China Approaches its “Great Depression” Moment

China is a large, complex power. But over the past decade, China’s power has been vastly overestimated… Public opinion is a poor guide for judging national power. China is now entering a period most powerful nations go through, and a worshipful world will now exercise contempt. With contempt comes an appetite for changes in foreign policy. But in the case of China, I see the risk of war, minimal in the past, disappearing along with vast amounts of money China used to make itself seem a global power.

Geopolitical Futures

No Coal for Christmas: Power rationing crisis in China

China is a giant “growth facade,” appealing to the easily fooled, but the national failure is clear to see for those with a better perspective.

China is in the midst of a systemic failure based on the increasingly irrational allocation of capital driven by market forces and state policy. It now faces an extended period in which the economy is shaped less by markets than by the state, and the state, which should be making long-term decisions regardless of short-term pain, understands that maintaining a society leads to demands that it function in a different time frame. Chinese President Xi Jinping isn’t kidding when he focuses on a “share the wealth” policy.

This will affect the entire world. After all, the Great Depression didn’t just ruin Americans. There was a global expectation that China had abolished the business cycle, and the growth of 40 years would become the growth of 80. Parallel to this exuberance was the belief that China was emerging as the dominant global power, building a global system based on investment and confronting the United States via its vast technological capabilities.

China’s Economic Crisis

Chinese growth is low quality growth. It is non-productive, based upon highly leveraged hocus-pocus. The attitude of party leaders toward the people: “Let them eat dirt.”

Just like in the now-dead USSR, GDP is an input — a dictate — rather than a credible economic output.

Poorly Made in China

Chinese buildings are some of the worst in the “developed world.” One reason for that is the poor quality of steel that reinforces the poor quality concrete that goes into their construction.

Chinese food is notoriously toxic, to babies, adults, and animals. Everything else in China is poisoned too.

Chinese schools are “notoriously overrated.” Cheating is pandemic, and “Chinese credibility” applies here as elsewhere.

Chinese universities are actually incredible overrated. They accept every international student as international student apply to increase their ranking. And they post tons of unqualified publications to increase their publication index to improve their ranking.

Kwak Yeong-Ji

This story alone should shame China cheerleaders into an abashed silence. There is no freedom of speech or communication in China — any attempt at freedom is punished by party enforcers. Often to the point of death. How could anyone make positive claims for China’s future when they are overlooking the most salient aspect of communist Chinese reality — nothing from China can be trusted?

Most China boosters in the west are that way because they have a vested interest — they are being paid or compensated in some way to be dishonest. But some are honestly deluded, and for them we should feel mainly compassion, in spite of all the harm they are doing.

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4 Responses to China Approaches its “Great Depression” Moment

  1. bobsykes says:

    Frankly, I regard this post and the previous one as CIA disinformation, or better dysinformation. Go read David Goldman’s post today at Asia Times. China has begun the fourth industrial revolution, base on 5G networks running AI. The US doesn’t even have 5G bases. Verizon et al. are putting up 4G+ bases, which are greatly inferior to Huawei’s true 5G in terms of bit rate, band width and latency.

  2. alfin2101 says:

    Huawei executives themselves refer to their 5G as “fake, dumb, and poor.” That also decribes the Chinese economy as a whole rather well.

  3. China may face a brief recession due to real estate speculation/energy shortages, but long-term China’s future looks bright because they have a government that is flexible and capable of adjusting as needed to solve problems.

    [Admin: Nonsense. Solving problems requires a fixed frame of reference, in order to define goals, problems, and possible methods of solution. That would imply some form of rule of law, which binds government officials to act within certain guidelines. Instead, China has a “rule of Xi” which is quite unpredictable unless you happen to be living inside Xi’s head.

    People who live outside of dictatorships that are run according to the personality cult, can only gape at superficialities, without understanding. Even the simple question of “what constitutes a problem?” takes on a surrealistic color tone when viewed from the cobbed brain of a self-centered dictator.]

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