Putin’s Slav vs. Slav War Could Last Years

Putin’s War Will Destroy Russia by Nina Krushcheva … By attacking another European country, Putin crossed a line drawn after World War II – and changed the world. But he also changed Russia, from a functioning autocracy into a Stalinesque dictatorship, a country characterized by violent repression, inscrutable arbitrariness, and a massive brain drain. While the fortunes of Ukraine, Europe, and the rest of the world after the shooting stops remain to be seen, the outcome for Russia is all too obvious: a future as dark as its darkest past. __ Nina Krushcheva, Great Granddaughter of Nikita Krushchev

Putin has no intention of stopping with the genocidal destruction of Ukraine. He wants to sweep across all of eastern Europe. But how much time does he have left, and will his backers let him take it to the limit?

75 percent of young Russians (aged 23-25) are against the war, but this attitude shifts with age. In the middle-age group, for example, only 35 percent are against the war, and among those over 60, the figure is 22 percent. To put this in context, young people (aged 15 to 30) constitute roughly a 20-percent share of the country’s population of 146 million, so the overall attitude tilts toward older and usually more conservative groups. Within the same vein, a February 28 survey conducted by the marketing research firm Russian Field and political activist Maxim Katz showed that almost 59 percent of respondents supported the “special military operation,” but the level of support was lower among younger people (18-29)—slightly over 40 percent—and higher among the older ones (60+)—over 70 percent. __ Why Russians Long for War in Ukraine

Of course, Russia is a multi-ethnic empire rather than a unified country. Getting reliable information about political opinions from the distant empire far from Moscow, is virtually impossible.

Ukrainians Do Not Want to Be Serfs and Slaves

Credible War Games Suggest Putin’s War Could Easily Last Years

Ultimately, both sides lack the forces to achieve their ideal outcomes. Without a political compromise, we predicted the military aspects of this conflict will be characterized by stalemate, limited advances, high casualties, and massive equipment attrition on both sides over the next twelve months. Given Putin’s political position, the Russian army will be under heavy pressure to achieve success, which may lead to desperate employment of chemical weapons and/or tactical nuclear weapons to end the battlefield stalemate. However, players assessed that resorting to such tactics invites a United States and NATO response that would be cataclysmic for Russian hopes of ultimate success.

Reluctance on behalf of the United States and NATO to intervene hampers the development of logistics infrastructure needed to provide humanitarian assistance. The wargame indicated a growing demand for some international intervention to address the humanitarian crisis. The wargame also indicated that there are opportunities to conduct limited interventions to preserve and protect humanitarian concerns without presenting a direct challenge to Putin’s political and military operations. A bias toward avoiding the risk of escalation should not prevent consideration of intervention scenarios, such as humanitarian corridors or the establishment of safe havens within Ukraine.

The wargame allowed for differing levels of force generation under several scenarios. The establishment of a force generation capacity to train and equip shattered or new Ukrainian formations, outside of Ukrainian territory, had a marked positive impact in Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defensive positions. Similarly, anything that can be done to interfere with Russian force regeneration further limited its capacity to conduct further assaults. Still, without a sustained flow of munitions and equipment, Ukraine will be challenged to maintain its defensive positions.

As for Russia, the game indicated that it will soon lack sufficient trained infantry to capture any major Ukrainian city after Mariupol falls, and will be unable to capture, nor even threaten the defensive viability of, Kyiv or Odesa. Kharkiv remained at risk of becoming isolated. But the wargamers assessed Russia lacks the combat power to quickly seize the city. Kharkiv may be able to hold out until year’s end and beyond unless the Russians halt all other operations to mass combat power around the city. Even then, such an assault will be an extremely costly operation, leaving Russia scant resources to do much else, while opening other areas to Ukrainian counterattack.

Modern War Institute

It is not clear how long Russia can maintain its ability to sell fossil fuels to Europe in a war that could easily spread to destroy Russian infrastructure. Oil storage is limited, and much of Russia’s oil production will have to be shut in — probably for years. If more Russian oil depots and shipping points are destroyed in the vicinity of the Black Sea — which seems very likely — a high proportion of Russian oil production may be shut in.

