The map is not the territory. The model is not the reality. The GCM is not the climate. The government is not the country.
And we should know by now that the disease model is not the disease reality.
When Disease Models Fail
A failure in California:
Elon Musk Tweet
via Instapundit
Disease models are in the process of destroying many economies of the world. In the US, entire health care systems are in danger of collapse due to the gestapo lockdown policies of governors of states such as California, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois — and their many copycats around the country. The net death toll from lockdowns will turn out to be higher than the toll from coronavirus.
The one particular disease model that caused western countries to commit economic suicide was recently applied to Sweden, to determine whether its assumptions had any validity in the real world:
The Swedish model laid out its predicted death and hospitalization rates for competing policy scenarios in a series of graphs. According to their projections (shown below in blue), the current Swedish government’s response – if permitted to continue – would pass 40,000 deaths shortly after May 1, 2020 and continue to rise to almost 100,000 deaths by June.
The most severe of the lockdown strategies they considered was supposed to cut that number to between 10-20,000 by May 1st while preserving hospital capacity – provided that the Swedish government changed course by April 10th and imposed a policy similar to the rest of Europe. In its most optimistic scenario, the model predicted that this change would reduce total deaths from 96,000 to under 30,000 by the end of June. __ Source
Disease Model Apocalypse
https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/
But what actually happened in the real Sweden?
As of April 29th, Sweden’s death toll from COVID-19 stands at 2,462, and its hospitals are nowhere near the projected collapse.
Although only time will tell how the comparative strategies continue to hold up, these early results do not speak well of the accuracy of predictions built around the ICL model. Assuming the Swedish modelers correctly adapted the ICL approach (and their accompanying data appendix appears to do so, drawing its stated parameters directly from Ferguson’s work), the failure of its predictions would seem to suggest that its underlying assumptions about the effectiveness of specific lockdown policies are completely unfounded.
At least in this Swedish adaptation of the ICL approach, the assumed benefits of a more severe lockdown policy appear to have been greatly exaggerated. The assumed risks of the milder course adopted by the Swedish government appear to have been similarly inflated. And the overall death toll of the baseline “do nothing” scenario appears to have little grounding in reality. __ Source
It almost seems like they wanted a lot of people to die. And by destroying the economies of much of the world with their bungled disease models, they are likely to achieve deaths beyond their fondest dreams. Who knew that epidemiologists and disease modelers could be such ghouls?
Not safer at home if you have cancer, heart disease, or are suicidal.
Another set of ghouls apparently reside within health departments and centers for disease control, where they are mandating the overuse of the coronavirus diagnosis on death certificates:
Funeral Directors Blow the Whistle
“They are putting COVID on a lot of death certificates because people who are going to their hospital with any kind of respiratory distress, respiratory problems, pneumonia, the flu — the flu-like symptoms lead into the COVID-19,” said Joseph Antioco of Schafer Funeral Home. “To me, all you’re doing is padding the statistics. You’re putting people on that have COVID-19 even if they didn’t have it. You’re making the death rate for New York City a lot higher than it should be.” __ Source
A look into the “Wuhan CoV-19 death inflation” taking place under the direction of public health officials in New York and elsewhere:
Imagine how easy it would be to fudge the numbers under government health care, where all the medical providers were directly beholden to politicians for their paychecks.
If you follow the money, it is not difficult to understand what motivates powerful interests in government, media, and academia to inflate both the expectation of death and its reality. Over the next several years, tens of $trillions of dollars are at stake based upon US government policies. That is a lot of money that could be diverted profitably into the hands of some powerful and influential interests — if only the right people were put in positions of influence.
The Wuhan coronavirus pandemic provides a powerful pivot point for influencing a broad swath of public opinion. Swing enough votes just the right way, and those tens of $trillions can be yours! They have always known that, but until now they did not have the proper pivot to use. Now they think they do. And they are leveraging their advantage every which way they can. Who are these mysterious people? This link points to a few of them, but if you scour the depths of the media, academia, the deep state, and other corrupt institutions of society, you will not have to look long or hard to find them grubbing in the slops. More
In summary, if everything you think you know… is wrong — then everything you are told by the vested interests in media, academia, government, and other cultural institutions, is doubly wrong. Simple, eh?
More:
Compare society’s reaction to the 1968 global Hong Kong flu pandemic, with the gestapo lockdown reaction to the Wuhan CoV-19 pandemic. More deaths from the flu in ’68, but no hysteria in 1968.
Hundreds of thousands were hospitalized in the U.S. as the disease hit all 50 states by Christmas 1968. Like COVID-19, It was fatal primarily to people older than 65 with preexisting conditions. The Centers for Disease Control reports that it killed more than 1 million people worldwide, more than 100,000 of them in the U.S. Luckily, a vaccine was developed early — in August 1969. But the Hong Kong flu is still with us as a seasonal malady.
During the Hong Kong flu, Americans rode buses less often, washed their hands, and practiced social distancing. But they went to work.
Marilyn Brown worked at the Los Angeles Department of Social Services during the Hong Kong flu. “Other than my coworkers bringing their own alcohol to wipe down their desks and wipe down pencils and not use pencils that clients had used, we didn’t do anything,” she recently told Travel Weekly.
Philip Snashall, a now retired professor of medicine, wrote in the British Medical Journal that his two-year-old daughter contracted the first known case of the Hong Kong flu to hit Europe. “How things change,” he noted. “The stock market did not plummet, we were not besieged by the press, men in breathing apparatus did not invade my daughter’s play group.”
The global response to COVID-19 couldn’t stand in starker contrast. Leaders have made the decision to do everything possible, including bringing entire economies to a crashing halt, to limit the loss of life. They’ve swept aside considerations of the negative health effects of locking people inside with a virus that spreads most virulently indoors. People who’ve been denied nonemergency surgeries are expected to comply and shut up about their pain, even though some will undoubtedly die from their conditions.
Joel Hay, a professor of pharmaceutical economics and policy at the University of Southern California, told me that the role of science has also changed. Medical technology has vastly improved from a time when people still did computations on slide rules. But the data it produces has seduced some into thinking that we know more than we actually do and that we can produce useful models to predict the course of this novel coronavirus disease. “We’re being bombarded with data, but we often act like the guy who looks for his keys under the lamppost because the light is better there,” he told me. “We aren’t asking more fundamental questions, like ‘Does this $20 trillion experiment in lockdowns actually work?’” __ Source
Remember:
- go to work
- stay away from crowds
- maintain a 2 meter distance
- wash your hands
- wear a mask in public
- don’t touch your face
- don’t shake hands
- keep public surfaces clean/disinfected
- wear cotton gloves in public, change and wash often
In the grocery store:
Rational social distancing and personal protection just makes sense, as we have been saying. Total lockdowns do not make sense. The Gestapo must be destroyed.
al fin next level 