Chinese Alchemy Symbolic of National Transformation?
Chinese scientists achieved a feat of modern alchemy by transforming small quantities of copper into bacteria-sized grains of metal with catalytic properties similar to those of gold. This process may eventually produce enough “transformed copper” catalyst to enable more economical industrial processes in some areas of industry.
Gold Bullion
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On a Larger Scale, China Needs an Economic Miracle
China is facing a bleak new year, as the bite of US tariffs begins to eat away at industrial profits that have already begun to deteriorate. At the same time, the critical China real estate market is showing signs of decay and pre-collapse.
China is not the economic superpower that most westerners assume. It is particularly unprepared for any trade conflict with importing powers such as North America or Europe.
China has been brazen in using access to its enormous domestic market as a means to bully other countries and firms. Its aggressive trade practices, from theft of intellectual property to its heavy use of industrial subsidies, undercut faith in a rules-based economic order. Meanwhile, it has become more assertive on the world stage, using a combination of hard and soft power to build an expanding sphere of influence.
… The pace of Chinese economic growth has fallen by more than half since 2007 and has become increasingly dependent on unsustainable growth in debt. The demographic picture, too, looks forbidding. China’s working-age population is declining and expected to fall by roughly 25 million people by 2030. And although lots of countries have suffered from anemic growth in productivity over the past decade, productivity in China appears to be declining and shows few signs of reviving.
Falling productivity, in particular, reflects serious structural weaknesses in the Chinese economy. Economies can boost growth for a while by pushing more workers into the labor force or investing in factories and equipment. But long-run growth is possible only by coming up with new, better ways to use capital and labor.
China is running out of room to borrow well-established technologies and techniques from countries that have already industrialized.
__ WaPo
China has one important trick up its sleeve — the debt-slave imperialism of the One Belt One Road scheme. China has already seized a large port in Sri Lanka in a “development loan default” scheme. Now it has done the same in Kenya — and is lining up to do the same in several indebted nations across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
By seizing critical real estate from weak and impoverished third world nations around the world, China obtains forward-placed military bases almost “for free.” Unfortunately for China, the nation is in a race against time to stabilise its economic base and domestic tranquility before all sh-t hits the fan, and national foundations start cracking and crumbling.
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China still has a command economy, and problems that lead to recession/depression in capitalist countries have much less effect, and might even be prohibited by fiat.
The “size” of the Chinese economy depends on whether you cite nominal GDP or PPP GDP. The latter is always a better indicator. And regardless of which you prefer, in the end the Chinese have the modern factories and the skilled industrial workforce, and we have Macdonalds and Auto Title Loan.
I’m much more dubious about the future of the US and its stock market than I am about China. 1,000 point swings in a single session, or net on a day, indicate severe instabilities and portend a very large crash.
Yes, you’ve told us the same things many times.
Nevertheless, your arguments remain invalid for so long as your “factual” claims remain blatantly false.
The USSR was a command economy, and was able to paper over its economic problems up to the point that its people had suffered enough. The same will happen in China. It is not that the economy is unaffected by massive imbalances and misallocated resources. It is that the people must carry the bloody mistakes of their leaders until their backs break or their wills rebel.
As for “PPP GDP,” it is a fantasy model made to order depending upon the results which are required. Just like most models in government. It is almost entirely subjective in its construction.
China’s modern factories are not so modern or functional as the dictatorship wants you to think. China’s industries have been taking out loans to pay interest on previous loans for years now, and the problem worsens. It goes on because party officials are too heavily invested in the SOE boondoggle to let them fail.
US stock markets are naturally volatile during times when the government administration is at war with itself, and half the legislature is at war with the administration. When the Fed is at war with the President and 95% of the media is at war with the President, volatility is the new normal. Only economically untrained minds become too worried at times like this. Debt, not this two-bit volatility, is the threat.
Volatility is not the same thing as instability, and any student of chaos theory will understand that absence of volatility is often the first sign of impending collapse in a dynamic system.