Great Human Die-Off: How Low Must Average IQ Go?

Average Human IQ is in Decline Worldwide

It takes a lot of smart people to run a modern, high technology national infrastructure. This is why you cannot count on 24 hour electricity from the power grid in Africa, the middle east, or the rest of the third world. There is simply not enough brainpower in most third world regions to keep the critical infrastructures online all the time.

Population Decline in Advanced World

Smarter and better educated people are having fewer children, relative to the dumber and less educated. This is true both within countries, and when comparing different countries with disparate population IQ averages. For the future, that is bad news for critical infrastructures and national “carrying capacity” of future societies.

It seems that the way that we as humans evolved has now switched over to allow the people who can breed the most with each other are the most fit to survive. __ Brendan Baker Hartford.edu

[See K vs R selection]

Because of the importation of modern vaccines, antibiotics, surgery, sanitation and other advances from the first world, people in the third world are now enabled to procreate at high rates, reasonably expecting most of their progeny to survive. This high level of survival is new, and almost entirely due to the contributions from outside infrastructures maintained by high IQ outsiders. But these newly surviving 3rd world progeny are themselves unable to maintain the infrastructures that make their survival possible on their own. As each new incompetent generation piles atop pre-existing incompetent generations, more and more outside help will be required to sustain them.

But the Helpers are Dying Out

Unfortunately, human populations in the high IQ developed world are in declineperhaps terminal decline, if ideological leftists have their way. When outside help stops coming in to the third world, the great dieoff will begin.

Animated Decline of Global Average IQ

Observe the projected decline in human IQ over time:

Animation source: https://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/IQ/1950-2050/

The modern way of life in advanced countries depends closely upon the number of intelligent persons available to maintain and improve their complex infrastructures. If average human IQ drops within traditionally high-IQ nations, the number of intelligent “enablers of infrastructure” will tend to decline — and more frequent breakdowns of infrastructure will occur.

Some of the mechanisms underlying the ongoing decline in average IQ scores can be studied by reading the book Dysgenics, by Richard Lynn. The book is available free for download at the link above. IQ is up to 80% heritable, suggesting that those humans who breed most have the greatest affect on average human IQs of future generations.

The great leaps forward in science and technology that the world has seen over the past few centuries, cannot continue if smarter people stop having babies.

Fertility Rate (# of children per woman of childbearing age)

The Lynn-Flynn Effect is Now Reversing

At least partially due to immigration from the third world (avg. IQ ~ 80) average IQ scores across Europe and the Anglosphere have been dropping over the past two decades. The effect of IQ decline from dysgenic immigration and dysgenic breeding among citizens will exhibit an exponential effect — very small at first, then increasing rapidly over time.

High Fertility, Low IQ : The Dysgenic Future
IQ by Nation _ Wikipedia

… with the ever-rising population of the earth… the average I.Q. will undoubtly continue to fall. It seems that the way that we as humans evolved has now switched over to allow the people who can breed the most with each other are the most fit to survive. It has been proven that people with similar I.Q. scores are more likely to breed with each other. So their offspring will have a similar I.Q. to their parents. So if the parents had an I.Q. of 75 their child is more likely to have a similar I.Q. to them. So its assumed that if the worlds population continues to grow at the rate its going that the average I.Q. by the year 2050 will be an 86.32 which is almost a ten point drop from 1950. __ Brendan Baker

Mean IQ of US college graduates has dropped almost 1 SD over 50 years

Mean IQ of US Marine Corps officers dropped 8 points in 34 years

The graph below provides meager reassurance regarding falling birthrates with rising female educational levels. Source


The anti-natal rhetoric in universities is becoming more widespread and vitriolic. Young women are strongly influenced by friends and perceived cultural norms when deciding whether to have children. That is bad news for the future of childbirth among future cohorts of female university graduates, since the group consensus among the college educated is coalescing around the “anti-natal” viewpoint.

The reluctance of first-world young women to procreate will indirectly lead to a significant cascading third world population die-off within a very few generations. The extent to which this “third world dieoff” is paralleled inside the first world will depend upon the levels of third world immigration into the advanced world, which is to take place over the next 20 to 40 years.

Plan for this Phenomenon

Some parts of the first world will suffer more from third world immigration, than others. Just a bit of snooping around should help you decide which zones will be safer into the future, than others. Hint: Sanctuary cities are likely to collapse soonest in a crisis.

Include all critical infrastructures on your checklist. You may be able to compensate for specific weaknesses in your future local infrastructure, using advanced skills and advanced technologies which you yourself are able to maintain. But keep those things to yourself.

HFTB. PFTW. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

Note: Population levels in many advanced “western cultural” nations are already beginning to decline. Religion is in decline in the west — the same religion which drove much of the impulse to provide generous assistance to the low IQ third world. So both the number of potential helpers and the root inclination to help are in decline.

