Both the Numbers and the Types of Emigrants are Changing
… an enormous 32 percent of Russians aged 18-24 are ready to move abroad, according to the Levada Center survey. __ Artemy Troitsky
You won’t hear about this from mainstream media or official Kremlin sources — and especially not from the troll propagandists working from St. Petersburg who infest western internet sites. But Russia’s demographic crisis is only getting worse with time.
As a rule, estimates place the number of emigrants between 200,000 to 500,000 annually. The State Statistics Service counted 350,000 in 2015, which is 10 times more than in 2010.
… [we are now seeing] successful and accomplished professionals leading the exodus, despite the fact that many will lose their economic and social status by starting again abroad. This might seem strange, but by way of explanation, I can cite myself as an example. __ MoscowTimes
If 350,000 elites were leaving in 2015 — and the overall situation has only grown worse since then — Russia is staring into the barrel of a full-blown skills and expertise crisis.
Different emigrants expressed different reasons for their decisions to join the exodus of the elites:
… the 42 percent of Russians who had considered emigrating were primarily attracted by better living conditions abroad. Other than the ecological situation in Russia, I had been happy with my life here.
At 41 percent, the second most common factor cited by the survey was the “unstable economic situation in Russia.” Although I lost my job for political reasons, many thousands of professionals in healthcare and education lost theirs through mass layoffs, or have been forced to leave, unable to survive on their meager salaries.
In third place was the desire to “provide a decent future” for their children, with 28 percent of respondents citing this reason. This is just like us.
Most interesting was the fourth reason, the 17 percent who expressed concerns over “the lack of protection from arbitrary abuse from the authorities.”
… even more important is the intangible and yet increasingly oppressive sense of hopelessness. The belief that Russia has hit a dead end and that change under the current system is impossible. __ A Suitcase State of Mind
Russia’s working age population is collapsing at the same time that the number of women of child-bearing age are dropping through the floor. The HIV crisis among the young is growing exponentially, and those who can get out are either doing so or making plans that will make it easier to get out when the time comes.
15 percent of all Russians are “packed and ready to go” at any time. Of those, 3 percent — or 4 million Russians — have definite plans to emigrate. The remaining 12 percent say they will “probably” leave the country.
This is in keeping with the jaw-dropping forecast made by former Federal Migration Service Deputy Director and current 21st Century Migration Foundation Chairman Vyacheslav Postavnin who said that up to 15 million Russians are expected to move out of the country in the coming years. __ Moscow Times
Putin’s Minions Put On a Good Show
Putin’s KGB training has served him well in the putting up of a good Potemkin front. The Kremlin’s propaganda effort is second to none, and some efforts to foment discord in the west are achieving excellent results , at least in western universities and cities. The Kremlin is blending its efforts alongside those of more clearly radical groups, making them more difficult to tease out from communist, socialist, Maoist, and other insurrectionist agencies. In the long run, though, such efforts to destabilise western societies and to spread disinformation, are likely to backfire.
Even Russia’s efforts to bolster the nuclear launch abilities of the North Korean terror state are likely to blow back onto the declining bear.
Already, most people who browse the net are getting tired of all the Moscow-facilitated troublemakers, as well as all the “Baghdad Bobs” running around claiming that all is well with the decrepit Eurasian dictatorship. Anyone who takes the trouble to inform himself can easily see through the fogscreens.
China Stands Ready to Move When the Time Comes
The Russian economy is growing ever more dependent upon Chinese trade and investment. But all of that comes at a steep cost, and when the piper comes to call, Mr. Putin may find himself at an embarrassing loss of face.
Russia’s armed forces are slowly but surely filling up with Muslims, who have a somewhat different viewpoint of Russian history and the great Russian Empire than the shrinking numbers of ethnic Russians whom they are replacing. China may feel it has no choice but to take the reins, rather than risk all that nuclear weaponry falling into Muslim hands.
Time is not on Russia’s side.