Alternate Realities: Putin’s Magical Wand of Annexation vs. Military Realities on the Ground and Mass Exodus Out of Russia

First, Putin’s attempt at mobilizing young Russian men into the Russian army is leading to a mass exodus of young, capable men out of the country. Second, the new troops that are being sent to the Ukrainian front are mostly untrained cannon fodder, and are being obliterated by better trained and equipped opposition troops. Third, Putin intends to conscript young Ukrainian men in newly annexed territories of Ukraine in order to supply new troops to the front lines against their own countrymen. This is clearly a war crime, as are other Russian tactics such as kidnapping hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainian children and shipping them deep into Russia.

As a result of these and other shenanigans, Putin and Russia are being seen as monstrous and abhorrent by growing numbers of people — both inside and outside of Russia. And the Russian economy is in slow motion collapse.

Russian Troops Surrounded in Key Logistical Supply Hub

The potential recapture of Lyman puts a major brake on Putin’s ability to advance, or even hold, much of the Donbas, Clarke told Insider.

Lyman was to serve as the jumping-off point for Putin’s plan to take two other cities, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which would have sealed his control of the Donbas region, Clarke told Insider.

But Lyman’s likely loss puts that plan “out of the window,” he said. “It just can’t be done this side of the winter.”

A second reason Lyman’s recapture would be such a strategic blow is that it opens up a strategic path to completely cutting off Russia’s north-to-south supply routes, Clarke said.

Dismantling the Russian Supply Network

Russian forces have already conscripted almost the entire adult male populations of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and Ukrainian officials are justifiably concerned that Russia may do the same to all adult males of newly annexed Ukrainian territories. This could be considered to be the signing of Russia’s own death warrant by Putin.

Putin has confronted Russians with the following choice: die for meaningless lands or oppose me and risk being arrested. Some Russians will follow their political culture’s infatuation with death and opt for the first option; most, such as the 300,000 Russians who have already fled their country in the last week to avoid being mobilized testify, will not. Needless to say, with this level of military elan, the war will not go well for Putin.

Third, Putin has made it significantly more difficult for his successor to conclude the war. If the Ukrainian success in liberating their occupied territories continues—as it will—it’s perfectly possible that they will recapture most of Luhansk and Kherson provinces and much of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya provinces and Crimea within the next few months. That’ll be a body blow that Putin will be unlikely to survive. His successors may very well want to conclude peace by officially agreeing to cede some territory. But the Russian Constitution won’t let them, as it has no provisions for such an eventuality. This means that the war will continue, sanctions will remain in place, and Russia’s transformation into a third-world country with a lousy army and the bomb will continue apace.

Death of Russia at Putin’s Hands

Russia has already lost almost 60,000 men killed in Ukraine. As more poorly trained and equipped Russian men continue to be forced into the fighting, that number will continue to climb. The numbers of desertions, mutinies, captured, and wounded will likewise skyrocket — and it is becoming impossible to cover those numbers up in Russian media.

Russia is Headed for a Civil War

Putin’s mobilization of troops was meant to prevent the Russian army from being expelled from the Donbas of Ukraine. Putin’s annexation of multiple regions of Ukraine is meant to provide more conscripts-in-place for the Russian army and to provide Putin with an excuse should he choose to escalate the war with the use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.

It almost takes us back to the days of “Dr. Strangelove” and the dystopian world that much of the world was forced into by Soviet threats of nuclear war from the 1950s until the early 1990s when the USSR collapsed under its own weight. But that is Putin’s choice. He is Dr. Strangelove now, and much more. It is at Putin’s hands that millions of Russia’s best will finally make the difficult choice to leave Putin’s dystopia.

Those who stay behind will be divided into multiple categories which will make civil wars and war of secession — as well as a creeping takeover of the Far East by China — unavoidable.

All of this is happening much more quickly than Peter Zeihan had predicted. Watch and learn.

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4 Responses to Alternate Realities: Putin’s Magical Wand of Annexation vs. Military Realities on the Ground and Mass Exodus Out of Russia

  1. Roy Johnson says:

    Alfin, I love you like a red headed step child by I gotta say you are dead wrong on almost everything you are posting on Putin, Russia, and Ukraine. I could do a huge list but I rather you answer this: What has been happening to the Ethnic Russians in the Donbass since 2014? Take as much time as you need.



    • alfin2101 says:

      Thanks for the comment Roy. Everyone has the right to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. When entering the harsh realm of facts, one must open himself to contradiction from every direction, and then say “thank you sir, I’ll have another!”

      They did not welcome the Russian army with open arms!

      The best way to understand what has been happening to “ethnic Russians” in all parts of Ukraine including the Donbas in meaningful terms, is to observe how they are reacting to the Russian onslaught since Feb. 2022. They are violently angry at the murderous Russian invasion, and now hate Russia with all their hearts. What does that tell you about how they have been treated over the past 90 years since Stalin transplanted their ancestors to Ukraine? For the most part, they have assimilated to all practical purposes. Others moved to Russia after 2014 when it was clear that Russia would continue to stir the pot of violence until all out war was finally declared.

      Ethnic Russians have been suffering at the hands of various Russian governments for centuries, but being of largely serf stock they tend to absorb punishment while complaining in private behind closed doors. Witness the mass exodus of young Russians from Russia at the announcement off military mobilization by Putin. The problem of ethnic Russians is not Ukraine. It is the Russian government itself and the idiotic decisions and mafia style administration that it incorporates.

      • Roy Johnson says:

        I appreciate the reply and as far as your comment about facts I would say the exact same thing about you. Putin will win in the end. The slaughter of Ukrainians will continue as long as Zelensky is in power and our warmongers in DC keep supplying him. And you never mentioned 2014, US color revolutions, Victoria Nulled, etc, etc, ad nauseum.


        • alfin2101 says:

          Even Russians are seeing the truth now that Russian state media has been forced away from a strictly propaganda denial of war. Millions of young Russians are heading for the exits now that they understand the personal consequences of Putin’s folly.

          Unfortunately it is Putin who is killing the Russian speaking Ukrainians. Torture, murder, rape, every crime in the book, and that is why Russian speaking Ukrainians hate Putin, and now they hate all of Russia as well. As long as Putin is in power, a lot of people will die unnecessarily.
          Hitler used the same reasoning to invade to the East, and realistic analysts understand that this “ethnic excuse for invasion” is an excuse of convenience for someone who had already planned to invade anyway.

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