Mass urbanisation is taking place in the third world, with the growth of third world “mega-cities” which will require ever more advanced infrastructures just to keep up with population growth. This urbanisation makes a massive dieoff more likely for multiple reasons, since proximity breeds infectious disease, and since more people of low IQ require more outsiders with high IQ to power their growing infrastructures. If the goose that lays the golden eggs — generous soft-touch westerners — happen to shrink in numbers while also losing the will to assist as well as political control in their own countries, the prognosis for massive concentrations of third world peoples is bleak.

Time frame: 20 to 40 years.
Solution: Drastically scale back third world immigration and direct assistance to the third world. Emphasise in-country training at appropriate technology levels. Do not encourage third world governments to invest in unreliable wastes of money such as grid-solar or grid-wind energy junk-monstrosities. Focus on agricultural training appropriate for the locale, and local micro-grids. Discourage the further development of mega-cities and centralisation of power in the third world. Work within tribal and clan structures as far as possible to avoid tearing the basic structure of third world societies to shreds.

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6 Responses to Great Human Die-Off: How Low Must Average IQ Go?

  1. Roger says:

    It’s a consequence of the development of technology + cultural change making the world safe. A species naturally degenerates in the absence of adversity. Funny how people think it will be climate change or AI bots that will end civilization but in fact it will be low average IQs that will cause it.

    • alfin2101 says:

      Perhaps. It is certainly ironic that as the average human grows stupider, the average computer is growing much more capable and more extensively inter-linked with other technologies.

      Download Lynn’s book “Dysgenics” from archive.org. The mechanisms of decline are simple and straightforward, but some of the political enablers of the process are hiding in plain sight.

      Political correctness and postmodern multiculturalism are driving several of the dysgenic processes plaguing modern Europe and the Anglosphere. Simply trace them to their source, then follow the trail of destruction outward.

  2. A.B. Prosper says:

    The lack of self awareness on the part of the elite is not a surprise but seriously, every single piece of A.I. , computer, automation or robotics research is a basically a nail in the human coffin

    Purposeless people without a future and little chance of decent stable job are not going to have babies. There is no reason for them to do so and as the spell of religion has worn off you are going to find it more difficult to get smart people to act against their self interest as well

    The irony that machines meant to make living less costly now make it impossible is not lost on me of course but if we want a future we’ll need to regulate tech and its uses. And no, you can’t do the basic income thing. People need work an d purpose.

    Optionally we can wait a couple of centuries

    Obviously fertility stats don’t work this way but in the time from say the war of 1812 till now, the vast majority of the population will be Amish with a smattering of Evangelicals , L.D.S and Orthodox functioning a a much lower tech level do to resource depletion if the Catabolic Collapse theory is true,

    Maybe if we get lucky it will hold together long enough for serious life extension, I might enjoy the brave new old world but again I always wanted to be Milo Morai

  3. Re. AI, I wonder to what extent it can help compensate for lower IQ? For example, can a barefoot doctor of IQ 100, with a capable AI assistant, provide a similar level of care to a university trained doctor of IQ 115 who doesn’t have such an assistant?

    What’s the minimum IQ to be able to effectively work with an AI?

    • alfin2101 says:

      For a person to be reliably supervised by a machine intelligence, he would need to be able to perform the required range of procedures for his particular “specialty.” Intelligent machines could reliably oversee any prescriptions (side effects, interactions, etc.) and lab, x-ray, most physical therapy . . .

      Supervising machine intelligences would have to be able to talk at the level of the remote practitioner, and would need access to each supervised practitioner’s educational and practice records to compensate for individual weaknesses with additional training and closer supervision.

      I was always told that you could teach a monkey to do surgery, but that it requires a bright and knowledgeable surgeon to know when to cut and how to handle the complications. The most difficult thing about medicine is integrating all the different levels of knowledge (including adjusting what you may have read 2 days ago with something you heard 20 years ago) and applying all of that to a unique person whose body does not care what any textbook or journal article may say.

      • alfin2101 says:

        A simpler answer to your question: For care of most common diseases, a machine intelligence capable of supervising remote “barefoot practitioners” would be sufficient, as long as adequate supplies of drugs, vaccines, sterile dressings, diagnostic equipment, etc. are provided.

        But it is not clear that machines can detect more subtle signs of unusual illnesses which may only be accessible to the subconscious of experienced, intelligent, and conscientious human practitioners. Sometimes yes, and probably sometimes no.

        Optimally, skilled and intelligent human practitioners would provide backup for the machines, in case an illness does not respond to machine prescribed treatments. Distinctly different sorts of intelligences are necessary to confront different sorts of problems. Sometimes an individual human can provide enough variety of thought to suffice. Better machine intelligence might likewise provide a range of “cognitive” approaches to a problem.

        But we do not really know what machine intelligences will be capable of, and we do not know what will be required to maintain such machines at their optimum. Everything breaks down in its own way, and in the case of dysgenic breakdown of third world societies, I suspect that in the long run the first world — with or without intelligent machines — will not be able to provide adequate support to keep the national boundaries intact or the megacities from breaking down in a very ugly way.

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