Russian President Vladimir Putin calls his armored forces “peacekeepers,” sent to protect ethnic Russians threatened by Ukrainian genocide.
No one sane believes it. Putin leverages the bloody script Slobodan Milosevic’s Serbia used in the 1990s to justify invading Bosnia and Croatia, waging a war in Europe that left some 250,000 dead.StratPage
Ukraine is the original country of the Rus. The richness of Ukraine has made it an attractive target for many invaders. Putin’s modern barbaric regime is just the latest in a long line, but today’s Russia is suffering a demographic crisis and shortage of high tech military parts that makes its invasion threat less credible in the long run.
Ukraine has a longer history than Russia, Ukraine has a more coherent identity than Russia, and Ukraine is a rising state while Russia is a failed empire and a failed state.
… Ukraine is rediscovering and consolidating its identity, Russia grapples with an insecure identity. The Russian Federation has failed to establish a civic identity to which most citizens would subscribe regardless of their ethnic background. Instead, the country has witnessed constant identity battles between ethnonationalists, imperialists, federalists, regionalists, and non-Russians.
While Ukraine is developing a democratic state, despite its institutional and economic problems, the Russian Federation has been unable to transform itself into a nation-state or a civic state. Russia’s numerous weaknesses are exacerbated by an overdependence on unpredictable fossil fuel revenues, its stark socioeconomic inequalities and demographic defects, widening disparities between Moscow and its federal subjects, a precarious political pyramid based on personalism and clientelism, deepening distrust of government institutions, increasing public alienation from a corrupt ruling elite, and widespread disbelief in official propaganda. The Russian Federation is approaching the end of a regime cycle, and the Kremlin is tightening repression against any sign of opposition.
Escalating internal problems have evidently convinced Putin that a bolder and riskier foreign policy strategy may bring domestic benefits by mobilizing citizens around “fortress Russia.” However, a deeper military attack on Ukraine could be Putin’s biggest miscalculation and will accelerate Russia’s failures. The war would come home to Russia with a growing toll of military and civilian deaths, economic decline propelled by Western sanctions, and spreading public opposition to Kremlin policy that kills “fellow Slavs” and “fellow Orthodox” Christians. Such a war will further unearth Russia’s decaying imperial structure.Source
Russia was long dependent upon Ukraine for the production of high quality gas turbines for planes, ships, and helicopters. When Ukraine stopped supplying high tech engines and guidance systems to Russia after the invasion of Crimea, Russia tried to turn to China. But China can’t make a reliable jet engine either. Russia is a backward country that depends upon more advanced nations for the high-tech parts required to run its weapons systems.
Russia can’t make a reliable high bypass turbofan, gas turbine peakers or durable diesel engines. They rely on Pratt Whitney, GE and Rolls Royce for big turbofans, Solar Turbines for peakers and Caterpillar for their big truck engines. They have to have their non nuclear powered ice breakers built in Finland. All that goes away if Russia invaded Ukraine, and China doesn’t build reliable replacements.Source
Uncultured and backward, Russia now cannot even manufacture new generations of Russians, as the latest generations of Russians are without hope and half just want to leave. Russia is losing people at the rate of 1 million per year.
Russian troops have occupied parts of Ukraine for eight years and running. If Russian troops are just now moving into Ukraine in February of 2022, that would be a huge surprise to Ukrainians that have been suffering under the Russian presence all of these years.
Is the Next Move a False Flag Operation?
Russian propagandists’ molding of Russian public opinion provides adversaries with advance notice of what the Kremlin has in mind. TASS’s emphasis on the Donbas reveals that the most likely plan is for the Kremlin to cook up a false flag operation, which gives the go-ahead for DNR and LNR troops to attack. As they are pushed back by superior Ukrainian forces, they will issue a call to their Russian comrades to come to their defense. The war is joined – or is the war simply resumed? Can it be limited, or will it get out of control?A Nation of Lies Now and Forever
The EU is attempting to appear tough in the face of Russia’s new expansion of an old invasion of Ukraine. But Germany has a fatal dependency on Russian gas supplies. Germany has almost completed the closure of all of its nuclear plants and is set to progressively close its coal plants. That will leave the country without any reliable source of heat and power, except for natural gas. All of Germany’s solar and wind projects are of an intermittent and unreliable nature, like almost all wind and solar projects. An industrial nation that wants to be taken seriously in the world cannot run itself on intermittent and unreliable energy. Nations such as Germany — without reliable native heat and power sources — are at the mercy of fossil fuel suppliers who are often political enemies.
Yet Another Reason for Educated and Skilled Russians to Leave
Already, two or three years ago, more than half of young educated Russians wanted to leave the country. But with the threatened prospects of a hot war against the freer and more modern Ukraine — the original home of the Rus — young men and women will find a more pressing argument for getting out while the getting is good.
Russia owes much to Ukraine, and should be thanking the more vibrant country to its west for giving it life, rather than trying to destroy it as Putin threatens to do. But Ukraine owes much less to Russia than most Russians seem to believe in their propaganda-sated minds.
Would China Take Advantage of Russian Distraction?
China has long wanted to seize control of the more inventive and dynamic country Taiwan. With the world distracted by Russian violence against peaceful Ukraine, China could very well attempt to invade and conquer peaceful Taiwan. That would be a convenient Russian distraction for the Chinese. But the Chinese would likely demand additional compensation from Russia. Ukraine is an important trading partner for the Chinese, with Ukraine producing many advanced military parts and systems that China can still not produce for itself. China does not want to lose that critically important supply chain due to Putin’s stupidity.
Nobody really likes the drunken would-be empire with a shrinking demographics. There is too much unpredictability associated with a large-scale Russian expansion of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Anything could happen in response to a Russian miscalculation, and things could spiral out of control quickly. It would be in character for a massive clusterfuck to become Putin’s lasting legacy, but that might be something that the chief of thugs would wish to avoid.