Compare the changes in working age populations for 8 nations in the graphs below. In the first graph we see the changes between 1990 and 2019.
In the second graph we see changes projected for working age populations between 2019 and 2050.
We are already seeing tangible declines in working age populations in Germany, Japan, and Russia. But between 2019 and 2050 it seems that the bottom will fall out for those three nations plus everyone else except France and the US. Working age populations include the people who work in the professions, in the military, in law enforcement, in factories, and who maintain the critical infrastructures. If these infrastructures are not maintained, the society’s standard of living and quality of life will crash.
Can Robots Replace Humans?
In many areas of work, computer software and robots are already replacing humans. This trend will continue at a measured pace, as managers and business owners compute the cost benefit for each position on the payroll, and decide whether a lower cost alternative is possible. But computer brains are still very limited in terms of dealing with the irrational world of reality, and for all its flashy signature victories AI still stinks!
Even so, we can expect incremental improvements in computer software and robotic actuators every year. Japan is using robots to care for its burgeoning elderly population, and sex robots are rumored to be more popular there as well.
What Will Change?
As older generations of workers retire and die off, they will be increasingly replaced by persons immigrating from parts of the world where average population IQs are lower, and where rates of violent crime are higher. Ethnic Russian populations, for example, are being replaced by less intelligent workers from Central Asia. Such wholesale population substitutions across the more advanced nations that are in demographic decline, will have a significant impact on the ability of nations to maintain their critical infrastructures.
At the same time, more intelligent and talented young people will tend to migrate away from nations-in-decline, toward those nations that are still capable of maintaining advanced infrastructures that support higher standards of living and quality of life. We are already seeing this in the current phase of the Russian diaspora, with hundreds of thousands of Russia’s best leaving yearly.
The share of Russians seeking to move permanently to another country had never passed Gallup’s 17-percent high in 2007, the U.S. pollster’s results say. However, this number has grown steadily over the past five years, tripling from 7 percent in 2014 to 20 percent in 2018. __ https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/04/record-number-of-russians-want-to-emigrate-gallup-a65092
At the same time, the number of Russian women in the child-bearing years has dropped alarmingly. Birth rates are down accordingly, and Russian death rates remain distressingly high for young and middle-aged men. All of these things take a toll on the Russian working age population, leading to a compounding impact of decline.
These problems are not unique to Russia, although they are somewhat worse there due to high rates of alcoholism, drug abuse, suicide, HIV, TB, economic hardship, and general despair.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.
It is unfortunate that these challenges are facing the most advanced nations of Earth at the same time as a massive political, academic, and cultural “dumbing down” seems to be hitting most of them. It is no surprise that an economic recession is being predicted for much of Europe and other parts of the world. You cannot enforce “institutional stupidity” at the same time as your working age populations are shrinking — and still expect to breed a prosperous and abundant national experience.
Perhaps the crowning act of stupidity in all of this is the widespread embrace of catastrophic energy policies such as Germany’s Energiewende disaster. Without reliable and affordable energy supplies, industries leave the country, jobs disappear, more people cannot afford electricity, and quality of life gradually collapses.
Watch and learn. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .