China’s Dizzy Decline Will Lead to War

Rise and Stall of China

China is heading for economic decline as its working age population crashes before the nation can find the innovation and worker productivity it desperately needs. China has been trying to make up for its ongoing decline by the accumulation of massive amounts of debt. But the “debt cure” is not working as well as it did 10 years ago. And it will work even less well 10 years from now, as the workforce slides downward in numbers leading to massive wage inflation and loss of foreign investment.

“If you add enough money to the system, you can keep refinancing the old debt, but you have to add money exponentially.”

The country has been exponentially incurring indebtedness, perhaps creating debt about seven times faster than it has been producing nominal gross domestic product.

Nobody knows how much debt China has accumulated, but total country indebtedness could be an amount equal to 350% of GDP. Because of the infamous “hidden debt” and Beijing’s misreporting—exaggeration—of economic output, the percentage could even be higher.

19Fortyfive

… headwinds to come include already-slowing productivity rates relative to the experience of other emerging economies. It’s often said that the Chinese might get old before they get rich. Turns out, China also might grow old before it gets sufficiently productive and innovative.

China’s Lost Decade Getting Worse

China has stolen intellectual property and processes from other nations and international corporations for so long, that it is becoming unable to do for itself. As China grows ever more isolated from the rest of the world, that will be a serious problem for the counterfeiting sneak thief.

Russia Pulling China to the Desperate Edge

… the evidence has increased that, first, Russia has few options, and second, China seeks a confrontation with the US and its allies. More likely than not, Putin knows that he holds a China card.

Spastic Putin Drags China into Desperate Vortex

Putin’s miscalculation in Ukraine has left him teetering over a precipice. He sees China as his best bet for surviving this crisis of his own making.

Ukraine acquires artillery shell to die for

What is the Basis of Infrastructure Problems in Black Ruled Locations?

In the US

In South Africa:

Infrastructure under black leadership video from South Africa

It is shocking how ordinary challenges of existence suddenly become huge insurmountable crises when control is transferred to people who are less competent and more corrupt than previous leadership. This has happened in cities such as Detroit and in countries such as Zimbabwe and South Africa. As the populations of countries in Europe fall and the populations of countries in subSaharan Africa rise, a transfer of populations northward to Europe will accelerate — leading to more transitions such as we have seen in Detroit and in Zimbabwe/South Africa.

Why can’t we simply substitute one group of people for another, and expect everything to continue to run as they have previously?

The world had best face up to this problem and decide what needs to be done to keep the lights on, the food on the table, and the homes/workplaces/schools safe, dry, and comfortable.

It is likely that war will break out in multiple locations, as food and energy shortages stretch national and international resiliency to the breaking point. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has lowered the threshold for future wars, due to its nonsensical justification and its particularly brutal execution and characteristics of genocide and ethnic cleansing.

If China decides to jump on the war train and invade Taiwan, the international threshold of war will be lowered even more.

Putin looked into the future and saw nothing but decline for Russia, unless he did something drastic. And so he invaded Ukraine based upon a long chain of delusional beliefs. As China’s future looks more and more bleak, Xi may arrive at similar conclusions and take similar actions. With both Russia and China engaged in brutal wars of conquest, would-be dictators and strong men around the world will look at broken supply chains for food, energy, medical supplies, technology, and other vital supplies and they will see windows of opportunity for carving out their own little pocket empires.

War fever can be contagious at times.

That is what Putin has unleashed, and what he wants to drag Xi into with him. It is true that neither Russia nor China has reason to be particularly optimistic demographically, economically, or in terms of global influence — outside of nuclear blackmail. If conventional war does not get them what they want, these two power-mad dictators may want to escalate to other forms of war that many countries have not prepared for.

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