Grabbing Men Off the Streets!
Without giving them a chance to say good-bye to their loved ones, Russian security forces are grabbing Russian men off the streets and shipping them to the meat-grinder of Ukraine. They are sent to war without training, without equipment, with little chance of ever coming home alive.
… hundreds of mobilized men from one city were sent to Ukraine and most were killed or wounded by Ukrainian artillery as they moved towards the front line. Their families back home discovered that many of the mobilized men were in hospitals receiving treatment and complaining that there was a shortage of personnel and supplies at the hospital. The government was reluctant to crack down on the wounded men or their families for going public with their complaints because of increasing attacks on the mobilization personnel and their local offices.
Some Russian media was reporting that many mobilized men were showing up in Ukraine and finding that the unit they were assigned to had few officers or veteran soldiers available to take charge and that troops already in Ukraine were not much better off. There were shortages of weapons, ammunition, food, medical care and shelter. The new recruits were forbidden to take their cellphones with them but, with no one supervising the new troops, it was easy to disobey the order and take their phones to Ukraine. That enabled many new soldiers to report back home that the situation was bad and there were so many of these reports from wounded soldiers in hospitals as well as those in Ukraine that news of the mess was picked up by the Russian mediaSource
Russian “Press Gangs” Even Operate Inside Moscow!
Police and military officers swooped down on a Moscow business center this past week unannounced. They were looking for men to fight in Ukraine — and they seized nearly every one they saw. Some musicians, rehearsing. A courier there to deliver a parcel. A man from a Moscow service agency, very drunk, in his mid-50s, with a walking disability. __ Source
In the east and in the south, hardened Ukrainian warfighters are pushing the invaders backward. Having defeated Russia’s professional army, they must now fight against convicted criminals, mercenaries, and any conscripted Russian men who were unable to get out of Russia ahead of Putin’s infamous press gangs.
… the Russian military is very much on the defense, with the Ukrainian forces enjoying the strategic initiative almost across the battlefield.
Several units consisting of reserve troops that Russian President Vladimir Putin partially mobilized in the closing of September have been deployed in Ukraine. However, they often lack basic warfighting equipment, such as body armor and modern helmets, and as a result, are much less effective on the ground.
“Many reservists are likely required to purchase their own body armour, especially the modern 6B45 vest, which is meant to be on general issue to combat units as part of the Ratnik personal equipment programme. Endemic corruption and poor logistics remain one of the underlying causes of Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.Source
Things Are Not Going Well in China Either
Xi is destroying everything he touches in China, with the opposite of a Midas touch. As the future of China and Russia go up in smoke simultaneously, it may be time for thinking people to consider whether the oppressive dictatorship style of government is really the way to go.
One Possible Future After the Fall of the Twin Tyrannies
east west of Russia after the fall, may well be divided between Finland, the Baltic states, and Ukraine — with Belarus going to Poland. The Far East would normally be taken over by China if not for Xi’s mismanagement and one-man tyrannical style of governance. Now it looks as if Japan and South Korea may have to take over Russia’s failures in the East.
Central Russia may well become a battleground between the various ethnic groups of Central Asia and the indigenous peoples of Siberia and Mongolia. Adventurous Han Chinese deserting the sinking ship of the CCP may also join in the fray.
Putin’s disastrous unilateral decision to invade Ukraine seems to be the catalyst that is triggering the slow collapse of Russia, and is helping to assist in the rapid decline of China as well. Demographic crises in both Russia and China will only compound the economic slide and national disintegration.
Best Months for China to Invade Taiwan
The best conditions in the Taiwan Strait for an invasion of the advanced island nation of Taiwan by the developing nation ruled by the CCP, typically occur during the months of October and April. Having consolidated his grip on the failing mainland, Xi has only a short window of operations before winter makes an invasion counter-productive this year.
By April of next year, Russia’s situation in Ukraine should be much clearer. Putin will probably have lost another 100,000 men to the meat-grinder by then, or more. China can afford to lose that many men in a senseless war of attrition, but Russia cannot.
Afghanistan was a war leading to the collapse of the USSR. Ukraine seems to be the war that is leading to the collapse of the Russian Federation. And Taiwan is likely to be a war that leads to the fall of the CCP.
At What Point Will Nuclear Weapons Be Used?
Russia’s conventional military forces have been allowed to degenerate, under the implied Kremlin belief that the threat of a nuclear attack would be sufficient to discourage any potential foe from fighting back against any conceivable Russian aggression.
For a threat to have any meaning, those at whom the threat is aimed must believe that the danger is real. If the threat is used too often without actual implementation, fewer people take the threat seriously with the passage of time.
But as disaster piles upon disaster for weakening Russian forces, it is Putin’s ability to command all aspects of Russia’s control structure which is called into question — both inside and outside of Russia. Putin has already mismanaged the Russian forces he has commanded, leading to an unnecessary loss of precious life. If the nuclear weapons force command accedes to Putin’s control, what further catastrophic destruction will that bring onto themselves and all of Russia?
Corruption, incompetence, and criminality rule every aspect of Russian society. Everyone in power inside Russia understands this, because that is how things are done everywhere in Russia. By invading Ukraine, Putin shone a bright light upon the degenerated state of Russia’s conventional military forces and on its military industrial complex which cannot build modern weapons and weapons systems without even the most rudimentary outside technological assistance. Over the coming winter months, Russia’s raw conscripts will suffer from the lack of their own military’s competence, without mercy from either mother nature or from Ukrainian fighters, partisans, or ordinary civilians.
Much better had Putin stopped at the borders, and used the threat of invasion to extract maximum concessions from Ukraine at the bargaining table. Then, his Potemkin forces might have maintained their illusionary prowess to the rest of the world.
Xi should heed that lesson.
Bonus Update 19 Oct 22:
Germany’s Apocalyptic Smackdown
… the last two years, and the last seven months in particular, have revealed [the German] model to be something of a Ponzi scheme. The entire German system, it turns out, depended on a never-ending supply of cheap Russian gas, immaculate just-in-time Chinese supply chains, and ever-expanding foreign markets.Germany’s Apocalypse Now
Worse, Germany is stuck with a destructive wind/solar demolition machine that is destined to bring the power grid that occupies the center of Europe down. Instead of bringing virtue to the German Republic, the intermittent/unreliable green energy scheme is bringing ruin.
Germany was never planning to depend on wind/solar, because wind solar is inherently unreliable and always will be — no matter what unicorn pie in the sky backup electricity storage schemes journalists and politicians may promise a gullible public. Any intelligent electric power engineer could have told them it wouldn’t work — if he was honest. Now there is hell to pay, and where is the guilty Schroeder when it is time to pay the piper? Merkel should be in the spotlight as well.
Americans should understand that Biden would sell the US power system down the river as well, if he had been in the same boat as Schroeder or Merkel. Just as Trudeau would sell Canada to the highest bidder, and the PM of Australia would do the same. These people are politicians, which means they are corrupt and quasi-criminal to their bones.
There is no solid rock or safe harbor at this time. The US dollar is surging in good part due to the Federal Reserve’s recent actions. Everything is relative, and Russia, China, Germany, and many other nations are not trending well at this time.
If Putin manages to seize control of nuclear launch codes from saner hands, a radical reconfiguration of global power and economic foundations may occur sooner than most analysts had predicted.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.
Update 20 Oct 22: