity. Either you are from an ethnicity with a long lasting grudge against Russia (Jews, Ukranians, Poles). Or you are an expat Russian frustrated about corruption in Russia. But that seems highly unlikely with the way you write. You write like someone with an ethnic grudge and not just a person that is intellectually interested in the country. So, what is your ethnic background?

        • alfin2101 says:

          Actually, it is you who seem to be obsessed with anyone who has an alternative view of Russia to that which you yourself hold. Such a rigid and hostile viewpoint of the world will not serve you well in a free environment such as those outside of dictatorships. I am not saying that you are a paid Kremlin troll, but you certainly display a great difficulty in sharing the world with people who think differently from yourself.

          All the same, cheers!

      • Abelard Lindsey says:

        Infocat, give it up. I’ve asked our esteemed host the same question and have received the same response as you. There’s no point to belaboring it any further.

        I suspect his information and comments about Russia are spot on, and its not what you’re going to get from the usual sources.

        • INFOCAT says:

          I’ve written more comments but he’s blocking me it seems. Just for asking his intentions and possible motives.

          Admin: Your comments are being moderated based upon your immediate and reflexive, silly and irrelevant conjecture in response to a deflected probe. Try to stay on topic and on point. Support your arguments with more than gut feelings, which so far have proven far off the mark.

          • Abelard Lindsey says:

            The reason why I think our host is correct about the situation in Russia is it reflects what I see from the outside world.

            I used to be in something called the “L-5 Society” when I was young in the 80’s. When the Soviet Union collapsed, my friends and I expected that a lot of space technology developed would be commercialized. I also expected that the various design bureaus (Tupolev, Illyushin, etc.) would come together and make new airliners to give Boeing and Airbus a run for their money. I even thought they might mass produce a decent car for the international market as well as a lot of process machinery as well.

            None of this has happened. Russia has largely failed to develop any export industries in the 25 years since the demise of the Soviet Union (very much unlike China). This alone tells me that not all is well in Russia.

          • alfin2101 says:

            Russia is dying of a broken heart: http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2014/09/02/dying-russians/

            The startling book that earned the 2015 Nobel Prize in literature illustrates the problem in copious detail: http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/laureates/2015/

            More insight

            More:

            Browder’s graphic portrait of the Russian government as a criminal enterprise wielding all the power of the state illuminates his personal transformation from financier to human rights activist, campaigning for justice for his late lawyer and friend. With fraud, bribery, corruption and torture exposed at every turn, Red Notice is a shocking but true political roller-coaster that plays out in the highest echelons of Western power. __ Red Notice

Comments are closed.