USS Theodore Roosevelt: 840 CoV-19 Positive; 1 Death; 4 in Hospital; 0 in ICU

Coronavirus in Tight Quarters

The experience of USN aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, provides an epidemiologic experiment into Wuhan CoV-19 spread and virulence in a closely packed, relatively young and fit population. Sailors occupy tight quarters on board ship. It may seem odd that only about 15% of sailors tested positive, but there exists a possibility of some pre-existing natural immunity, or some genetic predisposition for or against infection and serious reaction to infection.

In a month, the Navy has tested all of the nearly 5,000 sailors of the virus-stricken USS Theodore Roosevelt.

The latest updates as of Friday morning show positive results have climbed to 840. Negative results amount to 4,098, with 100% of the crew tested, according to the Navy. Dozens of sailors who initially tested negative later tested positive.

Of the total cases, 88 sailors have recovered, up from the 63 reported on Thursday.

The Navy reported 4,234 sailors moved ashore into housing on Naval Base Guam and into hotels in Tamuning and Tumon.

As more sailors recovered, the Navy reported a decrease in sailors at the U.S. Naval Hospital. As of Friday, there were four sailors at the hospital and none in the ICU.__ Source

Assuming that 41 yo CPO Thacker‘s death was at least partially caused by the Wuhan coronavirus, the IFR from the experience of the Roosevelt’s crew of 5,000, is 0.12%. (1 death out of 840 infected)

CPO Thacker had tested positive, but had displayed no symptoms before being found unresponsive in quarters ashore. Without further information, the range of possible causes of death must include suicide, a coronary event, a stroke, or other medical or non-medical misadventures related or unrelated to Wuhan CoV-19. As is the custom, the death is counted as a coronavirus death.

What Are the Best Home Materials to Use to Make Your Coronavirus Mask?

Make sure the fit is good.

Because N95 and surgical masks are scarce and should be reserved for health care workers, many people are making their own coverings. Now, researchers report in ACS Nano that a combination of cotton with natural silk or chiffon can effectively filter out aerosol particles…

… One layer of a tightly woven cotton sheet combined with two layers of polyester-spandex chiffon — a sheer fabric often used in evening gowns — filtered out the most aerosol particles (80-99%, depending on particle size), with performance close to that of an N95 mask material. Substituting the chiffon with natural silk or flannel, or simply using a cotton quilt with cotton-polyester batting, produced similar results. The researchers point out that tightly woven fabrics, such as cotton, can act as a mechanical barrier to particles, whereas fabrics that hold a static charge, like certain types of chiffon and natural silk, serve as an electrostatic barrier. However, a 1% gap reduced the filtering efficiency of all masks by half or more, emphasizing the importance of a properly fitted mask. __ ACS

Wearing a mask helps to accomplish two things:

  • It reduces the number of viral particles that may enter your body
  • It helps remind you not to touch your face
  • Wearing gloves should also help you to remember to keep your hands away from your face.

    Various national curves for “new cases”:

    24 April 2020 JHU New Cases Curves by Nation
    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

    Sweden continues to have a lower death rate (without lockdowns) from Wuhan CoV-19 than most European countries that are utilising lockdowns.

    US states without full lockdowns are doing better than states with full lockdowns. Inside the US, New York is the undisputed coronavirus horror zone. A large part of the blame goes to NYC’s subway system, implementing city policies that likely magnified the spread of virus by an order of magnitude.

    Seroprevalence studies suggest the Chinese virus has infected far more people than the official case numbers indicate. Evidence from New York, Santa Clara County California, Los Angeles County California, and the USS Theodore Roosevelt — among other locations — indicates that most people infected by Wuhan CoV-19 show no symptoms, or have very few minor complaints.

    While these studies are the first to use antibodies, anecdotal information also suggests the virus has reached far more people than we know. Rochelle Walensky, MD, chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, shared some surprising local results. To make room for more COVID patients, Brigham and Women’s wanted to empty their subacute nursing facility. Before releasing those patients, though, they had to be tested. Out of 87 patients total, 50 tested positive—and none had shown any symptoms.

    Also in Boston, at one homeless shelter none of the 146 people who tested positive had any symptoms. Aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, 600 crewmembers have tested positive, but at least 350 of them are asymptomatic. In an Ohio prison that did widespread testing, 73% of inmates—more than 1,800 people—were confirmed to have the virus, many without symptoms.

    A report that relied upon CDC data for people with influenza-like illnesses estimates that at least 8.7 million people were infected with coronavirus during a three-week period in March. And a new analysis of widespread testing in the town of Vo, Italy, found that 43% of people who tested positive showed no symptoms. Neither report has yet been peer reviewed.

    Very few people writing about this pandemic seem to understand the importance of the total amount of virus taken into the body, in terms of the outcome of infection. A smaller number of virus particles taken in will lead to a milder infection, with a more rapid recovery to the point where the person no longer sheds the virus, and is no longer contagious.

    Importantly, the scientists could not grow viruses from throat swabs or sputum specimens after day 8 of illness from people who had mild infections. __ Source

    Donald Trump seems to have been far closer to being right about fatality rates than was the WHO or most academics

    Comment

    Long term, the countries that can maintain their economic output at high levels will be the countries that can support their populations the best in the present and the future. An impoverished country is at the mercy of forces outside of itself. Gestapo lockdowns/shutdowns lead to poverty.

    As we learn more about how the Chinese coronavirus behaves in various populations, we will learn how to shape better policies that both protect the vulnerable, and allow the less vulnerable workers to support the economy in a protected manner.

    Rational social distancing is the opposite of total lockdown, just as rational distancing is the opposite of intentional exposure to the virus. The sooner that governments come to understand their responsibility toward the future, the sooner that a rational approach to riding out this pandemic from a position of strength can be put in place.

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    1 Response to USS Theodore Roosevelt: 840 CoV-19 Positive; 1 Death; 4 in Hospital; 0 in ICU

    1. Gavin Longmuir says:

      “… the IFR from the experience of the Roosevelt’s crew of 5,000, is 0.12%. (1 death out of 840 infected …”

      Of greater interest to most of us is that the probability of getting infected even when given significant exposure to infected virus carriers is rather limited — only 840 infected out of 5,000 means 83% (4 out of 5) people exposed to the virus do not even get infected, let alone sick. That percentage is fairly similar to the Diamond Princess, despite the drastically different age distributions between the two ships.

      The meaningful death rate is the percentage of the total population. 1 death out of a population of 5,000 means that Joe Public has about 0.02% chance of dying from this virus. Joe Public’s chance of dying in the next year or two from unintended consequences of the Political Class’s unwarranted over-reaction to C-19 may well turn out to be much higher than 0.02%.

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