Urbanization, Fertility, and Aging: Demography Primer

Urbanization contributes to decreased fertility. Decreased fertility leads to an aging population. The video below is an excellent primer on these most significant demographic trends.

A Useful Primer of Demographics

It is not only Japan, Russia, Italy, and Spain with shrinking populations. That trend is rapidly spreading to all but the poorest countries of the world. In sub Saharan Africa and the poorest nations of Asia, populations will continue to explode for some time.

What does this mean in terms of war, peace, prosperity, and hardship? Average human IQ will decline, and there will be a lot more unintelligent and impoverished people, especially in Africa. But it is possible that the high tech parts of the world can keep innovation and general prosperity going in spite of the global IQ bust.

As the US necessarily pulls back from being the global policeman, you can expect several major wars to break out at particular geopolitical chokepoints in the resulting vacuum.

More in the video below:

Zeihan doesn’t waste a lot of time talking about Russian demographics. That ship has sailed and won’t be coming back. But as Russia’s brightest continue to emigrate outward to countries with a future, they will have an impact in many ways, including through their children.

The combination of population decline in the advanced world plus the general withdrawal of US military power from many parts of the world, will result in greater instability and a precipitous decline of technological expertise and humanitarian aid going to the impoverished parts of the world with low population IQs, such as sub Saharan Africa.

The challenge for the more prosperous world will be to try not to allow itself to be dragged down into the inevitable long hell-train of catastrophic crises that will be generated by the impoverished world plus the perennial mischief-making that is done by would-be empire builders such as Putin and Xi as they see their megalomaniacal dreams crumbling before their eyes.

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5 Responses to Urbanization, Fertility, and Aging: Demography Primer

  1. Abelard Lindsey says:

    I got news for you Mr. Zeihan. The Millennials are not having many kids. The more their economic situation sucks, the fewer kids they will have.

    • alfin2101 says:

      I know several female friends who waited until their 40s to have their children. We should give Millennial women the courtesy of their full allotment of time as women of child-bearing age. 😉

  2. Abelard Lindsey says:

    That Gulf News article about Russian population decline had to throw in the usual covid-19 social distancing and vaccination crappola. Typical for a news story which is really propaganda.

    • alfin2101 says:

      The Russian population declined by about 1 million people last year according to official sources, so people feel the urgent need to scramble for explanations. A corporate media journalist always feels safe right in the middle of the herd.

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