People who truly love a country will face up to its problems, rather than turning their backs and denying the fatal trends that eat away at a nation’s heart. Demographic decline affects all of the developed world, including Europe, the Anglosphere, East Asia, and Russia. Most of these nations have pulled back from expansionary geopolitical ambitions, but not all.
When a nation tries to extend its power and territory at the same time that its demographic and economic situations are deteriorating, the stress of this internal contradiction is felt throughout the land. If this nation also nominally controls almost half the world’s arsenal of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles, internal stresses can explode outward very rapidly.
“Those who say that the demographic crisis… will end are charlatans … “One has to be a total idiot to expect the demographic crisis in Russia to end under such circumstances.
__ Pravda (see below)
Basic Demographic Picture
…Russia is still looking for ways to reverse its negative demographic trend. The number of women of childbearing age is dropping, the elderly constitute a growing percentage of the population, the Health Ministry predicts a rising mortality rate through 2020, and government policies continue to fall short in their attempts to save the Russian population from its downward spiral… the government is cutting spending on healthcare and sports, both of which have a direct impact on the mortality rate of the working population. Russia lags especially far behind developed countries in these areas. __ Moscow Times – Pavel Aptekar
Birthrates are higher in regions containing larger numbers of muslims and Central Asian immigrants. These incoming persons are prolific enough to push up Russian birth rate statistics marginally, but can do nothing to improve the demographic future of “ethnic Russians,” who are the ones in danger of extinction.
“Those who say that the demographic crisis in Russia will end are charlatans. They are no experts at all. In reality, the age structure in Russia will deteriorate further in 2017 and then till 2020. The number of potential parents will halve in comparison with their amount 10-15 years ago.
“One has to be a total idiot to expect the demographic crisis in Russia to end under such circumstances. __ Demographer Igor Beloborodov in Pravda
It is important to the Kremlin to drown out any negative news which reflects badly on the leadership. The best demographic information available projects a continuing downward demographic trend for ethnic Russians — low births, high deaths. Just as in Europe and the Anglosphere, the brightest women of highest achievement choose not to have children. Russia’s future will reflect this dearth of brighter ethnic Russians in the classroom, in the workforce, in the research labs, and in the military.
Russia’s population is today in major decline — with potentially catastrophic consequences for the country and its place in the world… The results could be nothing short of ruinous. The Russian government has attempted to project the image of revived greatness to the world. But Russia’s declining demographic health suggests that domestic realities will sooner or later serve to undermine the Kremlin’s global ambitions. __ Mortality, Abortion, Emigration
Russia will be particularly hard-hit by demographic shrinkage, since Russia is caught in the middle of an expansionist, neo-imperial phase. Demographic shrinkage is accompanied by economic shrinkage, a significant drop in innovation, and an ominous rise in corruption. The best people are exiting the country, and Russian women are increasingly refusing to have children with the low quality of men who remain.
According to the Brookings Institution, “Russian economic policy will face the very serious threat rapid depopulation in the coming decades,” with the likelihood of immigration failing to make up for the discrepancies due to an overtly anti-immigration and nationalist fervour sweeping the country in recent years. Furthermore, immigration concentrates from former CIS countries whose migrants are often poorly educated and lack the skills for a modern economy.
Fuelling the rapid decline in the country’s work force revolves around Russia’s refusal to acknowledge the basic scientific conclusions on HIV/AIDS, drug and alcohol addiction, and the rise in pollution-related deaths. Russia has an estimated 1.5 million people with HIV/AIDS out of a population of only 140 million. Recent surveys from the NGO Phoenix Plus found that the HIV rate among homosexual men has increased from 12% in 2012 to 22% percent in 2015 – a dramatic increase that is on par with Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of prevalence.
Russia is fast approaching an inflection point: its current trajectory is forcing itself to come to terms with growing internal socio-economic factors that could be antithesis to growth and prosperity. __ http://globalriskinsights.com/2017/01/russia-internal-issues/
Ethnic Russians are abandoning the peripheral regions, cities, and villages, and congregating closer to the central core of Moscow and St. Petersburg. But most of Russia’s wealth still resides in Siberia, the Far East, and along the vast steppe. As fewer and fewer ethnic Russians remain to guard and seize this wealth from non-Russians, the future of the Russian state grows dimmer.
Russia is in fact an unstable power, subject to a further dismantling far beyond the loss of republics and territories that occurred in the 1991 collapse of the USSR.
Action begets reaction. Nations are beginning to react to Russia’s neo-imperialism — from Poland, from Ukraine, from a range of Russian frenemies from China to Turkey to Iran, and from powerful interests across Europe, East Asia, and the Anglosphere — who are watching closely and waiting for the inevitable props to begin falling.