Global Economic Foreshocks

Anglospheric Economies Set to Grow

Anglospheric countries such as the UK, Canada, and the US are expected to experience economic growth. The UK is expected to benefit from a new trade agreement with the US, perhaps similar to the one enjoyed by Canada.

Mr Trump and Mr Johnson have both talked up the prospects of a wide-ranging pact. Following the Prime Minister’s election victory this month, the US President tweeted that a trade deal between the two nations ‘has the potential to be far bigger and more lucrative than any deal that could be made with the EU’. __ Source

Such an agreement with the US should set the UK up for a better deal with the EU, since many nations of Europe might then see the UK as a “backdoor” into the US economy.

Instead of collapsing from Brexit — as many pundits have predicted — the UK economy seems set to grow faster than Europe’s over the next decade:

BRITAIN’s economy has defied forecasts predicting it would be overtaken by France as a new report reveals we have cemented sixth place in the world.

And by 2034 the UK’s economy is now predicted to be a quarter larger than France’s, according to research by the annual World Economic Rankings from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). __ Source

China Suffers Faster Capital Flight

China has had a rough year, with drops in import/export, decreased investment, and a rise in capital flight as wealthy Chinese look to pad their overseas safety havens in preparation for what may be coming.

Investors fear another devaluation. And that’s a reasonable fear. State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are imploding with unpayable debt.

And anyone with an ounce of common sense knows China’s GDP is grossly overstated.

Money was leaving the country at a record clip earlier this year through unauthorized channels, according to analysts. That’s bad news for China, which needs to keep financial reserves high to maintain confidence in its markets. __ CNN

__ Mish

Bad news for those nations that depend upon a booming Chinese economy — whether artificially booming or not. From 1980 to 2008, China’s economic boom came from outside investment and technology transfer. But since 2008 much of China’s “growth facade” came from massive internal stimulus. Even a shadow economy such as China’s will eventually have to pay the piper.

Revolutionary Groundshifts

The US share of the global economy is now larger than it was in 2007. That share could grow larger, as US President Trump is now consciously exploring several avenues to combat illegal Chinese grifting in global trade:

  • Intellectual property theft
  • Forced technology transfer
  • China subsidizing their manufacturers and the consequent dumping of goods

Each illegal Chinese tactic of trade must be met with a targeted response. Until Trump, no global leader had the gumption to confront the Chinese cheater.

“The short tag line from the president is simply ‘We’re not going to be anybody’s piggy bank anymore. We’re not going to be anybody’s patsy. You cannot keep sending half a trillion dollars a year in trade deficits offshore and expect good things to happen.” __ Source

The US share of global trade has grown since 2007, and is set to grow further if Donald Trump is given time to continue working his long run strategies. Predictably, China does not enjoy facing a trading partner who insists upon playing by international rules.

Others in the Anglosphere Who May Profit

Australia and Canada, which both have skills-based immigration systems that Boris Johnson hopes to emulate after Brexit, are expected to rise in the rankings due to their success in attracting skilled migrants, according to the CEBR report.

By 2034 Canada is predicted to be the eighth largest economy and Australia the 13 biggest. __ Source

How Does the US Improve as a Global Economic Driver?

From Clinton to Obama, the US had a bad run of presidents — people without any genuine insight into economics, trade, or the components that go into national wellbeing and national strength. President Trump is the first US president since Ronald Reagan to move into the political arena after having been successful in the private economic sector. Experience outside of politics provides needed insights to political leaders.

“Why is manufacturing and trade so central to Trump’s vision?”

“Economic security is national security,” replied Navarro. “You can’t have a strong United States of America from a military perspective unless you have a strong manufacturing base which begets a strong defense industrial base. The second reason is simply that these jobs tend to pay more, plus they have a robust supply chain which ripples jobs out across the land.”

Navarro notes the ‘high multiplier effect’ from manufacturing felt across the economy – as it provides a “key source of employment for those who don’t go to college,” which benefits “blue collar folks in flyover states, in our communities, that can earn very good wages and an ability of working with their hands, building things for America and the world.”

