Chinese People are Ambitious, Industrious, and Intelligent
Insofar as China is built upon the Chinese people, its future is solid. The Chinese people are bright, resourceful, resilient, hard-working, and above average for incremental innovation. The problem — and it is a big problem — lies with the current Chinese government. You see, the government is not the country, is not the people. And so China’s “government problem” will keep getting worse.
If China is facing a crisis, the problem is centered on the CCP government.
China’s Crisis of Government
… a persistent economic slowdown and rising tensions with the United States will likely sour the CPC’s mood during the 2021 celebrations. And the one-party regime may not even survive until 2049.
While there is technically no time limit on dictatorship, the CPC is approaching the longevity frontier for one-party regimes. Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party retained power for 71 years (1929-2000); the Communist Party of the Soviet Union ruled for 74 years (1917-1991); and Taiwan’s Kuomintang held on for 73 years (from 1927 to 1949 on the mainland and from 1949 to 2000 in Taiwan). The North Korean regime, a Stalinist family dynasty that has ruled for 71 years, is China’s only contemporary competition. __ https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/crisis-of-chinese-communist-party-by-minxin-pei-2019-09
Most people have trouble visualizing the fall of the communist government in China, but then most people also failed to predict the fall of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact. Successfully modeling these processes requires largely disregarding the media and most political, academic, and think tank sources. Deep knowledge is necessary, which can only come from long study and deeper thinking that is tempered by conversation with persons of depth and experience.
China Has Not Seen 6% GDP Growth in Over a Decade
It is widely known that the communist government statisticians of China do not release reliable figures. If they did, they would swiftly become organ donors.
China hasn’t seen a 6 percent growth rate for nearly a decade… Moreover, the actual size of the Chinese economy was an estimated $10.9 trillion, 18 percent lower than the officially stated $13.4 trillion, as of 2018.
President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs struck the Chinese economy when it was already declining and the effects have been devastating. __ Communist China’s Trade War
Capital flight from China is once again becoming an issue, as is a growing problem of human flight. Companies, religious practitioners, and government bureaucrats are running for the doors. Successful entrepreneurs live in fear of having their wealth confiscated and disappearing into the deep labyrinth of the CCP prison system, perhaps never to be seen again. And so they make provisions to get out — flee to Australia, Canada, the US, Singapore, wherever it seems safe and feasible to do so.
China Ain’t No Kind of Place to Raise a Kid
China ain’t the kind of place to raise a kid
In fact, it’s black as hell
And there’s no one wise to raise them, if you did
And all the agitprop I don’t understand
It’s just my job nine days a week
A party man… A party man
Apologies to Elton John
China’s government has an uncertain future. But China itself — the country, the people, the culture apart from the communist party — the country will abide the change of government. After the communists are gone, China will be faced with a massive cleanup and detoxification project before it will be fit to raise new generations of healthy children. But the people are capable if unshackled from the tyrants’ chains.
US Has Abundant Food, Energy, and Innovation
Meanwhile back in the US, international capital seeks a safe haven in an economically uncertain world. With a recession possibly in the wings for Europe and much of the rest of the world, the US seems one of the few relatively stable harbors to ride out the storm.
In contrast to China, the US has enough food production to feed itself and most of the rest of the world combined. US oil & gas production has slashed needs for imported energy and stabilised global oil markets — again in contrast to China.
And perhaps most importantly, innovations that take place in the US can merge seamlessly into an ocean of innovations worldwide — of both the incremental and the disruptive variety. Without the stifling regional compartmentalization, corruption, and political bulkheads and litmus tests that cripple innovation and entrepreneurship in China, economic integration and growth in the US can take place smoothly and organically.
China is Invincible
The country of China as embodied in the energy and persistence of its people, is invincible. The communist party tyranny in China, on the other hand, has a big problem — a problem of obsolete ideology and monstrous corruption.
To preserve its corrupt ideology, the party imprisons and kills large numbers of those who reside inside the putative borders of communist imperial China. The organ transplant industry in China benefits directly from this mass political and religious imprisonment system.
The people of China must begin planning for life after the party. The sooner prepared, the better. Overseas Chinese from Taiwan to Singapore to Hong Kong see the problem clearly. The backlash against the tyranny has just begun.