Late middle aged Russian men without combat experience are being forcibly conscripted and sent to the Ukrainian front, as cannon fodder. They are being scooped up by conscription crews in order to “fill quota,” regardless of their physical condition.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
- Ukrainian forces continued to liberate settlements east and northeast of Lyman and have liberated Torske in Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces withdrew from their positions northeast of Lyman, likely to positions around Kreminna and along the R66 Svatove-Kreminna highway.
- Ukrainian forces continued to advance on settlements east of Kupyansk and liberated Kisharivka in Kharkiv Oblast.
- Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults around Bakhmut, Vyimka, and Avdiivka.
- Ukrainian forces resumed counteroffensives in northern Kherson Oblast and have secured positions in Zolota Balka and Khreshchenivka. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also liberated Shevchekivka and Lyubymivka, pushing Russian forces to new defensive positions around Mykailivka.
- Russian forces continued to target Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv Oblast with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.
- Russian State Duma MPs withdrew a law that would have given mobilized men a one-time payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,980) and other benefits, without providing a reason for their decision. Ukrainian military officials stated that Russian forces are forming a motorized rifle division with mobilized men from Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and the Republic of Adygea.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a draft law to the State Duma on admitting the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, and Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, to the Russian Federation.
Institute for the Study of War
The Russian military is in an accelerated state of decay. Now everything is worse for Russia due to Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
The collapse of the Russian military will lead to a shakeup in the Russian government, and gross difficulty in the Russian economy and Russian society overall. But you cannot understand what is coming to Russia unless the blinders are taken off the eyes, and information sources are decensored from limited inflows.
Larger Consequences from Putin’s Folly
Europe Must Now Share in Russia’s Misery
The descent of Europe: A World Without Energy
The rapid economic collapse that Britain is facing is simply an accelerated version of what the whole of Europe is about to go through; unsustainable borrowing to fund the gap between high energy prices and what households can actually afford. With the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, there is now no feasible way back. Europe can no longer physically import Russian gas – prices will remain high until Europe builds more energy capacity, which could take years.
What is likely to come of this? High energy prices will render European manufacturing uncompetitive. European manufacturers will be forced to pass through the higher energy costs in the form of higher prices and consumers will find it cheaper to buy products from countries with normal energy prices. The only logical European response to the threat of widespread deindustrialisation is to raise tariffs. This is the only way to equalise prices between more expensive European goods and cheaper foreign goods, therefore artificially supporting European manufacturing. This strategy will lower living standards, depriving Europeans of cheaper goods, but it will at least preserve some manufacturing jobs. This process looks remarkably like the start of the Great Depression. In the 1920s, due to lopsided financial arrangements initiated in the Treaty of Versailles, western economies accumulated enormous amounts of debt.Europe’s New Dark Ages
This article describes the “green energy nightmare” which the Biden administration wishes to force onto the US. But in many countries of Europe that green energy nightmare has been made into a green energy horror, which required Putin’s folly in Ukraine to bring to a full horrific fruition.
Green energy is fantasy energy, dependent upon the whims of nature. But Europe depends upon reliable energy such as hydrocarbons and nuclear power to run its industrial infrastructure. Unreliable intermittent green energy cannot do anything but provide a smokescreen of virtue, which Europeans seem to value above and beyond genuine energy and power. That is their downfall.
Since Biden is similar to green energy in the sense of being intermittent and unreliable, it is no surprise that his fake administration is partial to the cause of green energy, the unicorn fantasy that is tearing Europe down.
It is no surprise to the well informed that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is proving a disaster for Putin. But it is also proving a disaster for Germany and other parts of Europe which have been pretending to build a massive green energy infrastructure, when what they were actually doing is covertly and desperately depending upon Russian hydrocarbons to run their life or death infrastructure. Now with the loss of Russian supplies their massive deception and unicorn pretense have been made visible to the world, and it is not pretty.
Things will only get worse, as Russia dips more deeply into the dwindling supply of viable males, reaching into older and older cohorts until it hits the dead end of Russia’s very low male lifespan. Russia has already eaten its seed corn — at least the seed corn that is unable to escape from Putin’s grasp across Russian borders. Now it is eating the corn that would not last very long irrespective of war or no war.
Ukraine has many of the problems that Russia has — they were both part of the deeply corrupt and moribund USSR. But Ukraine is trying to grow out of the old USSR style of incompetence. They are trying to come up to EU and NATO standards, Ukraine is trying to modernize. Russia is run by a mafia, and any modernization efforts would be a deadly threat to those who rule in Russia. Thus the great divergence between Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine is drowning in volunteers. These volunteers are receiving 6 months of training before mobilization to the front. They are getting good equipment. They have the motivation and the ability to improvise and operate independently. The Ukraine government has the support of its people.
Russia’s males of fighting age (18-65) are fleeing the country. They are getting out of town before the mafia leadership sends them to die on the front without any training at all, and without working equipment. Russian men are seen as nothing but cannon fodder by their corrupt leaders.
Russia has the longest border in the world, and not enough men to guard those borders. Soon, women will have to be conscripted to fill the gap. And then we will see the floods of women flowing out of the country, at least those with someplace to go.
Russian media is slowly being forced to reveal what is actually happening to the Russian public. Reality is gradually dawning on the people of Russia, and a long-suffering people of former serfs is beginning to awaken to the predicament that its criminal government has foisted on them.
In the stark light of reality — once it hits their eyes — the Russian people will withdraw their support from the Russian government. And that will be something that no one is accustomed to, not for a long time. The odds for civil war in Russia continue to rise.