Coronavirus Lockdowns are Delaying Herd Immunity

Here’s why the true infection rate in a region matters: the bigger it is, the less pain still lies ahead. Eventually, when enough people are immune—maybe half to three-quarters of us—the virus won’t be able to spread further, a concept called herd immunity. __MIT Tech Review

Nature’s way of building herd immunity to an infectious agent can be harsh, and deadly. Random testing for Wuhan CoV-19 seems to show that western countries are a long way from herd immunity. Random coronavirus antibody testing in the German town of Gangelt, reveals herd immunity running around 15%. In a section of Chicago, herd immunity to Wuhan nCoV runs between 30% and 50%.

But random testing is also showing us that the lethality of the Wuhan virus may be much lower than has been assumed by all of the disease modelers, who have panicked the media/political axis of terror.

Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week. __ Source

Where Do We Stand?

Worldwide, the COVID-19 fatalities add up to just under 20% of an average flu season. In the U.S., COVID-19 fatalities to date are 26% of the number that we suffered just two flu seasons ago. I am not sure why these numbers are not more widely known. They seem relevant to me.

Why are we destroying the economy for this?

Hopeful Results from Remdesivir Trials

More than two-thirds of severely ill COVID-19 patients saw their condition improve after treatment with remdesivir, an experimental drug being developed by Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD.O), according to new data based on patient observation.

The analysis, published on Friday by the New England Journal of Medicine, does not detail what other treatments the 61 hospitalized patients were given…

There are currently no approved treatments or preventive vaccines for COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus that has killed more than 100,000 people worldwide. __ Source

The mainland communists are so optimistic about this drug that they stole the patent from Gilead Sciences Inc.! But that’s not unusual, since when they are not creating dangerous viruses, they are likely to be stealing something or other.

Many potential treatments for coronavirus are cheap and easy to make

How to expedite a cure for Wuhan CoV-19

Texas Plans to Reopen Its Economy

In the US, each governor must decide when to shut his state down, and when to reopen it. Texas plans a “phased reopening” starting around the end of the month.

“We’re not going to open up everything immediately, but it will be done in phases, but we need to get started, and I hope that’s the first week of May, barring any unforeseen big spikes,” Patrick said on the call…

Over the past week, Abbott has stressed the importance of getting personal protective equipment to healthcare workers. At Wednesday’s press conference, he announced the state’s partnership with Fort Worth-area company Prestige Ameritech, who will manufacture 2 million masks per week.

Abbott said on Friday, over the past 8 days, the state has shipped 3,710,000 masks, 116,700 face shields 4,480,000 gloves, and 78,000 gowns and coveralls. __ Texas Moving Forward

It is important to shield the most vulnerable from exposure, while allowing frontline essential workers to face the virus with state of the art protective equipment. Some will get infected, of course, which will build herd immunity in a measured fashion. As more and more businesses and institutions are reopened phase by phase to healthy participants with varied levels of protection, herd immunity will build in a corresponding fashion.

Military Preparedness Is Also Important

The US military is largely responsible for keeping the sea lanes of the world open for trade and commerce. The US also maintains various rapid response and expeditionary forces, capable of responding to international emergencies almost anywhere on the globe. As Wuhan CoV-19 moves through military bases, causing mostly low-level illness, the question of military preparedness will arise.

China — the source of the Wuhan virus and the architect of the global pandemic — stands always ready to take advantage of any weakness shown by an opponent. Spokesmen for the US military have released various announcements warning other nations not to try to take advantage of the pandemic to create more mischief than they usually would.

The question of military preparedness is the greatest criticism of US Navy Capt. Brett Crozier, who announced to the world that the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt was experiencing a worrisome outbreak of Chinese coronavirus. The communist government in Beijing must have been happy to get the news. Thanks Brett.

Last week, videos from the vessel were published on social media of sailors cheering for the carrier’s commander, who had been fired by superiors for neglecting to take action to mitigate the virus spread.

“There’s an entire sea of people,” said Victoria-Lola Leon Guerrero, co-chair of the political advocacy organization Independent Guahan, indicating that those who cheered onboard CVN-71 as the relieved captain disembarked. “Hardly any of them are wearing masks. Nobody is social distancing. The captain himself exits the ship without a mask and shakes hands with [someone who was] picking him up … And now we’re hearing that this captain is positive for COVID.”

