Loss of American Market a Heavy Blow to China

Loss of the American export market would be a heavy blow to China, as would the continued reduction of the value of its currency. Chinese manufacturing, much of which migrated to it from Japan via South Korea, is already moving on to Vietnam, India, and Mexico (now America’s biggest trading partner).

The booming American economy that defies all the prayerful warnings and expectations of President Trump’s enemies can steadily eliminate Chinese imports and compensate the agricultural sector that sells to China …

The United States is finally expanding its sphere of substantial economic integration to Mexico (and moving to regularize the demographic flow on its southern border) and is in preliminary economic discussions with the new Brazilian government, and provisionally with post-Brexit Great Britain.

Such a grouping, including Canada, would have a population of 750 million people and a GDP of $30 trillion, with room to expand in Latin America and Australasia as conditions recommend, and to remove the potential Chinese advantage of a comparatively immense population. It would dwarf both China and a truncated, post-Brexit European Union.

This is intelligent grand strategy. ___ https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trump-plays-the-long-game-on-china/90789/

Paleoconservative Patrick Buchanan weighs in on China


Actions of Chinese saboteurs?

China’s neighbors are US President Trump’s biggest fans. “…Vietnam, India, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia… are a ready group of important states to resurrect a refined containment policy slightly modeled on the North Atlantic alliance but with more emphasis on economic issues. More

The Trump administration’s trade war has caught politically challenged China in an awkward economic moment. China’s economy no longer roars. Economic growth has stalled. __ China a Brittle Police State

As the world turns an increasingly jaundiced eye toward China’s dealings with near-overseas Chinese in Hong Kong and Taiwan, the communist leadership in Beijing are finding that they have bigger problems on their hands. And if they cannot solve these problems, China will not be the only country to suffer:

Global economy at risk of severe shock from China slump

Both Hong Kong and Taiwan are significantly more competitive than China, according to the 2018 Global Competitiveness Index from the World Economic Forum. That is because in China there is only one actual institution — the Communist Party of China — which makes its economic decisions on a command basis which is far too arbitrary for a healthy economic future. Particularly in a world where China’s working population is shrinking and where having close relationships with the Chinese Communist Party can be increasingly hazardous to one’s health.

Note how competitive Singapore is in the world rankings below. Communist China can only dream of achieving such a ranking, but a non-communist non-totalitarian China might actually achieve it.

Show: All Economies

Info
Rank / 140
Country / Economy
Score
0-100 (best)
1
85.6
2
83.5
3
82.8
4
82.6
5
82.5
6
82.4
7
82.3
8
82.0
9
81.7
10
80.6
11
80.3
12
79.9
13
79.3
14
78.9
15
78.8
16
78.2
17
78.0
18
77.5
19
76.6
20
76.6
21
76.6
22
76.3
23
75.7
24
74.5
25
74.4
26
74.2
27
73.4
28
72.6
29
71.2
30
71.0
31
70.8
32
70.8
33
70.3
34
70.2
35
69.6
36
68.8
37
68.2
38
67.5
39
67.5
40
67.1
41
66.8
42
66.2
43
65.6
44
65.6
45
64.9
46
64.6
47
64.4
48
64.3
49
63.7
50
63.6
51
63.6
52
63.5
53
62.7
54
62.1
55
62.1
56
62.1
57
62.1
58
62.0
59
61.8
60
61.6
61
61.6
62
61.4
63
61.3
64
61.0
65
60.9
66
60.9
67
60.8
68
60.1
69
60.0
70
59.9
71
59.6
72
59.5
73
59.3
74
58.5
75
58.5
76
58.1
77
58.1
78
57.9
79
57.9
80
57.7
81
57.5
82
57.4
83
57.0
84
56.6
85
56.0
86
55.8
87
55.6
88
55.5
89
54.9
90
54.5
91
54.2
92
53.8
93
53.7
94
53.6
95
53.4
96
53.4
97
53.0
98
52.8
99
52.7
100
52.7
101
52.5
102
52.2
103
52.1
104
51.5
105
51.4
106
51.3
107
51.1
108
50.9
109
50.8
110
50.2
111
50.2
112
49.3
113
49.0
114
47.6
115
47.5
116
47.2
117
46.8
118
46.1
119
45.5
120
45.3
121
45.1
122
44.5
123
44.4
124
43.9
125
43.6
126
43.2
127
43.2
128
42.6
129
42.4
130
42.3
131
40.8
132
40.5
133
39.8
134
38.8
135
38.2
136
37.5
137
37.1
138
36.5
139
36.4

Subsaharan Africa is becoming China’s playing field, not least because the dictators of Africa speak the same language as the dictatorship of China. The people always lose.

More:

In China, there are too many people trying to convert their yuan into foreign currency. The government has limited ability to stop this process. This means the yuan will lose a lot of its value versus foreign currencies. Since the late 1990s this was seen as an inevitable problem and in 2010 China agreed to allow the yuan to be freely (within limits) bought and sold. This meant that the international value of the yuan would more accurately reflect the state of the Chinese economy. By letting the yuan “float”, the cost of Chinese exports went up (reducing demand somewhat), while Chinese were able to buy foreign goods for less. Unfortunately the government efforts to control how far the value of the yuan would fall failed and by 2015 it was obvious (because of the stock market collapse that began earlier in the year) that more extreme measures were needed. Those measures have been abandoned, using the American trade war as the reason. That is not accurate, and Chinese who buy and sell dollars and yuan for a living know it. People who run Chinese banks and foreigners who do business with those banks know it as well. As prices rise for Chinese consumers most Chinese will be reminded of their own banking crises and the risks of holding onto yuan or assets denominated in yuan. __ https://strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20190808.aspx

It is predicted (by Kyle Bass) that the Yuan would fall in value by roughly 30% or more if it were allowed to float without artificial support by the communist party government in Beijing. A sudden collapse in the Yuan could trigger cascading global alarms that would shake global markets far beyond the emerging economies, among whom China is still numbered.

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2 Responses to Loss of American Market a Heavy Blow to China

  1. bob sykes says:

    Moving $539 B of imports away from China to other countries does not in anyway benefit American consumers or, especially, workers. That’s still $539 B of lost jobs, lost tax revenues, drug addiction, broken families, reduced defense readiness…

    Forcing American companies to move that manufacturing back to the US would benefit us. Stiff import taxes and import quotas on all countries is needed. Zero immigration would help, too.

    I suppose weakening the Chinese economy is a kind of benefit, schadenfreude.

    • alfin2101 says:

      Weakening the CCP is the objective. More specifically, slowing down the communist party’s timeline for invasion of its near neighbors, such as Hong Kong, Republic of China (Taiwan), and others that will remain nameless for now. China must import a lifeline of food, energy, and advanced technology from the outside. Xi has been very aggressive and ambitious toward all of East, Southeast, and South Asia in the effort to reduce China’s naked vulnerability to multiple shipping chokepoints. At this time it has become more difficult for Xi to show a strong economic base for his aggression, since Trump has not rolled over and played dead in the Obama-Bush-Clinton manner.

      No one blinks an eye at any number of political prisoners murdered in prisons and concentration camps in China or Russia. In the US, one prisoner with political connections possibly murdered in the socialist mayor of NYC de Blasio’s city jail seems to have a lot of people in a tizzy.

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