Russian expansionism has always existed, for many centuries. This is nothing new. It has always been under authoritarian control — whether political/criminal dictatorship or monarchy. Its people have always been serfs in reality, if not in name.

The video above suggests some of the reasons why Russia can never have a stable country with property rights and rule of law, as long as Putin remains the major force in the Russian power structure.

By 2050, The Old Soviet Generation Will be Dead

Russia does not have a civil society, nor does it have a strong common moral code. Civil society is a threat to the criminal government of Russia. There is no cohesive force holding contemporary Russia together other than the fevered dreams of empire that Putin feeds the people to cover over the many crimes of himself and his cronies. After the disruptive discontinuity of the Soviet era followed by the turbulence of the 1990’s, Russia has no backbone or coherent vision. Only propaganda and the many state police and security agencies. Just as the USSR disintegrated in 1991, the Russian “Federation” will decompose itself as Putin and his ex-Soviet cohorts die off and as what remains behind is no longer strong enough to contain all the stress and strain.

A long war in Ukraine will continue to bring out the totalitarian fascism inherent in Putinism, which will totally eradicate any vestiges or nascent traces of civil society. This long war will further isolate Russia from any ties with the free world, and will cement its suicidal ties to China.

By 2040 or 2050, as Russia’s population crashes and only Chinese influences remain strong, Russia will exist only as a much diminished provider of natural resources to China. China has no need to invade or threaten Russia. Thanks to Putin, the entire land mass will be rolled out like a red carpet, and no one will see China as anything but rightful owner. That is Russia’s ghost of Christmas future, as the long inter-Slavic war winds on.

Putin May Choose the Nuclear Option

It is what he wants. But he is afraid of making Xi nervous, and he needs Xi to back his play. He can escalate beyond a certain point only if he first clears the action with his padrone. Putin is now comfortable making Russia a vassal state of China.

So how much destruction does Xi want Europe and Russia to suffer before he pulls the plug on Putin? He wants to make sure that no impediments remain to prevent him from getting what he wants.

Can Putin pull back and claim victory out of all the smoke, rubble, and dead bodies?

[Putin] can reach a genuine cease-fire, but if he does, he’s finished. Not being able to defeat the Ukrainians, and held in contempt by others, destroys the myth of his power. Continuing the war endlessly reveals the same thing. As this goes on, Putin’s primary task is to pretend that the defeat is not happening because anything less than victory is a defeat. Every agreement must end in betrayal, and as it happens with guerrillas, they get stronger the longer the war drags out.

…every day the war goes on, Putin gets weaker. Ukraine should not be able to resist, NATO should not be united, American economic warfare should not be so powerful. Putin is growing more desperate. He has mumbled about nuclear weapons, the sign of utmost desperation. But he knows he and anyone he may love will die in a nuclear exchange. Even if he is prepared to commit suicide rather than capitulate, he knows that the order to launch must go through several hands, and each of those hands knows that the counterstrike will kill their loved ones. Therein lies the weakness of nuclear war: Retaliating is one thing, initiating another. Putin trusts few people, and he doesn’t know how reliable anyone would be in this situation – nor what the Americans might do if they saw preparation for a Russian launch.

Geopolitical Futures

In Putin’s mind, he is already at war with NATO and America

China had best learn its lessons from Putin’s mistakes

The losses for Putin continue to mount

Rumbles of mutiny across Russian front lines

How the mafia state of Russia begins to irrevocably lose support of the people

China has many choices now. Its best choice is probably to egg Putin on until he is so deeply wedged into a crevice that he cannot move without Xi’s okay. Russia’s nest egg of nukes and delivery systems would make a fine trophy for Xi.

Bonus Feature: Peter Zeihan Says John Mearsheimer is full of horseshit!

Russia is long overdue for a very serious downsizing. China wants its piece of flesh, but there are plenty of others standing in line for payback.