Half Putin’s Brain Tied Behind His Back

Moving under a dark cloud of war crimes, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is redirecting toward the eastern part of the country, to the area known as the Donbas. This is what the Kremlin now says is the main objective of Russia’s invasion and war. Everything in the war so far has happened by design, and the invasion plan is on schedule.

Battlefield Heats Up

This means that instead of losing the war so far, the Russian invaders are actually winning. This must come as a huge relief to supporters of Putin back in Moscow. A lot of western propaganda has been hinting that Russia may be losing the war in Ukraine. But since the Kremlin says clearly that Russia is actually winning, we know that this western propaganda is not true.

No, Really: Who Is Winning? An Objective Analysis

Perun is a no-bullshit analyst who has no dog in the fight. As a result, his analysis is more objective than most of what you can find on YouTube:

Who is Winning, Really?

There can be no doubt that Russian troops have been committing war crimes in areas they have occupied inside Ukraine. But that can be considered in the way of “recreation” for Russian troops throughout history, dating back to the Mongolian Empire.

By focusing on the Donbas and on the Black Sea coast of Ukraine, the Russian military is in position to do a significant amount of damage to the sovereign nation which is the original birthplace of the Rus. Still, an open supply corridor through Poland will allow western nations to continue to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft, anti-tank, and anti-ship missiles and drones.

One cannot assess who is the winner and who is the loser in an armed conflict, merely by counting destroyed vehicles and aircraft shot down. Russia had a lot more vehicles and aircraft to lose, so you cannot judge winners and losers by that metric. In fact, you could say that losing a lot of planes and tanks is good for Russia’s economy, since the act of building more tanks and planes will help to boost Russia’s GDP. The same cannot be said for the loss of Russia’s fighting men, of course. Russia is finding it more and more difficult to replace those, and not quickly.

Clearly Putin has been fighting this war with one side of his brain tied behind his back. This was probably done to make the Ukrainians and their western backers over-confident. At least that is the message coming from the Kremlin. So why are people like George Friedman saying that Putin miscalculated and is getting weaker? For example:

Putin’s war plan is shattered. The resistance has been effective and his troops need a relief he cannot provide. Putin will feint in other directions – perhaps in the Baltics or Moldova – but he lacks the force to fight on another front. He can’t sustain this war easily, especially in the face of NATO soldiers who have so far stayed out of the fray.

Even so, I cannot predict what a leader will do in the end. But for now, it’s clear to me that Putin will cling to power and blame everyone around him. But every day the war goes on, Putin gets weaker.

How Will it End?

Russians are certainly paying a steep price for whatever it is that Putin is trying to do. The Russian financial system is using all of its resources trying to prop up the rouble, an impossible task in the long run. Stores are running out of goods, unemployment is skyrocketing, psychiatric medications are running out despite record demand. A nation that was already sick and impoverished is getting worse.

Prior to this invasion, there was still much fraternal feeling between many Ukrainians and many Russians. Now, that is gone. It may never come back, even after several generations. The people of that part of the world do not forgive easily.

Russia’s reputation in the free world has taken a deep face plant, although in the third world and in the world of totalitarian nations, Russia is not so much condemned as it is increasingly seen as a loser. But of course, that isn’t true, since the Kremlin says that Russia is winning.

Russia Faces Challenges Finding Enough Soldiers to Fight

This is a long term demographic challenge for Russia that is getting worse. Replacing destroyed and abandoned materiel is also proving a problem. This is how the Institute for the Study of War describes the current difficulties:

Russian efforts to generate replacement forces and produce new military equipment continue to face challenges. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 7 that the Russian military began recruiting conscripts who have been discharged from military service since 2012 and is summoning them for a special three-month training period before deployment to active units.[2] The General Staff additionally reported that Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine are currently residing in tent camps and face declining morale.[3] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 7 that Russian military enterprises are unable to fulfill military orders due to inflation and supply chain issues, which it attributed to the effects of western sanctions.[4] The GUR claimed it intercepted a Kremlin report on the inability of several companies to complete state contracts and discontent over the Russian Ministry of Defense forcing companies to produce orders at a loss.

