Understanding Why Birthrates are Dropping
Russia is undergoing a significant decline in the number of women of child-bearing years. As a result, we are starting to see a decline in birthrates which is likely to continue for decades to come.
The country’s state statistics agency Rosstat registered 203,400 fewer births in 2017 compared to 2016, a drop of 10.7 percent, according to data published Monday. This marks the lowest birth rate since 2007 when 1.6 million births were recorded.
Despite a fall in the number of deaths by since last year, the population declined by 134,400 people in 2017. A year prior, Russia’s population grew by 5,300 people.
“The number of potential mothers is small, so the number of births is also falling,” the RBC business portal cited social analysis expert Ramilya Khasanova of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).
Khasanova said birth rates would continue to fall in the next 15 years because the majority of women of child-bearing age were born in the 1990s, a period of extremely low birth rates. __ Moscow Times
“Russia’s population will most likely decline in the coming decades, perhaps reaching an eventual size in 2100 that’s similar to its 1950 level of around 100 million,”
To make matters worse, more Russian women are choosing not to have children at all. Those who do decide to bear children are now waiting an average of 5 years later before having their first child.
Russian women who have children at all are giving birth to their first baby at 26.1 years, five years more than the 20.9 years at which they gave birth in 1995-1999, and they are increasing the interval between the first and second child from three years two decades ago to 5.6 years now, according to a Rosstat study reported today by Izvestiya.
… Russian women want fewer children or none at all. ___ Russian language story in https://iz.ru/696411/nataliia-berishvili/rossiianki-otlozhili-materinstvo
Discussed in English by WOE2
This shift toward having children later or not at all and having smaller families is common to many countries. In Russia, it is especially significant because it imposes severe constraints on the Kremlin’s demographic policies which are based almost exclusively on trying to boost fertility rather than addressing the super-high mortality rates among working-age males.
Russian Men Being Neglected
As in many other societies, men in Russia are left in the bear pit to fight it out to the death. As a result, male mortality in Russia ranks among the worst of third world nations. De facto slavery is still common in Russia for men as well as for women.
In Moscow’s push for increasing birthrates, fathers have been the neglected figures; and partially as a result, experts say, the country is suffering from “a crisis of fatherhood” in which men no longer know what their roles should be (vz.ru/society/2017/12/26/900172.html). Meanwhile, Chinese men are coming to Russia in ever larger numbers to acquire Russian wives, driving up the new field of “marriage tourism” in Beijing (centrasia.ru/news.php?st=1515053040 and ura.news/news/1052318867).
__ WOE2 Baker’s Dozen
There are fewer Russian women of child-bearing age, and many of those are choosing to forego having children altogether. More, a growing number of Russian women are choosing to marry Chinese men, or to migrate to Europe or the Anglosphere to try their luck in fairer lands. To top it off, a growing number of women in Russia are giving birth to non-Russian ethnicities. Every day Russia shrinks in multiple ways.
Russia’s Perfect Demographic Storm
We have known for several years that the current decline in births would occur — it was inevitable — and that it would continue for a significant period of time.
Thanks to Putin’s economically ruinous wars and other policies, Russia will not have the time it needs to recover its equilibrium. The corrupt and ailing bear feeds on itself, while the dragon to the south considers the best time to strike.