Loss of the American export market would be a heavy blow to China, as would the continued reduction of the value of its currency. Chinese manufacturing, much of which migrated to it from Japan via South Korea, is already moving on to Vietnam, India, and Mexico (now America’s biggest trading partner).
…The booming American economy that defies all the prayerful warnings and expectations of President Trump’s enemies can steadily eliminate Chinese imports and compensate the agricultural sector that sells to China …
The United States is finally expanding its sphere of substantial economic integration to Mexico (and moving to regularize the demographic flow on its southern border) and is in preliminary economic discussions with the new Brazilian government, and provisionally with post-Brexit Great Britain.
Such a grouping, including Canada, would have a population of 750 million people and a GDP of $30 trillion, with room to expand in Latin America and Australasia as conditions recommend, and to remove the potential Chinese advantage of a comparatively immense population. It would dwarf both China and a truncated, post-Brexit European Union.
This is intelligent grand strategy. ___ https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trump-plays-the-long-game-on-china/90789/
Actions of Chinese saboteurs?
China’s neighbors are US President Trump’s biggest fans. “…Vietnam, India, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia… are a ready group of important states to resurrect a refined containment policy slightly modeled on the North Atlantic alliance but with more emphasis on economic issues. More
The Trump administration’s trade war has caught politically challenged China in an awkward economic moment. China’s economy no longer roars. Economic growth has stalled. __ China a Brittle Police State
As the world turns an increasingly jaundiced eye toward China’s dealings with near-overseas Chinese in Hong Kong and Taiwan, the communist leadership in Beijing are finding that they have bigger problems on their hands. And if they cannot solve these problems, China will not be the only country to suffer:
Both Hong Kong and Taiwan are significantly more competitive than China, according to the 2018 Global Competitiveness Index from the World Economic Forum. That is because in China there is only one actual institution — the Communist Party of China — which makes its economic decisions on a command basis which is far too arbitrary for a healthy economic future. Particularly in a world where China’s working population is shrinking and where having close relationships with the Chinese Communist Party can be increasingly hazardous to one’s health.
Note how competitive Singapore is in the world rankings below. Communist China can only dream of achieving such a ranking, but a non-communist non-totalitarian China might actually achieve it.
Show: All Economies
Subsaharan Africa is becoming China’s playing field, not least because the dictators of Africa speak the same language as the dictatorship of China. The people always lose.
In China, there are too many people trying to convert their yuan into foreign currency. The government has limited ability to stop this process. This means the yuan will lose a lot of its value versus foreign currencies. Since the late 1990s this was seen as an inevitable problem and in 2010 China agreed to allow the yuan to be freely (within limits) bought and sold. This meant that the international value of the yuan would more accurately reflect the state of the Chinese economy. By letting the yuan “float”, the cost of Chinese exports went up (reducing demand somewhat), while Chinese were able to buy foreign goods for less. Unfortunately the government efforts to control how far the value of the yuan would fall failed and by 2015 it was obvious (because of the stock market collapse that began earlier in the year) that more extreme measures were needed. Those measures have been abandoned, using the American trade war as the reason. That is not accurate, and Chinese who buy and sell dollars and yuan for a living know it. People who run Chinese banks and foreigners who do business with those banks know it as well. As prices rise for Chinese consumers most Chinese will be reminded of their own banking crises and the risks of holding onto yuan or assets denominated in yuan. __ https://strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20190808.aspx
It is predicted (by Kyle Bass) that the Yuan would fall in value by roughly 30% or more if it were allowed to float without artificial support by the communist party government in Beijing. A sudden collapse in the Yuan could trigger cascading global alarms that would shake global markets far beyond the emerging economies, among whom China is still numbered.