In modern nations the greatest killer is not war, famine, or plague. It is old age, and stupid choices.
COVID-19 poses a danger to the elderly and the medically compromised. Otherwise, for most who present symptoms, it can be nasty and persistent, but is not life-threatening. A majority of those infected do not notice that they have the disease. Coronavirus presents us with a medical challenge, not a crisis. The crisis has been of our own making.
Most deaths from the Wuhan virus are in people over 70 years of age. Because of the age effects, more years of human life are lost every year from motor vehicle accidents in the US than will be lost from all the victims of Chinese coronavirus. Strangely, the economy is not locked down as a result of motor vehicle accidents.
COVID-19’s damage has been awful. But from a public policy perspective, it should be judged by the number of living days it has robbed from human beings, not by raw deaths tallied up without the context of demographics. Using the living days stolen scale is the only fair way to assess COVID-19’s damage as policy makers and citizens begin the hard task of weighing the health and economic tradeoffs of COVID-19.
80 million stolen days – from COVID-19 deaths in 2020 625 million stolen days – from auto-related deaths in 2020
(note: to convert stolen days into stolen years, divide by 365. 😉 )
Panicked by the fact that thousands of lives are being marginally shortened (on the par of deaths from yearly influenza), politicians are flirting with famine for the millions and long-term hardship. Is this wise? No, but who ever accused politicians, journalists, celebrities, or most academics of being wise?
Multiple recent studies from Iceland, Germany, USC, Stanford and New York City all suggest that the fatality rate if infected is likely far lower than early estimates, perhaps under 0.1 to 0.4 percent, i.e., 10 to 40 times lower than estimates that motivated extreme isolation.
In the Big Apple, with almost one-third of all US deaths, the rate of death for all people ages 18 to 45 is 0.01 percent, or 13 per 100,000 in the population, one-eightieth of the rate for people age 75 and over. For people under 18, the rate of death is zero per 100,000. Of Empire State fatalities, almost two-thirds were over 70 years of age. And regardless of age, if you don’t already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small. Of 7,959 NYC COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions, 99.2 percent had an underlying illness. __ Source
For the oblivious overlords locked away in their home offices, dulled by ice cream and alcohol, there is no need to restart the economy. They themselves are doing fine. What else matters?
In the beginning, we had a goal: to flatten the curve. We were warned that COVID-19 would overtake our hospitals and cause a health-system collapse. We were to stay home to give our medical heroes a fighting chance.
So we did, and thanks to the strength of our system, it worked. The Javits Center never filled up; the USS Comfort is sailing away. Three weeks ago, Gov. Andrew Cuomo was vowing to seize ventilators from upstate hospitals and send them to Gotham. Last week, we were dispatching our ventilators out to other states.
We did our part; we flattened the curve. So why is there no move to loosen regulations? __ Waiting for the End of the World (to stop waiting)
Outside of New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois — and a few other hard case states — the US experience with Wuhan virus has been mostly unremarkable in comparison with other seasonal respiratory viruses. So it is no surprise that in many of those jurisdictions local governments are easing up on gestapo lockdowns. Several European nations are beginning to re-open schools, businesses, and factories in a staged manner. The civilised world is slowly understanding that if it does not wake up, it will have killed itself over a minor league plague.
Watch and remember. Take names if you are so inclined.
But imagine a virucidal compound safe enough to be inhaled, or to be allowed to pass through the GI tract or GU tract. Silver nanoparticles, for example, are both bactericidal and virucidal. Now isn’t that amusing? Imagine how many other possibilities might be useful in various circumstances. But if we are only capable of laughing at the idea, what will we ever learn or invent?
- go to work
- stay away from crowds
- maintain a 2 meter distance
- wash your hands
- wear a mask in public
- don’t touch your face
- don’t shake hands
- keep public surfaces clean/disinfected
- wear cotton gloves in public, change and wash often
In the grocery store:
Rational social distancing and personal protection just makes sense, as we have been saying. Total lockdowns do not make sense. The Gestapo must be destroyed.
Welcome to paranoia world where media and politicians tell you “we’re all gonna die!” They have half the idiots out there convinced they are right. But what is really happening?
… the national death rate for all causes was 723.6 per 100,000 in 2018; for heart disease it was 163.6 per 100,000.
California’s coronavirus death rate is four deaths per 100,000; Pennsylvania’s, 13 deaths per 100,000; Utah’s, one death per 100,000; Washington State’s, nine deaths per 100,000; Wisconsin’s, four deaths per 100,000; Georgia’s, which we are supposed to believe is about to unleash a mortal plague upon the country, eight deaths per 100,000; Texas’s, two deaths per 100,000; and Florida’s, four deaths per 100,000, despite its elderly population. An MSNBC pundit gleefully predicted several weeks ago that Missouri would succumb because it had not halted its economy soon enough. Its virus death rate stands at four deaths per 100,000.
Not just Nevada… about half the citizens of nearly every state are going to rebel against this suicidal shutdown policy.
When people begin to understand that their leaders aren’t leading any more, they will either find other people to follow, or just go off and do their own thing. Political power is not only taken away at the ballot box, it’s also taken away when people just stop listening to you, which they will do when it becomes apparent you have nothing to say. And if someone else does have something to say, well, your power bleeds away that much faster.