Economy Before Military is a Better Rule to Follow
Smarter rulers would have made certain of their economies before they put their nations in a military posture against the rest of the world.
Scarcely a day goes by without hearing more about some omnipotent new weapon produced by Chinese armorers. Amazing new planes, rockets, ships, submarines, helicopters, hypersonic destructors, unbeatable drones and robots, and artificial intelligences fit to overcome all enemies. But who will pay for all of this vapourware and whatever real products eventually appear?
… too many Chinese banks are, in practice, bankrupt even though on paper they are solvent. A major problem is the huge quantity of unsold housing and business properties. The government looked into this and found the situation was worse than anyone had imagined… A growing number of Chinese don’t believe their government can handle this mess and that results in hundreds of billion dollars’ worth of Chinese currency trying to get converted to more trusted foreign currencies (like the dollar, euro and yen). __ https://strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20181109.aspx
Update: China medley of economic woes
Lately, Everything in China is Built on Debt
The Chinese economy expanded rapidly in the years after the global financial crisis thanks to repeated debt binges.
“China’s growth has been highly credit intensive,” said Gerard Burg, Sydney-based senior economist at National Australia Bank. The total amount of debt in the Chinese financial system is now several times the size of the entire economy.
… A rapidly falling yuan could become a vicious cycle, according to Manu Bhaskaran, the founder of Singapore-based research firm Centennial Asia.
“There could be a huge capital outflow and that could feed on itself,” he said. __ https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/09/economy/china-economy-risks/index.html
China’s real estate market is beginning to stagnate, removing one of the few remaining safe investments for Chinese workers. 22% of apartments sit vacant, and since Chinese buildings tend to age far more quickly than those of other nations, the actual value of these properties is silently depreciating.
US trade tariffs are scheduled to ramp up steeply at the end of this year, which threatens to hobble an already slowing Chinese economy. If the Chinese economy hits the skids, the rest of the emerging world will feel crippling pain. Many western corporations that unwisely chose to stake their futures on China-based production would also likely be struck hard across the bottom line.
These are the days for reading the tea leaves and acting accordingly. Trump has not been exactly coy about his demands for China to begin to play by international trade rules or else. Any western chief executive who has failed to understand how serious the leader of the free world is about trade equity — after all this time and straight talk — such chief corporate executives should probably have their heads separated from their shoulders, figuratively speaking of course.
Cheating, Stealing, Pirating, Poisoning
China is the chief rogue of rogue nations, using much of its ill-gotten gains to attempt to build a world-dominating armory of weapons and destructive technologies.
The US uses its military might to keep sea lanes and other trade routes open for business — as well as for humanitarian missions in severe disasters. China would use its world-dominant military to exact tribute and obedience from its minions, if uncontested on the world stage.
Consider the nations that the US pacified, liberated, and conquered in the past 100 years: Germany, Japan, South Korea, France, Italy, etc. etc. All of these nations are self-determining and more or less prosperous. Then look at the nations China has conquered or taken over recently: Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong. These suffer deeply from Chinese oppression and often violence. Partners in the Belt and Road initiative are beginning to feel like conquered minions themselves.
The “Bloody Harvest” of today’s China — no matter how horrific it is — will seem like nothing compared with the bloody harvest China will prepare for anyone who fails to pay tribute and obeisance to the dragon. And you have been paying for all of these preparations, unwittingly, perhaps while also admiring China and investing in China-based entities.
The best way to curtail such a future of global slavery is to cut the cheating economic legs out from under the rogue dragon, and force the nation to obey international rules. The mainstream press and many large corporations, foundations, and other social institutions stand in support of China — and thus in support of a dominant Chinese future.
Watch closely as the various risks and opportunities weave, wax, and wane. Make provisions for the different likeliest futures, make yourselves as Dangerous as possible, and work for a better future capable of slipping through the gaps.
Trade integrity must be enforced, regardless of what the talking heads on CNN, Al Jazeera, RT, or Sky News tell you. The alternative is to allow an impending horror that you will never be able to explain to your grandchildren.