Taiwan and Hong Kong Compare China Notes

“For sure. I already knew that China was an asshole. But after everything that happened in Hong Kong, I knew that that could be really worse.

“They promised Hong Kong 50 years of freedom. They’re already breaking it. They couldn’t keep the promise and why would I trust them? I will never trust them. I already didn’t trust them and now it just proves that I could never trust them.”

__ 27 yo Female Digital Designer in Taiwan

Hong Kong won a great democratic victory against an oppressor last November. Elections in Taiwan are now approaching, and a delegation from Hong Kong has traveled to the besieged island to see the elections for themselves.

Democracy Under Acute Threat

After seeing what the Chinese Communist Party tried to do in Hong Kong — and knowing what the communists are doing in Xinjiang, in Tibet, and to religious observers and independent thinkers inside Han China — the people of Taiwan must decide what kind of officials to elect. Should they elect officials who want to cozy up to the mainland communists, taking the red bribes to look the other way? Or should they elect officials who are more independent minded, who will steer Taiwan on its own path?

Hong Kong citizens are taking the opportunity to travel to Taiwan to observe the proceedings, and to offer any advice should they be asked.

Hong Kong activists and budding pro-democracy politicians have flocked to Taiwan to observe its elections, aiming to bolster exchanges and galvanize an alliance against China’s influence.

One delegation of about 50, including a batch of young district councillors who stormed to a landslide electoral victory in November, arrived this week and has been networking with key Taiwan civil society leaders, academics and officials.

“There’s an acute sense of threat from China. What’s happened in Hong Kong has made everyone reassess its relationship with Beijing,” Joseph Cheng, a veteran pro-democracy activist and one of the leaders of the delegation.

… __ Source

Communist China is Itself Unsteady

China’s economy has been somewhat troubled for more than a year. And while China’s ruling elite will have no trouble — with 90% of China’s ultra-rich being related to top officials — the ordinary Chinese worker is beginning to wonder where things are headed.

China cannot keep such an extreme pace of debt-growth going. The debt load is just too high while productivity growth has stagnated. Though a massive infrastructure-spending program, for example, could revive growth, the ability of China to issue fiscal stimulus is starting to be seriously limited.

… the “Chinese Miracle” has been more of a “Potemkin Village” for more than a decade. Because China has been kept growing by an incomprehensibly large increase in debt, its economy is actually a massive and vulnerable Ponzi-scheme waiting to collapse.

__ This is the end of the miracle

A weakening Beijing could not rein in the upstarts in Hong Kong, and so an attitude of independence from the empire tends to spread from Hong Kong outward. Even on the mainland, average Chinese are wondering why they should have to tighten their belts while the elite rulers are enjoying their luxuries while lording it over the coolies.

Those who have gathered enough wealth to leave the country with their families are making their plans.

The princelings are jealous of the fortunes made by China’s entrepreneurial class and have started to take their fortunes from them, starting with the likes of Jack Ma, who had founded Alibaba. Another Chinese billionaire, Miles Kwok, has predicted that Jack Ma will be either in prison or dead within a year. Once started, expropriation will work its way down through the economy, and it will be a profound productivity-killer.

A lot of China’s managerial class now has at least part of its fortune offshore and has sent its children, often only one child, to foreign universities. Some of those children have been told, “Never come back to China.”

__ Source

Chinese communists are masters of propaganda, espionage, and technology theft. The elite ruling class expropriates the nation’s wealth wherever possible, while leaving enough to the little people to give them hope of improvement.

The people of Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and other overseas Chinese outposts understand the basic logic of how the communists run the mainland prison nation. And the smarter ones want no part of it. Meanwhile, on the mainland, an undercurrent of doubt is beginning to build.

The Chinese people take a long time to act against an empire or a system that blacks out their future. But when they act, the aftermath is rending.

More Taiwanese waking to China reality

[Pro-Taiwan candidate Tsai] leads [Pro-China candidate] Han by 39 percentage points among 20-29 year-olds and 35 percentage points among 30-39 year-olds in polls. In contrast, she leads Han by only 6 percentage points among those aged 50-59, an age group in which Han had been ahead earlier last year. The results of this poll, however, should not be interpreted as reflecting only Tsai’s particular likability among the youth and Han’s failure to connect. A rising Taiwanese identity and alienation toward unification with China are the fundamental reasons behind this generation gap, and Han’s perceived China-friendly image has cost him dearly.

82.4 percent of 20-29 year-olds considered themselves as Taiwanese only. For people aged 40-49, 50-59, and 60-plus, that number was between 55-58 percent in all three groups. __ Generation Gap in Taiwan

China screwed the pooch in Hong Kong, in terms of the effect on Taiwan.

More: CPC infiltrates every niche

Update 1/11/20: Tsai Ing-wen wins in a landslide — Beijing licks its wounds

Stratfor looks at Tsai’s victory

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2 Responses to Taiwan and Hong Kong Compare China Notes

  1. Gavin Longmuir says:

    What is reality in China? One of the big surprises for me on a recent trip to western China was seeing people in the evening pouring out of the apartment buildings into the pedestrian precincts — and dancing! People did not seem unhappy or afraid. There was very little police presence. People behaved responsibly — none of the machete-swingers of London or the sketchy people of San Francisco.

    What could I tell them about democracy? In my part of the US, a tiny group of extremists chose who will be the Democrat candidate, and often she runs unopposed. I have a vote, but it does not mean anything — it does not influence the government. We all see that there is one law for Democrat insiders like Hillary Clinton or Comey, and a different law for the rest of us. In reality, our “democracy” is converging with China’s state capitalism — and there is very little we as citizens can do about it. Maybe one day we will have to follow the example of the people of Hong Kong.

    • alfin2101 says:

      Very interesting, thanks!

      You describe one of the better, more innocent but less likely realities that someone in China may experience. On the other hand, someone trying to practise their religion in China might find themselves locked up in a camp, tissue typed and ready for the surgeon (but not the anaesthetist) before they can say “Oh my God!”

      What you describe sounds like something out of a movie like Fame. How that might relate to the millions in Xinjiang concentration camps or to the average Tibetan ready to rebel, is difficult to say. The Chinese have limited electronic access to things going on across their own country, much less to places like Hong Kong that may as well be a world away.

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