A demographic disaster in the making for Russia. Millions of civilians have left, besides all the war losses.
Probably the biggest problem for the Russian military is the unsustainable rate of casualties it is suffering. The Russian forces simply can’t replace the infantry that they are losing on the frontlines, and that has a direct effect on the ability of the Russian military to conduct large-scale, offensive operations.
Rusty War Machine Facing Losses
Russian invasion forces in Ukraine are suffering enormous losses in men and materiel. The brutal invader can eventually replace the large number of lost planes, helicopters, tanks, ships, and other weapons systems. But it cannot replace the tens of thousands of men who are being lost. Given the top-down nature of Russia’s primitive military system, it will be extremely difficult to replace its depleted officer corps.
As Russian troop losses in Ukraine continue to rise, reports of the 100th colonel killed by Ukrainian forces have emerged. It comes as Vladimir Putin is said to have sacked six generals for poor performance
Replacing Troops, Replacing Putin
Rumors are swirling around possible replacements for Vladimir Putin, should he be lost or — if necessary — replaced forcibly.
How Quickly is Russia Running Out of Precision Missiles?
The following video is an interesting overview of the dynamic balance of missile forces as the brutal Russian invasion of the sovereign nation of Ukraine continues.
Russia’s chaotic trade situation
Running Out of Troops
After more than a century of lies, deceit, poor leadership and heavy losses, the young Russian men who end up in the infantry, as well as their families, are refusing to be killed in another unnecessary war in Ukraine.
A Desperate Need for Cannon Fodder
Following the death of the USSR, Russians enjoyed a tenuous interaction with the rest of the world. Many Russians were quick to lose the “Us Against the Whole World” mentality that the Soviet propaganda state had smothered them with for several decades and took advantage of many of the opportunities that the larger world offered them. But now Putin has brought this stifling paranoia back, and unless Russians can jettison Putin, the nation may not survive this latest dip into the cold ocean of paranoid isolationism.
Understanding How Bad Russia’s Demographic Crisis Is
This video featuring demographer Nicholas Eberstadt has been embedded on this site before. But the raw and chilling reality of what is facing the nation of Russia cannot be overstated.
Knowing this, it is no surprise that Putin is scouring Russia’s prisons and hinterlands in search of ever more cannon fodder to pour into his epic invasion miscalculation. Death rates are high, birth rates are low, disease rates are high, and the numbers of healthy young people who will be capable of manning Russia’s future is shrinking to the vanishing point. Drugs, alcohol, violence, infectious disease, and rampant environmental toxicity combine with a pervasive sense of hopelessness. Who wants to die in Putin’s senseless war?
Those millions of Russian civilians who found themselves outside the country at the start of Putin’s war, should probably extend their overseas stays until things settle down — assuming they intend to go back eventually.
al fin next level 
The war will be over by this time next year and unless they are very lucky there will not be a country called Ukraine. All if that military aid is not to defeat Russia but to bleed them. AmDo look at the population pyramids for Russia, China Ukraine, Poland, the Valtic States and Germany. China is infinitely more worse off than Russia is. And Ukraine thanks to the war is as well. The others are as bad as Russia, if not worse off and they have better Healthcare, which is the only thing hiding how bad it is for them.
Whether there will be a country called Russia next year is open to question. The people of Ukraine are motivated to remain free of Russian slavery. The people of Russia have never been out of slavery.
Does not mater want Ulrainians want, artillery and starvation effect the righteous just as well as it effects the damned. And I did not say that Russia was not doomed as well. Just that others well go down before sjd after them. Ukrainian WILL fall, China WILL collapse because if the stupidity if the CCP, and once Russia is removed from the equations the people of the “Horde lands”, Turks will be let free and the Arabs will flee their owns lands due to starvation. While you have posted stuff from Zeihan you have not factored its full ramifications. Even if the U.S. WANTED to pay the cost to hold everything together, at this point we cannot. And that does not even factor in our internal issues.
Ukrainian motivation is the main thing that matters at this point. It is the only reason why outsiders are still supplying Ukraine with weapons.
I do not factor in the full ramifications of Zeihan’s predictions for a very good reason. They are only predictions, with a wide range of error. They are very provocative predictions with a modicum of support in the real world, which is why I find them interesting. But keep in mind that Zeihan has a long history of predictions, and the longer the history, the more his hands are tied when he tacks more predictions on. When you detect “bent predictions” as a result of a compulsion to conform with past predictions, it is best to be cautious in interpreting them.
Zeihan predicted that Russia would mop up Ukrainian resistance within a few weeks of the onset of Putin’s war. That did not happen, so now he is predicting that Ukraine will run out of weapons by early fall of this year, and then the Russians will mop up Ukrainian resistance — just as he had predicted. Except, that is not what he actually predicted. Zeihan is watching and learning from his mistakes, and eventually he will have to do a major revision. That is the risk of predicting the future.
There are many other examples I could mention, including Zeihan’s predictions for an abrupt fall in Russian oil production. Such a thing is still highly probable, but the timing is not always what is expected.
At this point, the US is likely to continue to supply weapons for several more months. But it is the gearing up of the war machines of Poland, Finland, Sweden, and other regional nations in support of Ukraine which Russia should be more concerned about. All of those countries are less corrupt and more efficient than Russia. Russia is fighting World War II style as if it were still the Soviet Union. But the country of Russia has undergone a significant transition — at least the educated portion of the country. If Putin lives long enough, he may discover his categorical error.