… The virus-infected aircraft carrier has been docked in Guam since March 26, when cases of the virus started to appear on the ship. __ Captain Clueless

We will not learn the true story of what happened onboard the Roosevelt until we get more information from the several medical officers who were onboard the ship, and were supposedly advising the captain.

Why the Navy is so concerned:

[Besides the Roosevelt,] two sailors aboard the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan, docked at Yokosuka, Japan, had also tested positive, leading to a lockdown of the entire base there, and the Navy’s concern about the combat readiness of naval airpower in the western Pacific had become heightened – especially with North Korea again test-firing missiles, and China trading insults with the United States over the virus and trade disputes, while menacing Taiwan as well. __ Source

Quips and Quotes:

Albert Einstein once said “There are two things that are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and I am not sure about the universe.”

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” __ Benjamin Disraeli, attributed by Mark Twain

The disease models for Wuhan CoV-19 are based upon our experience with influenza pandemics. But since this is a virus from a different family — perhaps one of a kind when all is said and done — there is a lot we do not know. Every model is almost certain to contain a multitude of lies.

But they do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?

The British government has based its planning and policy for COVID-19 on the assumption that if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked it would eventually infect 80 percent of the population. That is a figure that seems to have been borrowed from planning for a flu pandemic, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it applies to this virus. The sooner we have the results of more studies like that at Gangelt, the better a picture we have and the sooner we will be able to plot a path out of lockdown. __

What will happen when the catastrophic shutdown orders under which most of us have been living are finally lifted, in May or June? Since sheltering in place was only intended to delay the virus’s spread, not to prevent it, we should assume that COVID infection and death numbers will rise dramatically. But what if they don’t? Won’t that be strong evidence that the states’ extreme shutdown measures were not needed in the first place? Don’t expect any politicians to make the point, but I think the answer is Yes.


It is likely to take between 6 months and 18 months to develop and distribute an effective vaccine for this particular “made-in-China” virus. There is no escaping the likelihood that we will have to acquire herd immunity, one way or another.

Destroying society — and putting hundreds of millions at risk — in order to save tens of thousands of at-risk persons from an early grave, may not be a rational calculation.


If you want uncensored news about China, the NTD News outlet is reportedly run by the Falun Gong — a group with no love lost for the communist regime.

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3 Responses to Coronavirus Lockdowns are Delaying Herd Immunity

  1. DaveNYC says:

    I rarely, if ever, see comments here, but I just wanted to thank you for the time and effort you put into this blog.
    Always a lot of useful information with relevant links included.
    Thanks again. It’s appreciated!

  2. Shawn Foster says:

    You post various comparisons to annual flu deaths but I haven’t seen a few critical pieces of info: testing levels for deaths outside hospitals- it’s not like autopsies are common in the elderly. More importantly how many flu deaths would one expect of doctors, nurses, and first responders? Either it’s a virus escaped from. Chinese lab which the government tried to conceal, or it’s a nothingburger, but it cannot be both. Curtailing the spread while we prepare- I mean we don’t even have enough masks for hospitals let alone the public, is totally reasonable. We’re not crashing the economy because the world has been living on a pile of debt for decades, and economic activity has gone from wealth generation to servicing debt, on an aggregate level. When the production of PPE and medication is at full capacity and up to the occasion, we’ll be able to handle what may come, but forcing our way through with no supplies and little knowledge because some people don’t want to protect the weak is basically giving into the most corrupt forces.

    • alfin2101 says:

      Let’s do more seroprevalence studies, to understand the largely asymptomatic nature of this disease, and how many people are gaining immunity unbeknownst to the official authorities.

      Police-enforced lockdown is not the same as careful social distancing combined with special protection of those particularly at risk.

      Personal protective equipment does not need to be made in China or any OSHA approved location. It just needs to reduce the viral count in the environment. Persons who are exposed to lower viral counts are more likely to have mild infections or no infections.

      Teach these pathetic and helpless generations to make something useful for themselves, and see if they acquire a new attitude. Instead of crying themselves to sleep in fear (and worrying how they will pay off their school loans), perhaps they will take a can-do approach to more parts of their lives.

      China may have known exactly what they were doing, suggesting that they may understand our brave new culture better than we do.

      By the way, this virus can easily have escaped from a Wuhan virology lab, and at the same time be hyped by western governments and media. It is not so difficult to understand why it can be both.

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