“As someone once said, the Republican Party under President Trump has become the party of the working class, and that’s why we focus on manufacturing,” he added. __ Source

For a society to be strong it must be strong all the way down to its foundations. People of the working class must believe that they and their children have a dynamic future in front of them. They do not demand “equality.” They demand a chance to climb the ladder. This is why genuine workers on average tend to distrust socialism, while “intellectuals and pseudo-intellectuals” flock to socialism. And that is how the US elections of 2020 are shaping up: people who actually work for a living vs. the parasitic intellectuals/pseudointellectuals of media, academia, politics, activism, foundations, lobbyists, bureaucracies (including corporate bureaucracies).

If Trump is Re-Elected Expect Stronger Shocks to the System

A few Trump accomplishments from the past few years:

  • President Trump negotiated a new trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico to replace the disastrous and outdated North American Free Trade Agreement.
  • The President implemented a five-year ban on lobbying for White House employees and a lifetime ban on lobbying for foreign countries.
  • Since the election, 4.6 million Americans have been lifted off of food stamps
  • More than 5 million jobs have been created since President Trump’s election and the unemployment rate remains below 4 percent.
  • The women’s unemployment rate recently reached its lowest rate in 65 years.
  • President Trump signed legislation to roll back burdensome Dodd-Frank regulations that harmed community banks.
  • US economic growth has been consistently stronger since Trump’s election
  • President Trump secured a record $73.1 billion in funding for the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to provide quality medical care for our veterans.
  • Each quarter since taking office, President Trump has donated his salary, fulfilling a promise he made to the American people.
  • In a historic show of transparency and accountability, the Trump Administration completed the Department of Defense’s first ever audit.


Trump is also moving the nation’s courts away from political activism and back toward a more solid constitutionalism. This important move brings “rule of law” back to the forefront of American life and enterprise — setting the stage for longer-term prosperity.

Donald Trump has a better understanding of debt-based economic systems such as modern governments, than his predecessors going back decades. The only thing being offered by the opposition going into the 2020 elections, is socialism. And while today’s young may want to give another chance to the economic system that killed 100 million people in the 20th century, perhaps wiser and more experienced heads with more long-term perspectives will prevail.

The revolution inside the UK leading to Brexit is the first of the foreshocks suggesting a change from global decline as previously scheduled.

If Trump is re-elected, the global economic system will experience additional shaking and turning back from the precipice — which the policies of Clinton-Bush II-Obama combined with rotten EU policies had been inexorably approaching for decades.

North American Energy Shocks to Continue

Before the US shale boom of the 2010s, the global economy was being held ransom by the machinations of energy-rich dictatorships — which needed very high oil prices to fund their budgets and global ambitions. But something happened since 2010 to shake up the global energy regime.

In 2010, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that in 2019, the U.S. would be producing about six million barrels of oil a day. The reality? We’re now producing 12 million barrels of oil a day.

Meanwhile, EIA projected oil prices would be more than $100 a barrel. They’re currently hovering around $60 a barrel.

__ Axios

Since 2014, North American energy production has overturned the global equilibrium. Oil prices have since stayed consistently lower and have proved resistant to the old “oil-shock” strategies of OPEC and Russia. Expect more of the same over the next 10 years.

The Boris Johnson Effect in the UK

The leader of the UK is bringing a more confident attitude to the nation which has not been seen there since the days of Margaret Thatcher and before that the days of Winston Churchill.

Boris Johnson has already shown that he has the ambition and enthusiasm – as well as the intellect – required to deliver what is needed.

There is a sense of national relief that the logjam has been broken. Get ready for a Prime Minister who is not afraid to make us laugh and show us that hard work is fun. __ Letter to the editor

If the Anglosphere is to help bring a more optimistic future to the world, it demands leaders willing to step back from the socialist policies of decline.

Western Europe is badly in need of such leaders.


Global stocks gain over $17 trillion in value in 2019

Paul Krugman blames Trump … Heh!

China headed for a large default which could trigger a global slowdown, except for people smart enough to decouple from China ahead of time.

China’s economic growth has been exaggerated

Trump Riding the Storm As 2020 Rolls In:

“Trump is winning with union voters (Trump leads 48% to 42%) and consumers-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 63% to 32%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 37%), and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 43%),” reports Zogby.

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