ISW

Russia is a huge country, with rich natural resources. In a smoothly functioning world economy with harmonious ties to the outside world, Russia would have a bountiful income sufficient to give its citizens a rich life. Unfortunately, Mr. Putin has tied half of his brain behind is back over the past several decades, and the result is that the people of Russia are sick and impoverished, with short lifespans and low birthrates. The income of Russian enterprises is a fraction of what it should be due to neglect and corruption. What should have gone to the country’s physical infrastructure and to the people, has instead gone to insiders and their families and friends. Only in China might one find corruption and cruelty on this scale.

Chinese surgeons have been cutting out prisoners’ hearts while they’re still alive in a horror organ harvesting scheme, a study has claimed.

Times via NYP

The biggest advantage that the half-brained Putin enjoys is the utter stupidity of western governments when dealing with energy and climate issues. As long as western countries such as Germany and Canada choose to cripple themselves under delusional beliefs regarding energy and climate, even a corrupt, neglectful, and incompetent Russia can always find a foothold.

It is much worse than described in the video. Even if the massive quantity of materials was cheaply and readily available in an environmentally clean way, the energy produced by wind & solar is intermittent/unreliable. You cannot run an industrial country such as Germany, China, or parts of the USA, on unreliable and intermittent low quality energy. You must have the reliable and high quality electric power that comes from nuclear power plants, coal power plants, natural gas power plants, or hydroelectric power plants. Wind and solar are just good enough to get your country ruined. And their environmental effects are catastrophic.

This energy/climate stupidity so prominent in western societies, is the only thing that allows Putin to go on a bloody rampage across Europe — half brained or not.

It is not necessarily a contest between good guys and bad guys, nor is it a contest between smart guys and stupid guys. There is plenty of stupidity and unsavoriness to go around. Unfortunately for Putin, even with all the resource advantages that Russia possesses, the thoroughly corrupt and criminal nature of the Russian government creates levels of incompetence and inefficiency that make it difficult for the country to accomplish anything on a large scale — particularly when in competition with other nations that do not labor under the same degree of criminality and corruption at the highest levels.

More Peter Zeihan on the Russian worldview and how it has failed to adjust to a changing world:

The Russian people are not under pressure from a world that contains NATO and other independent peoples who do not want to be under the Russian slave yoke. But the mythical “Russian Empire” certainly is. The world is full of populations suffering from “empire nostalgia” who long for lost empires that will never exist again. Most of them never existed in the first place, at least not in the form that the lost souls of lost empire seem to believe. It is long past time for the mostly empty lands, the ethnically diverse lands of the former Russian empire, to go their separate ways.

Putin claims a “sphere of influence” based upon the history of the lost Russian empire and the lost USSR. But the world has changed — and is further changing at light speed. Ancient empires do not get to resurrect themselves and their former power just on the basis of claims of historical influence in certain lands. The neighborhoods have changed and the world around them. By pressing his case in blood, Putin is alone responsible for the catastrophes to come.

More:

More on China’s massive organ harvesting/murder scandal

25 million people trapped by invading Chinese soldiers

Chinese oil demand drops not because of pandemic but because of Xi’s overreaction to new variant

Xi wants dominion over everything, even the Chinese atypical coronavirus made in Wuhan. But the degree of control Xi wants, is impossible. On the other hand, global economic activity is suppressed by Putin’s war in Ukraine, so this may be a good time for many of China’s factories to shut down for maintenance and retooling.

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1 Response to Half Putin’s Brain Tied Behind His Back

  1. Craig says:

    I used to be fascinated by Russia. I am no longer. Back in the old days during the cold war I used to dream what the world might be like if the communism ceased behind the iron curtain. Then it happened – welcome to the new world!!! Within ten years it was clear nothing good awaited the world, nothing. Not only did the Russian people and their intelligence and creativity not change the world, America needing a new enemy so the weapons builders could continue to extract riches gave us the war on terror. Yeah, welcome to the new world, same as the old.

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