Why Maine Will Have “an Easier Catastrophe” of It
Demographic catastrophes should always be viewed in relative terms: “Compared to what?” When compared to utter extinction, a demographic squeeze involving more old people to take care of and fewer young people to run things and take care of the old is not so bad. Especially if everyone is working together to share the burden. The US State of Maine is one of the first to experience a demographic squeeze in earnest.
Across Maine, families… are being hammered by two slow-moving demographic forces — the growth of the retirement population and a simultaneous decline in young workers — that have been exacerbated by a national worker shortage pushing up the cost of labor. The unemployment rate in Maine is 3.2 percent, below the national average of 3.7 percent.
The disconnect between Maine’s aging population and its need for young workers to care for that population is expected to be mirrored in states throughout the country over the coming decade, demographic experts say. __ https://beta.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/this-will-be-catastrophic-maine-families-face-elder-boom-worker-shortage-in-preview-of-nations-future/2019/08/14/7cecafc6-bec1-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.html?
One thing that Maine has going for it is that it is relatively homogeneous in its ethnic and cultural makeup. Almost 95% of Maine residents are of European origin, with 89% of babies born to parents of European origin. The people tend to have a strong work ethic and strong sense of family cohesion, overall. Crime rates are below US average. Overall, Maine is well situated for the demographic squeeze to come.
Last year, Maine crossed a crucial aging milestone: A fifth of its population is older than 65, which meets the definition of “super-aged,” according to the World Bank.
By 2026, Maine will be joined by more than 15 other states, according to Fitch Ratings, including Vermont and New Hampshire, Maine’s neighbors in the Northeast; Montana; Delaware; West Virginia; Wisconsin; and Pennsylvania. More than a dozen more will meet that criterion by 2030.
Across the country, the number of seniors will grow by more than 40 million, approximately doubling between 2015 and 2050, while the population older than 85 will come close to tripling.
Experts say the nation will have to refashion its workforce, overhaul its old-age programs and learn how to care for tens of millions of elderly people without ruining their families’ financial lives. __ https://beta.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/this-will-be-catastrophic-maine-families-face-elder-boom-worker-shortage-in-preview-of-nations-future/2019/08/14/7cecafc6-bec1-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.html?
Other states with higher crime rates will suffer far more from the coming demographic squeeze, due to the ageing and reduced effectiveness of law enforcement personnel. Young criminals will emerge from mostly broken homes in relatively younger population groups .
The elderly in general will be victimised in such locations due to their vulnerability. Such crimes of convenience will often occur across racial lines in ethnically mixed neighborhoods where one population harbors simmering resentment against other populations. Due to its homogeneous population, Maine is less likely to deal with such multicultural crimes.
The Global Demographic Squeeze
Slowly, more and more demographers are awakening to a new world of rapidly shrinking populations. Only in sub Saharan Africa and parts of the Muslim world are birth rates still booming. And those birth-booming parts of the world are not particularly known for their positive contributions to science, technology, human thought, or humanitarian concerns. Quite the opposite typically. So the productive and innovative parts of the world are shrinking in population, while the perennial recipients of aide and producers of poverty and misery keep on proliferating. It cannot continue indefinitely this way.
Almost every country in Europe now has a fertility rate below the 2.1 births per woman that is needed to maintain a static population. The UN notes that in some European countries, the birthrate has increased in the past decade. But that has merely pushed the overall European birthrate up from 1.5 to 1.6, which means that the population of Europe will still grow older in the coming decades and contract as new births fail to compensate for deaths. That trend is well under way in Japan, whose population has already crested, and in Russia, where the same trends, plus high mortality rates for men, have led to a decline in the population.
What is striking is that the population bust is going global almost as quickly as the population boom did in the twentieth century. Fertility rates in China and India, which together account for nearly 40 percent of the world’s people, are now at or below replacement levels. So, too, are fertility rates in other populous countries, such as Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand. Sub-Saharan Africa remains an outlier in terms of demographics, as do some countries in the Middle East and South Asia, such as Pakistan, but in those places, as well, it is only a matter of time before they catch up, given that more women are becoming educated, more children are surviving their early years, and more people are moving to cities. __ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2019-08-12/population-bust
It is stupid to expect that population trends which have applied to populations of higher IQ, will also apply to populations of tangibly lower IQ. But then, politically correct academics, journalists, and politicos cannot seem to distinguish among populations which do not share important characteristics — such as high IQ and low levels of violent crime.
As more advanced populations age and shrink, they will find it ever harder to take care of themselves, much less to take care of the parts of the world that live in eternal poverty and violence. Imagine an Africa full of nuclear power plants that the indigenous population cannot maintain. What happens when outside providers of maintenance stop showing up? The same problem applies to all forms of advanced technology which are being misapplied to populations who cannot maintain them on their own.
If populations do not die out during a demographic squeeze, they will have the opportunity to correct their earlier mistakes which caused the problem to begin with. But only if they are capable of learning from their mistakes. Across the advanced world, today’s girls and young women are being taught that it is irresponsible to bring children into the “besieged world” of today. Such widespread propaganda cannot help but create catastrophic consequences. But such idiotic delusions of today — like the climate apocalypse scam — will eventually die out, and will probably take some time to be replaced in the somewhat disrupted world likely to replace the current one.
Hopefully we will not have to use the guillotine on too many perpetrators of these anti-natalist streams of thought which are bringing so much disruption in their paths. But we are going to need a lot more guillotines, nonetheless! 😉
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. It is never too late for a Dangerous Childhood © .