Peter Zeihan, George Friedman Map Out Russian Invasion, Air Strikes, and Ukrainian Civilian Resistance

Ukraine is about twice as large as Texas. It is close to the size of Afghanistan, still referred to in Russia as “the graveyard of Russian boys.” Known as the breadbasket of Europe for its rich farmland, it is populated with clever people who know how to make weapons, and who have been learning to fight against Russians for the past eight years. Ukraine is the country of the original Rus and of the original Eastern Orthodox Church. By destroying Ukraine, Putin is destroying the mother of Russia.

Ukraine has shot down several Russian planes and helicopters

Putin Provides Demo Invasion Preview

With an area of 603,628 sq. km (which also includes the area covered by the Crimean Peninsula), Ukraine is the 2nd largest country by area in Europe and the 46th largest country in the world. With a population over 42 million people, Ukraine is the 7th/8th most populous county in Europe and the 32nd most populous country in the world.

In 1994, US President Bill Clinton promised Ukraine that NATO would defend the country, if only Ukraine would surrender its nuclear weapons to Russia. Of course, that promise was not Clinton’s to make, but politicians do tend to make their promises anyway. NATO can only bluster against Putin’s brutal attack, but weapons will mysteriously find their way crossing into Ukraine anyway, just as weapons found their way into Afghanistan when the Russians occupied the country.

Peter Zeihan’s View:

In the video above, Peter Zeihan lays out the probable Russian battle plan to quickly topple Ukraine’s government. According to Zeihan, Putin’s goal is to replace the legitimate government of Ukraine using invasion and occupation. Putin may have underestimated the forces of long-term resistance that remain in Ukraine, now that large numbers of Russian-speaking Ukrainians have relocated to Russia.

George Friedman expects the Russian invasion to be more of an “invasion-lite,” or a demo invasion. If a display of “shock and awe” can cause the government of Ukraine to collapse with minimal infrastructural and civilian damage, Putin may settle down to administer a more compliant population of neo-serfs in Ukraine.

Putin Has Been Attacking Ukraine for Eight Years Now

Both Friedman and Zeihan suggest that Europe (except for Germany) may present more resistance to Putin than he is counting on. The entire gamble is full of unpredictable factors which Putin is far too stupid to comprehend. He has gotten away with his mafia steamroller tactics for over 20 years, so he feels immune to reality. Unless this is just a “shock and awe” demo invasion to scare Ukraine into compliance, Putin’s (and Russia’s) exposure to total disaster will be very high.

A rapid collapse of the Ukrainian government would make Putin believe that he had won. But what happens next? 95% of the people who are still in Ukraine do not want to live under the thumb of a violent, unpredictable, kleptomaniac Russia. How far will the resistance spread? Into Belarus? Into Russia?

This is a war that can easily escalate beyond all expectations

Russians protest brutal attack on Ukraine — Putin smashes his own people with violence

The world holds Russia accountable for every death

Russians will suffer as a result of Putin’s miscalculations. Thoughtful people must ask whether China tricked Putin into exposing himself, so that China could do to Russia what Putin is trying to do to Ukraine.

Russia’s unfortunate reality:

Russian men tend to die very early of many causes, including those related to alcohol consumption. Russian men tend to begin drinking at an early age, and continue drinking to excess until death takes them, usually prematurely. Putin is giving them more reasons to drink with every passing day.

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3 Responses to Peter Zeihan, George Friedman Map Out Russian Invasion, Air Strikes, and Ukrainian Civilian Resistance

  1. Abelard Lindsey says:

    George Friedman and Peter Zeihan make one set of predictions of how this will play out. Vox Day makes a very different set of predictions for how this plays out. We get to see who turns out to be right.

    Even though Friedman and Zeihan, in particular, make good points. I actually with Vox Day on this one for now. The reason is that I agree with Day’s assertions that there are international organizations and special interest groups of a very pernicious nature (WEF, Davos crowd, George Soros, etc.) that have been engaging in a lot of destructive activities in the Ukraine and many other places (“color” revolutions, for example, which are clearly not genuine revolutions in any sense). I think Putin’s intent is to drive these pernicious institutions out of Ukraine.

    I would like to run these pernicious organizations and individuals out of the U.S. as well.

    • alfin2101 says:

      It appears to me that such thinking is a form of projection, wishful thinking. Everyone is looking for a hero to come riding out of the clouds to save the day. Heavens help anyone who sees Putin as such a hero. Of course he will accept the adulation, but his goals are his own and for himself. The Russian people are serfs to him. People like Vox Day might be seen as useful idiots by Putin, if he regarded them as meaningful at all, which he does not.

      At this point, virtually the entire world hates Putin — and by extension, Russia. The only exception might be the ComChis and anyone who takes Russian propaganda seriously. NATO is slowly uniting in the urgent sending of anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. Even non-NATO countries are sending weapons and supplies to Ukraine.

      If Ukrainian civilians start fighting using molotov cocktails and assault rifles, Putin’s little clusterfuck might bring out more than a mere thousands of Russian demonstrators on the streets of Moscow and St. P. A war against civilian insurgents will not look good on any kind of screen, Russian propaganda or not.

      • Abelard Lindsey says:

        I now remember why you feel as you do about Putin, and the Russians by extension, for probably what is very good reason. My comments were made from very much a domestic perspective and, thus, are likely not relevant to the issue.

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