I will not live in fear of catching a cold . . .
I will not die an unlived life. I will not live in fear of falling or catching fire. I choose to inhabit my days, to allow my living to open me, to make me less afraid, more accessible; to loosen my heart until it becomes a wing, a torch, a promise. I choose to risk my significance… __ Source
One of the best antidotes to fear is information.
What Are Your Chances of Catching Wuhan CoV-19?
The risk of catching the Wuhan virus out of doors from breathing is negligible. The indoor risk when maintaining a 1 to 2 meter distance from others is also quite low. The closer the distance and the longer the time of exposure, the larger the risk of spread.
What About Shopping, Going to Work, or Going to Church?
By accessing the case counts in your area from county data over a specific time period of contagion (about the last 15 days), you can determine the probability that a random person in your community is contagious with the Wuhan CoV-19. By taking that probability and raising it to the power of the number of people you are likely to encounter — at church, shopping, at work etc. — you can arrive at a rough estimate of the probability that you will be in contact with an infected person.
If you do not live in New York City, Los Angeles, or other large cities with high case counts, your area probably has a low number of contagious people walking around. In that case, going shopping etc. — while maintaining basic social distancing measures and infection precautions — is reasonably safe, as is going to church or work.
Remember: The higher the dose of virus, the more likely that you will get infected and develop an illness. The dose of virus from contact with an infected person depends upon how close you are, how long you remain close, and whether your face and hands are protected — for very close exposure that means gloves, masks, face shields etc. Hand washing and disinfectants can help to reduce the number of viable viruses on your person.
What Are Your Chances of Having the Infection if You Test Positive?
That depends upon the particular test, and how well it is performed. But it also depends upon the local prevalence of the disease in your area — or in the areas where you have recently traveled. A positive test result does not mean that you have the disease. The conclusion below is supported by several paragraphs of detailed information. I recommend taking several minutes and skimming the text at the link:
The probability that an individual has had COVID-19 after a positive result from a [perfectly performed] test is less than 50%. __ Toward Data Science
Read the article and you will see that false positives/negatives and sensitivity/specificity are just the beginning of the calculations to determine the probability of infection, given a positive test.
What Are Your Chances of Dying if Infected with Wuhan CoV?
As you can see in the graph below, age has a lot to do with whether you will get sick and die, once infected.
A lot also depends upon your underlying health status, and where you live. Don’t forget your mental state. If you are paralyzed with fear your immune system will not be working as well as it could.
The “panic prescription” being handed out by most of the news media and radical governors and health officers, is a prescription for ever more hardship, sickness, and death.
Religion is for people who fear hell, spirituality is for people who have been there.
__ David Bowie
And panic-mongering is for people who want everyone else to live in hell, just to spite them.
A different type of “herd immunity” is described:
Studies show that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 indeed have T-cells that are programmed to fight this virus. Surprisingly, people never infected also harbour protective T-cells, probably because they have been exposed to other coronaviruses. This may lead to some level of protection against the virus – potentially explaining why some outbreaks seem to burn out well below the anticipated herd immunity threshold.
Young people and those with mild infections are more likely to have a T-cell response than old people – we know that the reservoir of programmable T-cells declines with age.
In older people, the thymus involutes — shrivels and loses function. That may be one reason older people are so susceptible to serious illness from the Chinese virus.
New York’s Governor Cuomo screwed the pooch, killing an outsized number of New Yorkers in the process. But he is pointing the finger at everyone except the true villain, himself. Trying to pretend that the governor of Florida did a poor job compared to himself, Cuomo comes across as a prancing duplicitous jerk.
Florida has a larger population than New York state but has registered fewer than one-third as many coronavirus cases. Florida has seen 15 COVID-19 fatalities per 100,000 population; New York, 160. With 46,000 deaths between them, New York and its sibling New Jersey have combined for more fatalities than France, Spain and Italy.